Serica Energy plc

AIM:SQZ Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.0b

Serica Energy Valuation

Is SQZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of SQZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: SQZ (£2.68) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (£3.39)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: SQZ is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SQZ?

Key metric: As SQZ is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SQZ. This is calculated by dividing SQZ's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SQZ's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.3x
SalesUS$601.43m
Market CapUS$1.41b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SQZ's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SQZ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.7x
ENQ EnQuest
0.4x-5.09%UK£359.6m
GKP Gulf Keystone Petroleum
3x15.99%UK£423.6m
ENOG Energean
1.2x5.63%UK£1.6b
CNE Capricorn Energy
2.2x11.43%UK£224.3m
SQZ Serica Energy
2.3x15.55%UK£1.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SQZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.3x) compared to the peer average (1.7x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SQZ's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

20 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BP. BP
0.6x1.19%US$118.85b
ROSN Rosneft Oil
0.1xn/aUS$21.03b
HBR Harbour Energy
0.7x-4.70%US$6.81b
DCC DCC
0.3x-0.99%US$5.91b
SQZ 2.3xIndustry Avg. 2.3xNo. of Companies20PS02.85.68.411.214+
20 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SQZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.3x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (2.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SQZ's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SQZ PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SQZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SQZ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£2.68
UK£2.88
+7.64%
11.34%UK£3.44UK£2.48n/a9
Apr ’27UK£2.66
UK£2.88
+8.47%
9.54%UK£3.39UK£2.51n/a9
Mar ’27UK£2.42
UK£2.63
+8.92%
12.31%UK£3.14UK£2.20n/a8
Feb ’27UK£2.15
UK£2.54
+17.92%
14.50%UK£3.09UK£1.97n/a8
Jan ’27UK£1.75
UK£2.47
+41.02%
15.94%UK£3.16UK£1.85n/a8
Dec ’26UK£1.72
UK£2.50
+45.78%
10.84%UK£3.06UK£2.14n/a8
Nov ’26UK£2.17
UK£2.46
+13.18%
12.55%UK£3.06UK£2.07n/a7
Oct ’26UK£2.02
UK£2.34
+15.66%
16.53%UK£3.15UK£1.90n/a7
Sep ’26UK£1.82
UK£2.27
+24.97%
11.83%UK£2.71UK£1.91n/a7
Aug ’26UK£1.63
UK£2.25
+37.92%
12.92%UK£2.72UK£1.91n/a7
Jul ’26UK£1.57
UK£2.23
+41.78%
14.80%UK£2.76UK£1.81n/a8
Jun ’26UK£1.53
UK£2.25
+46.79%
15.66%UK£2.80UK£1.84n/a7
May ’26UK£1.27
UK£2.40
+89.57%
15.37%UK£2.87UK£1.85n/a5
Apr ’26UK£1.45
UK£2.40
+65.08%
14.41%UK£2.93UK£2.00UK£2.664
Mar ’26UK£1.26
UK£2.27
+80.12%
16.49%UK£3.00UK£2.00UK£2.426
Feb ’26UK£1.41
UK£2.28
+62.00%
16.22%UK£2.98UK£1.99UK£2.156
Jan ’26UK£1.35
UK£2.30
+70.19%
18.47%UK£3.01UK£1.70UK£1.756
Dec ’25UK£1.29
UK£2.43
+89.18%
21.43%UK£2.97UK£1.68UK£1.724
Nov ’25UK£1.35
UK£2.47
+82.70%
21.24%UK£3.01UK£1.71UK£2.174
Oct ’25UK£1.35
UK£2.48
+83.16%
19.13%UK£2.95UK£1.70UK£2.025
Sep ’25UK£1.27
UK£2.71
+113.75%
14.94%UK£3.29UK£2.21UK£1.825
Aug ’25UK£1.28
UK£2.71
+111.90%
14.94%UK£3.29UK£2.21UK£1.635
Jul ’25UK£1.35
UK£2.74
+103.86%
14.85%UK£3.34UK£2.25UK£1.575
Jun ’25UK£1.75
UK£2.90
+65.35%
14.42%UK£3.34UK£2.24UK£1.534
May ’25UK£1.81
UK£3.03
+68.12%
12.05%UK£3.47UK£2.57UK£1.273
Apr ’25UK£1.89
UK£3.20
+69.55%
12.94%UK£3.67UK£2.59UK£1.454
UK£2.88
Fair Value
7.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/12 09:38
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/10 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Serica Energy plc is covered by 17 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Stephane Guy FoucaudAuctus Advisors LLP
James CarmichaelBerenberg
Henry TarrBerenberg