Howden Joinery Group Plc

LSE:HWDN Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£4.5b

Howden Joinery Group Valuation

Is HWDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of HWDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: HWDN (£8.38) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (£10.43)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: HWDN is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HWDN?

Key metric: As HWDN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HWDN. This is calculated by dividing HWDN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HWDN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.9x
EarningsUK£267.70m
Market CapUK£4.51b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HWDN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HWDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21x
RS1 RS Group
18.7x15.34%UK£3.0b
BNZL Bunzl
16.2x4.65%UK£7.4b
DPLM Diploma
36.6x10.99%UK£6.8b
GFTU Grafton Group
12.6x3.24%UK£1.7b
HWDN Howden Joinery Group
16.9x5.93%UK£4.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HWDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (21x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HWDN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HWDN 16.9xIndustry Avg. 16.5xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HWDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (16.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HWDN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HWDN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.9x
Fair PE Ratio22.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HWDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HWDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£8.38
UK£10.08
+20.37%
9.78%UK£12.10UK£9.00n/a16
Mar ’27UK£9.70
UK£9.99
+3.02%
9.72%UK£12.10UK£9.00n/a16
Feb ’27UK£8.37
UK£9.68
+15.62%
9.24%UK£12.10UK£8.80n/a16
Jan ’27UK£8.33
UK£9.58
+15.07%
8.80%UK£12.10UK£8.80n/a15
Dec ’26UK£8.40
UK£9.56
+13.88%
9.16%UK£12.10UK£8.56n/a15
Nov ’26UK£8.64
UK£9.59
+11.10%
9.19%UK£12.10UK£8.56n/a15
Oct ’26UK£8.30
UK£9.58
+15.44%
8.93%UK£12.10UK£8.56n/a16
Sep ’26UK£8.41
UK£9.56
+13.78%
9.08%UK£12.10UK£8.56n/a15
Aug ’26UK£8.62
UK£9.56
+10.95%
9.40%UK£12.10UK£8.56n/a14
Jul ’26UK£8.66
UK£9.35
+7.97%
11.02%UK£12.10UK£8.24n/a14
Jun ’26UK£8.61
UK£9.32
+8.35%
11.31%UK£12.10UK£8.20n/a14
May ’26UK£7.97
UK£9.32
+16.97%
11.40%UK£12.10UK£8.20n/a14
Apr ’26UK£7.18
UK£9.32
+29.85%
11.40%UK£12.10UK£8.20n/a14
Mar ’26UK£7.73
UK£9.33
+20.75%
11.20%UK£12.10UK£8.20UK£9.7014
Feb ’26UK£8.21
UK£9.67
+17.84%
9.89%UK£12.10UK£8.49UK£8.3713
Jan ’26UK£7.94
UK£9.69
+22.14%
9.77%UK£12.10UK£8.49UK£8.3313
Dec ’25UK£8.16
UK£9.53
+16.85%
12.48%UK£12.10UK£6.80UK£8.4013
Nov ’25UK£8.53
UK£9.78
+14.69%
11.91%UK£12.10UK£6.80UK£8.6414
Oct ’25UK£9.05
UK£9.78
+8.09%
11.91%UK£12.10UK£6.80UK£8.3014
Sep ’25UK£9.52
UK£9.72
+2.12%
12.06%UK£12.10UK£6.80UK£8.4114
Aug ’25UK£9.30
UK£9.69
+4.17%
11.81%UK£12.10UK£6.80UK£8.6214
Jul ’25UK£8.72
UK£9.37
+7.46%
11.93%UK£12.10UK£6.80UK£8.6614
Jun ’25UK£9.08
UK£9.07
-0.011%
13.59%UK£11.70UK£6.80UK£8.6115
May ’25UK£8.57
UK£8.96
+4.56%
11.74%UK£10.19UK£6.80UK£7.9715
Apr ’25UK£9.07
UK£8.88
-2.05%
11.35%UK£10.19UK£6.80UK£7.1815
Mar ’25UK£8.46
UK£8.64
+2.04%
11.69%UK£10.00UK£6.70UK£7.7314
UK£10.08
Fair Value
16.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/15 08:53
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/13 00:00
Earnings2025/12/27
Annual Earnings2025/12/27

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Howden Joinery Group Plc is covered by 25 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Rajesh PatkiBarclays
Emily BiddulphBarclays
Harry GoadBerenberg