China Jinmao Holdings Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 817 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

817 (HK$1.23) is trading below our estimate of [[future cash flow value]] (HK$29.63)

Is 817 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Future Cash Flow Value
Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of 817 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

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Below Future Cash Flow Value: 817 (HK$1.23) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (HK$29.63)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 817 is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 817?

Key metric: As 817 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 817. This is calculated by dividing 817's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 817's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	24.3x
Earnings	CN¥591.64m
Market Cap	CN¥14.39b

817 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	33x
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 817's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 817 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	112.1x
1396 Greater Bay Area AI Computing Tech	195.3x	n/a	HK$16.5b
3900 Greentown China Holdings	209.5x	63.29%	HK$17.2b
1030 Seazen Group	21.3x	42.17%	HK$9.7b
81 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group	22.6x	19.95%	HK$7.9b
817 China Jinmao Holdings Group	24.3x	26.83%	HK$16.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 817 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the peer average (112.1x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 817's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

12 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
2007 Country Garden Holdings	2x	-38.52%	US$983.32m
618 Peking University Resources (Holdings)	1.3x	n/a	US$148.36m
884 CIFI Holdings (Group)	0.04x	-130.78%	US$101.68m
813 Shimao Group Holdings	0.04x	-52.05%	US$91.27m

12 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 817 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 817's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

817 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	24.3x
Fair PE Ratio	14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 817 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 817 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$1.23	HK$1.87 +52.00%	22.41%	HK$2.50	HK$1.00	n/a	11
Jun ’27	HK$1.75	HK$1.87 +6.87%	22.44%	HK$2.50	HK$1.00	n/a	11
May ’27	HK$1.66	HK$1.65 -0.34%	21.29%	HK$2.50	HK$1.00	n/a	11
Apr ’27	HK$1.32	HK$1.65 +24.85%	21.37%	HK$2.50	HK$1.00	n/a	11
Mar ’27	HK$1.59	HK$1.63 +2.57%	24.29%	HK$2.50	HK$0.90	n/a	11
Feb ’27	HK$1.73	HK$1.57 -9.22%	19.09%	HK$1.90	HK$0.90	n/a	11
Jan ’27	HK$1.21	HK$1.59 +31.37%	18.30%	HK$1.90	HK$0.90	n/a	11
Dec ’26	HK$1.37	HK$1.61 +17.24%	18.87%	HK$1.90	HK$0.90	n/a	11
Nov ’26	HK$1.34	HK$1.61 +19.78%	18.89%	HK$1.90	HK$0.90	n/a	11
Oct ’26	HK$1.55	HK$1.57 +1.14%	20.32%	HK$1.90	HK$0.90	n/a	10
Sep ’26	HK$1.52	HK$1.51 -0.39%	23.28%	HK$1.90	HK$0.90	n/a	10
Aug ’26	HK$1.55	HK$1.39 -10.52%	19.52%	HK$1.66	HK$0.80	n/a	10
Jul ’26	HK$1.19	HK$1.39 +16.55%	19.52%	HK$1.66	HK$0.80	HK$1.23	10
Jun ’26	HK$1.07	HK$1.38 +29.29%	19.90%	HK$1.66	HK$0.80	HK$1.75	10
May ’26	HK$1.15	HK$1.34 +16.47%	22.40%	HK$1.66	HK$0.80	HK$1.66	11
Apr ’26	HK$1.25	HK$1.30 +3.97%	22.21%	HK$1.62	HK$0.80	HK$1.32	10
Mar ’26	HK$1.11	HK$0.94 -15.01%	27.41%	HK$1.30	HK$0.46	HK$1.59	10
Feb ’26	HK$0.91	HK$0.93 +2.20%	29.62%	HK$1.30	HK$0.46	HK$1.73	10
Jan ’26	HK$0.98	HK$0.90 -7.92%	31.01%	HK$1.30	HK$0.46	HK$1.21	10
Dec ’25	HK$1.08	HK$0.85 -20.92%	29.10%	HK$1.30	HK$0.46	HK$1.37	10
Nov ’25	HK$1.20	HK$0.86 -28.73%	29.00%	HK$1.30	HK$0.46	HK$1.34	10
Oct ’25	HK$1.17	HK$0.80 -31.94%	21.19%	HK$1.10	HK$0.46	HK$1.55	10
Sep ’25	HK$0.71	HK$0.92 +29.92%	69.91%	HK$3.00	HK$0.40	HK$1.52	12
Aug ’25	HK$0.61	HK$0.90 +48.02%	72.88%	HK$3.00	HK$0.40	HK$1.55	12
Jul ’25	HK$0.62	HK$0.90 +45.59%	72.90%	HK$3.00	HK$0.40	HK$1.19	12

AnalystPriceTarget

Community Contributor

HK$1.87

Fair Value

34.2% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2026/07/01 19:34
End of Day Share Price	2026/06/30 00:00
Earnings	2025/12/31
Annual Earnings	2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited is covered by 35 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Eric Du	BofA Global Research
Jizhong Hu	CGS International
Yuanqi Sun	China International Capital Corporation Limited