Phillips 66

NYSE:PSX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$65.1b

Phillips 66 Valuation

Is PSX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of PSX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: PSX ($169.5) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($204.29)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: PSX is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PSX?

Key metric: As PSX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PSX. This is calculated by dividing PSX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PSX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.5x
EarningsUS$4.39b
Market CapUS$65.12b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PSX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PSX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.9x
MPC Marathon Petroleum
16.5x6.68%US$63.4b
VLO Valero Energy
29.5x14.23%US$64.9b
DINO HF Sinclair
17.7x12.25%US$9.6b
SUN Sunoco
27.9x38.37%US$8.8b
PSX Phillips 66
15.5x6.67%US$65.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PSX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the peer average (22.9x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PSX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SAFX XCF Global
1.2xn/aUS$66.43m
TOPS Top Ships
1.6xn/aUS$16.65m
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
RUBI Rubico
0.6xn/aUS$3.68m
PSX 15.5xIndustry Avg. 14.6xNo. of Companies21PE0816243240+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PSX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PSX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PSX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.5x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PSX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PSX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$169.50
US$160.15
-5.52%
8.35%US$187.00US$133.00n/a20
Mar ’27US$154.33
US$157.55
+2.09%
7.73%US$177.00US$133.00n/a20
Feb ’27US$143.56
US$151.45
+5.50%
7.71%US$175.00US$133.00n/a20
Jan ’27US$129.04
US$148.85
+15.35%
8.16%US$171.00US$133.00n/a20
Dec ’26US$139.76
US$148.65
+6.36%
7.99%US$170.00US$133.00n/a20
Nov ’26US$136.14
US$146.10
+7.32%
7.60%US$170.00US$129.00n/a20
Oct ’26US$134.59
US$140.95
+4.72%
8.30%US$170.00US$127.00n/a19
Sep ’26US$133.58
US$136.00
+1.81%
5.90%US$158.00US$125.00n/a19
Aug ’26US$119.60
US$136.47
+14.11%
5.97%US$158.00US$125.00n/a19
Jul ’26US$123.15
US$130.97
+6.35%
8.25%US$156.00US$110.00n/a21
Jun ’26US$113.48
US$130.97
+15.41%
8.32%US$153.00US$110.00n/a20
May ’26US$103.46
US$129.27
+24.95%
8.10%US$149.00US$106.00n/a20
Apr ’26US$124.35
US$139.44
+12.14%
7.35%US$162.00US$124.43n/a19
Mar ’26US$129.69
US$137.18
+5.78%
8.11%US$162.00US$115.00US$154.3319
Feb ’26US$117.87
US$137.29
+16.48%
8.11%US$162.00US$115.00US$143.5619
Jan ’26US$113.93
US$140.75
+23.54%
8.36%US$161.00US$120.00US$129.0418
Dec ’25US$133.98
US$141.95
+5.95%
8.13%US$167.00US$122.00US$139.7618
Nov ’25US$120.01
US$143.23
+19.35%
7.89%US$167.00US$122.00US$136.1418
Oct ’25US$132.99
US$145.71
+9.57%
9.30%US$182.00US$122.00US$134.5917
Sep ’25US$140.31
US$153.08
+9.10%
8.24%US$176.00US$122.00US$133.5817
Aug ’25US$140.95
US$152.55
+8.23%
8.66%US$176.00US$122.00US$119.6017
Jul ’25US$140.93
US$157.20
+11.54%
9.46%US$191.00US$122.00US$123.1517
Jun ’25US$142.11
US$162.66
+14.46%
8.44%US$191.00US$122.00US$113.4818
May ’25US$140.21
US$165.29
+17.89%
8.95%US$191.00US$125.00US$103.4619
Apr ’25US$163.34
US$159.29
-2.48%
8.74%US$179.00US$125.00US$124.3519
Mar ’25US$144.20
US$150.40
+4.30%
7.39%US$169.00US$125.00US$129.6920
US$160.15
Fair Value
5.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/11 22:07
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/11 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Phillips 66 is covered by 31 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Theresa ChenBarclays
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research