Bavarian Nordic A/S

CPSE:BAVA Stock Report

Market Cap: DKK 15.2b

Bavarian Nordic Valuation

Is BAVA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of BAVA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: BAVA (DKK197.4) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (DKK485.78)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: BAVA is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAVA?

Key metric: As BAVA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BAVA. This is calculated by dividing BAVA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BAVA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.1x
EarningsDKK 1.38b
Market CapDKK 15.23b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAVA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAVA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.2x
GMAB Genmab
17.9x17.76%DKK 109.9b
ZEAL Zealand Pharma
3.1x-80.08%DKK 20.3b
HLUN B H. Lundbeck
12.5x-0.58%DKK 38.8b
ALK B ALK-Abelló
39.4x15.34%DKK 47.1b
BAVA Bavarian Nordic
11.1x3.66%DKK 15.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the peer average (18.2x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAVA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Biotechs Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BAVA 11.1xIndustry Avg. 15.2xNo. of Companies8PE01632486480+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAVA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAVA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.1x
Fair PE Ratio11.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BAVA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentDKK 197.40
DKK 268.33
+35.93%
4.89%DKK 280.00DKK 250.00n/a3
Apr ’27DKK 195.70
DKK 268.33
+37.11%
4.89%DKK 280.00DKK 250.00n/a3
Mar ’27DKK 197.50
DKK 268.33
+35.86%
4.89%DKK 280.00DKK 250.00n/a3
Feb ’27DKK 192.00
DKK 260.00
+35.42%
3.85%DKK 270.00DKK 250.00n/a2
Jan ’27DKK 190.85
DKK 260.00
+36.23%
3.85%DKK 270.00DKK 250.00n/a2
Jul ’26DKK 168.10
DKK 267.50
+59.13%
15.89%DKK 310.00DKK 225.00n/a2
Jun ’26DKK 173.00
DKK 267.50
+54.62%
15.89%DKK 310.00DKK 225.00n/a2
May ’26DKK 156.85
DKK 270.50
+72.46%
14.60%DKK 310.00DKK 231.00n/a2
Apr ’26DKK 153.20
DKK 270.50
+76.57%
14.60%DKK 310.00DKK 231.00DKK 195.702
Mar ’26DKK 168.15
DKK 279.00
+65.92%
11.11%DKK 310.00DKK 248.00DKK 197.502
Feb ’26DKK 197.55
DKK 305.00
+54.39%
15.44%DKK 360.00DKK 245.00DKK 192.003
Jan ’26DKK 189.35
DKK 302.67
+59.85%
16.54%DKK 360.00DKK 238.00DKK 190.853
Dec ’25DKK 193.40
DKK 319.50
+65.20%
16.36%DKK 370.00DKK 238.00DKK 187.404
Nov ’25DKK 216.00
DKK 315.00
+45.83%
17.21%DKK 375.00DKK 230.00DKK 239.004
Oct ’25DKK 222.80
DKK 310.80
+39.50%
15.83%DKK 375.00DKK 230.00DKK 228.605
Sep ’25DKK 266.00
DKK 286.00
+7.52%
25.73%DKK 380.00DKK 176.00DKK 236.805
Aug ’25DKK 187.90
DKK 263.20
+40.07%
20.27%DKK 331.00DKK 176.00DKK 235.605
Jul ’25DKK 171.65
DKK 263.20
+53.34%
20.27%DKK 331.00DKK 176.00DKK 168.105
Jun ’25DKK 184.85
DKK 262.00
+41.74%
21.11%DKK 331.00DKK 170.00DKK 173.005
May ’25DKK 152.40
DKK 264.80
+73.75%
22.27%DKK 345.00DKK 170.00DKK 156.855
Apr ’25DKK 154.95
DKK 276.80
+78.64%
20.88%DKK 345.00DKK 170.00DKK 153.205
DKK 268.33
Fair Value
26.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/13 04:18
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/10 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Bavarian Nordic A/S is covered by 12 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jacob LademannCarnegie Investment Bank AB
Peter VerdultCitigroup Inc
Hakon Hemme JørgensenDanske Bank