Julius Bär Gruppe AG

SWX:BAER Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 12.6b

Julius Bär Gruppe Valuation

Is BAER undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of BAER when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: BAER (CHF61.52) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CHF104.43)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: BAER is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAER?

Key metric: As BAER is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BAER. This is calculated by dividing BAER's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BAER's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.5x
EarningsCHF 763.70m
Market CapCHF 12.61b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAER's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAER vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.7x
PGHN Partners Group Holding
17.6x11.19%CHF 22.2b
VZN VZ Holding
25.8x8.06%CHF 6.1b
EFGN EFG International
17.1x14.34%CHF 5.3b
VONN Vontobel Holding
14.1x9.83%CHF 4.0b
BAER Julius Bär Gruppe
16.5x13.86%CHF 12.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAER is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the peer average (18.7x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAER's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Capital Markets Industry?

19 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BAER 16.5xIndustry Avg. 15.2xNo. of Companies38PE01224364860+
19 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the European Capital Markets industry average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAER's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAER PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.5x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAER is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BAER forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 61.52
CHF 67.25
+9.31%
8.89%CHF 76.00CHF 56.00n/a17
Apr ’27CHF 60.18
CHF 67.16
+11.61%
9.00%CHF 76.00CHF 56.00n/a17
Mar ’27CHF 65.60
CHF 67.40
+2.74%
9.25%CHF 76.00CHF 56.00n/a17
Feb ’27CHF 64.62
CHF 66.22
+2.48%
8.81%CHF 75.00CHF 56.00n/a17
Jan ’27CHF 62.40
CHF 63.33
+1.49%
9.18%CHF 72.00CHF 52.40n/a16
Dec ’26CHF 57.38
CHF 63.02
+9.83%
9.32%CHF 72.00CHF 52.40n/a15
Nov ’26CHF 54.20
CHF 60.37
+11.39%
9.43%CHF 72.00CHF 52.40n/a14
Oct ’26CHF 55.04
CHF 60.37
+9.69%
9.43%CHF 72.00CHF 52.40n/a14
Sep ’26CHF 57.42
CHF 60.81
+5.91%
9.32%CHF 70.00CHF 52.40n/a15
Aug ’26CHF 55.22
CHF 60.48
+9.53%
9.19%CHF 70.00CHF 52.40n/a15
Jul ’26CHF 53.36
CHF 60.63
+13.63%
9.12%CHF 70.00CHF 51.50n/a15
Jun ’26CHF 54.12
CHF 62.21
+14.94%
8.23%CHF 70.00CHF 52.90n/a15
May ’26CHF 53.24
CHF 62.24
+16.91%
8.64%CHF 72.00CHF 52.90n/a16
Apr ’26CHF 60.50
CHF 64.19
+6.10%
9.40%CHF 77.00CHF 53.00CHF 60.1816
Mar ’26CHF 60.60
CHF 62.40
+2.97%
7.53%CHF 70.00CHF 53.00CHF 65.6015
Feb ’26CHF 64.30
CHF 63.77
-0.83%
9.40%CHF 72.00CHF 52.00CHF 64.6215
Jan ’26CHF 58.66
CHF 61.91
+5.55%
8.53%CHF 70.00CHF 51.30CHF 62.4015
Dec ’25CHF 58.30
CHF 59.94
+2.81%
8.34%CHF 66.00CHF 48.20CHF 57.3814
Nov ’25CHF 54.30
CHF 57.66
+6.18%
7.61%CHF 66.00CHF 48.20CHF 54.2014
Oct ’25CHF 50.86
CHF 57.66
+13.36%
7.61%CHF 66.00CHF 48.20CHF 55.0414
Sep ’25CHF 49.51
CHF 58.01
+17.18%
8.44%CHF 67.00CHF 48.20CHF 57.4214
Aug ’25CHF 48.05
CHF 58.49
+21.72%
7.87%CHF 67.00CHF 50.80CHF 55.2214
Jul ’25CHF 51.04
CHF 61.56
+20.62%
9.25%CHF 71.00CHF 50.90CHF 53.3614
Jun ’25CHF 54.08
CHF 61.56
+13.84%
9.25%CHF 71.00CHF 50.90CHF 54.1214
May ’25CHF 49.61
CHF 58.96
+18.86%
7.92%CHF 68.00CHF 50.70CHF 53.2414
Apr ’25CHF 52.08
CHF 58.26
+11.87%
6.89%CHF 65.00CHF 50.70CHF 60.5014
CHF 67.25
Fair Value
8.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/09 06:31
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/09 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Julius Bär Gruppe AG is covered by 31 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Tomasz GrzelakBaader Helvea Equity Research
Flora Benhakoun BocahutBarclays
Roberto de Aguiar AttuchBarclays