Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

NYSE:YMM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$8.6b

Full Truck Alliance Valuation

Is YMM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of YMM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: YMM ($8.27) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($23.18)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: YMM is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YMM?

Key metric: As YMM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YMM. This is calculated by dividing YMM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is YMM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.4x
EarningsCN¥4.41b
Market CapCN¥58.56b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YMM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YMM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average72.4x
R Ryder System
17.2x9.43%US$8.7b
SAIA Saia
41.9x15.06%US$10.7b
UHAL U-Haul Holding
78.1xn/aUS$9.2b
KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
152.2x32.84%US$10.0b
YMM Full Truck Alliance
13.4x11.92%US$8.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YMM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (72.4x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YMM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LYFT Lyft
1.9x-57.73%US$5.26b
HXHX Haoxin Holdings
1.9xn/aUS$7.41m
No more companies available in this PE range
YMM 13.4xIndustry Avg. 40.2xNo. of Companies3PE020406080100+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YMM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (40.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YMM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YMM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio17.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: YMM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst YMM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$8.27
US$12.50
+51.18%
16.96%US$16.46US$8.05n/a13
Apr ’27US$8.25
US$12.43
+50.63%
16.95%US$16.36US$8.00n/a13
Mar ’27US$9.38
US$13.17
+40.41%
13.76%US$16.13US$8.01n/a13
Feb ’27US$9.90
US$13.17
+33.04%
13.76%US$16.13US$8.01n/a13
Jan ’27US$10.73
US$14.58
+35.90%
12.60%US$17.97US$11.06n/a14
Dec ’26US$11.32
US$14.59
+28.86%
12.61%US$17.97US$11.06n/a14
Nov ’26US$13.00
US$15.28
+17.53%
13.91%US$19.75US$10.99n/a14
Oct ’26US$12.93
US$15.47
+19.64%
13.91%US$19.78US$11.01n/a15
Sep ’26US$13.05
US$15.24
+16.80%
15.10%US$19.73US$10.04n/a15
Aug ’26US$10.66
US$15.61
+46.43%
14.56%US$18.56US$10.04n/a14
Jul ’26US$11.90
US$15.26
+28.25%
16.28%US$18.52US$10.02n/a15
Jun ’26US$11.63
US$15.26
+31.23%
16.28%US$18.52US$10.02n/a15
May ’26US$11.31
US$15.51
+37.13%
16.29%US$18.36US$10.03n/a15
Apr ’26US$12.79
US$16.46
+28.71%
9.97%US$18.43US$12.95US$8.2514
Mar ’26US$11.74
US$13.83
+17.82%
17.90%US$17.98US$6.98US$9.3813
Feb ’26US$11.26
US$12.53
+11.28%
18.93%US$15.76US$6.94US$9.9012
Jan ’26US$10.82
US$12.49
+15.47%
19.08%US$15.85US$6.98US$10.7312
Dec ’25US$10.01
US$12.26
+22.51%
18.48%US$15.88US$6.99US$11.3212
Nov ’25US$8.94
US$11.63
+30.04%
19.21%US$15.74US$7.12US$13.0012
Oct ’25US$9.30
US$11.64
+25.12%
19.21%US$15.76US$7.13US$12.9312
Sep ’25US$7.25
US$11.49
+58.49%
19.17%US$15.53US$7.02US$13.0512
Aug ’25US$7.24
US$11.75
+62.25%
15.25%US$15.23US$8.98US$10.6612
Jul ’25US$7.85
US$11.75
+49.69%
15.29%US$15.25US$8.99US$11.9012
Jun ’25US$8.84
US$11.77
+33.09%
15.29%US$15.27US$9.00US$11.6312
May ’25US$8.52
US$10.13
+18.84%
22.93%US$15.67US$5.95US$11.3111
Apr ’25US$7.49
US$10.14
+35.42%
22.95%US$15.70US$5.97US$12.7911
US$12.5
Fair Value
33.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/10 12:25
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/10 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. is covered by 19 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jiong ShaoBarclays
Cherry LeungBernstein
Wenjie ZhangChina International Capital Corporation Limited