Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

NYSE:NOG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.0b

Northern Oil and Gas Valuation

Is NOG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of NOG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: NOG ($27.6) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($75.59)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: NOG is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOG?

Key metric: As NOG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NOG. This is calculated by dividing NOG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NOG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio74.1x
EarningsUS$38.76m
Market CapUS$3.04b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NOG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NOG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.7x
MNR Mach Natural Resources
16.1x12.72%US$2.4b
CRGY Crescent Energy
31.4x26.52%US$4.4b
KRP Kimbell Royalty Partners
23.9x1.06%US$1.6b
BSM Black Stone Minerals
11.5x-2.26%US$3.2b
NOG Northern Oil and Gas
74.1x26.50%US$3.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.1x) compared to the peer average (20.7x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NOG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SAFX XCF Global
1.3x-50.55%US$100.68m
TOPS Top Ships
1.3xn/aUS$14.34m
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
RUBI Rubico
1.4xn/aUS$3.62m
NOG 74.1xIndustry Avg. 15.7xNo. of Companies16PE0816243240+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.1x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NOG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NOG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio74.1x
Fair PE Ratio20.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NOG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NOG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$27.60
US$34.60
+25.36%
14.75%US$45.00US$28.00n/a10
Mar ’27US$27.59
US$29.90
+8.37%
14.46%US$40.00US$24.00n/a10
Feb ’27US$25.00
US$29.90
+19.60%
14.46%US$40.00US$24.00n/a10
Jan ’27US$21.47
US$30.70
+42.99%
14.05%US$40.00US$25.00n/a10
Dec ’26US$23.08
US$33.40
+44.71%
27.58%US$52.00US$25.00n/a10
Nov ’26US$22.13
US$32.10
+45.05%
21.65%US$50.00US$25.00n/a10
Oct ’26US$24.66
US$33.30
+35.04%
19.92%US$50.00US$25.00n/a10
Sep ’26US$26.16
US$33.70
+28.82%
19.05%US$50.00US$25.00n/a10
Aug ’26US$25.03
US$36.50
+45.83%
17.44%US$50.00US$29.00n/a11
Jul ’26US$29.14
US$36.41
+24.95%
18.09%US$50.00US$27.00n/a11
Jun ’26US$26.58
US$36.41
+36.98%
18.09%US$50.00US$27.00n/a11
May ’26US$25.08
US$36.14
+44.08%
18.28%US$50.00US$27.00n/a11
Apr ’26US$29.87
US$42.29
+41.59%
22.34%US$55.00US$17.00US$27.6012
Mar ’26US$31.50
US$47.71
+51.46%
16.42%US$64.00US$34.00US$27.5912
Feb ’26US$35.95
US$50.29
+39.89%
15.37%US$64.00US$35.00US$25.0012
Jan ’26US$37.16
US$48.79
+31.30%
11.64%US$58.00US$37.00US$21.4712
Dec ’25US$43.49
US$49.04
+12.77%
10.23%US$58.00US$41.00US$23.0812
Nov ’25US$35.82
US$45.21
+26.21%
7.76%US$51.00US$39.00US$22.1312
Oct ’25US$36.40
US$47.21
+29.69%
11.40%US$58.00US$39.00US$24.6612
Sep ’25US$39.78
US$49.32
+23.98%
10.66%US$58.00US$40.00US$26.1611
Aug ’25US$41.42
US$49.77
+20.17%
9.26%US$58.00US$42.00US$25.0311
Jul ’25US$37.68
US$49.68
+31.85%
10.12%US$58.00US$41.00US$29.1411
Jun ’25US$40.93
US$49.32
+20.49%
9.35%US$56.00US$41.00US$26.5811
May ’25US$39.67
US$50.13
+26.35%
10.04%US$56.00US$41.00US$25.0812
Apr ’25US$39.65
US$46.42
+17.08%
11.74%US$56.00US$38.00US$29.8713
US$34.6
Fair Value
20.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/01 10:56
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/01 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is covered by 26 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Daniel McSpiritBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Noah HungnessBofA Global Research