Announcement • Apr 30
Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:SIGMAF A) acquired Roger Wood Foods, Inc. from Wood Family. Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:SIGMAF A) acquired Roger Wood Foods, Inc. from Wood Family on April 28, 2026.
For the period ending 2025, Roger Wood Foods, Inc. reported total revenue of $50 million.
Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:SIGMAF A) completed the acquisition of Roger Wood Foods, Inc. from Wood Family on April 28, 2026. New Risk • Apr 26
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has an unstable dividend paying track record. The dividend has had an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Dividend yield: 2.8% This is considered a minor risk. If the company has cut or reduced its dividend in the past, it may be a sign that the underlying business is too cyclical to consistently maintain or grow the dividend over the long-term. It may also indicate the company prioritizes other outcomes instead of maintaining the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (299% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • Apr 26
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: Mex$0.22 (vs Mex$0.33 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: Mex$0.22 (down from Mex$0.33 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: Mex$41.7b (down 2.5% from 1Q 2025). Net income: Mex$1.22b (down 33% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 2.9% (down from 4.3% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Food industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 54% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Apr 09
Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 23, 2026 Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results After-Market on Apr 23, 2026 Declared Dividend • Apr 08
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.013 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.013. Ex-date: 5th October 2026 Payment date: 6th October 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.4%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (53% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (51% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 1.1% over the next 2 years. However, it would need to fall by 41% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Declared Dividend • Mar 19
Dividend of US$0.013 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.013. Ex-date: 6th April 2026 Payment date: 7th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 0.8%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.0%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (53% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (51% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 10 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. EPS is expected to decline by 1.1% over the next 2 years. However, it would need to fall by 41% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. New Risk • Mar 17
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.9x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.9x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.6% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Announcement • Feb 18
Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 10, 2026 Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 10, 2026. Location: 1111 gomez morin, ave carrizalejo neighborhood, nuevo leon, san pedro garza garcia Mexico New Risk • Feb 17
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk High level of debt (294% net debt to equity). New Risk • Feb 15
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 0.5x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Feb 13
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: Mex$1.42 (up from Mex$0.24 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: Mex$177.9b (up 9.0% from FY 2024). Net income: Mex$7.79b (up Mex$9.00b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.4% (up from net loss in FY 2024). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Food industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 43% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Feb 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 5.3% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.7x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 5.3% per year over the past 5 years. Announcement • Jan 27
Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 11, 2026 Sigma Foods, S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results After-Market on Feb 11, 2026 New Risk • Oct 26
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.7x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Oct 24
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: Mex$0.25 (up from Mex$0.17 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$45.2b (up 6.1% from 3Q 2024). Net income: Mex$1.40b (up Mex$2.22b from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from net loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 33%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Food industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 3% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Oct 08
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 22, 2025 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results After-Market on Oct 22, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 07
Now 22% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 3.4% to Mex$13.99. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$11.48, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 29% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 7.3% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 227% in the next 2 years. Announcement • Jul 09
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 23, 2025 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results After-Market on Jul 23, 2025 New Risk • Jul 03
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 41% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.7% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 41% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (15% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • May 29
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 7.8% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.4x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.8% average weekly change). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (15% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Apr 25
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: Mex$0.33 (vs Mex$0.21 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: Mex$0.33 (up from Mex$0.21 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: Mex$42.7b (down 39% from 1Q 2024). Net income: Mex$1.83b (up 80% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.3% (up from 1.5% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Food industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 91 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Apr 16
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. Announces Steps Down of José Antonio Meade Kuribreña from the Board, Effective 25 March 2025 HSBC Holdings plc ('HSBC') confirmed that Dr. José Antonio Meade Kuribreña, an independent non-executive Director of HSBC: stepped down from the board of Alfa, S.A.B. de C.V. ('Alfa') on 25 March 2025. Announcement • Apr 10
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Apr 23, 2025 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results After-Market on Apr 23, 2025 Announcement • Apr 08
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. completed the Spin-Off of Controladora Alpek, S.A.B. (BMV:CTALPEK). Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. agreed to Spin-Off Certain Asset of ALFA/Alpek S.A.B. on October 09, 2024. The ALFA shareholders will receive one share of Controladora Alpek for each of their ALFA shares, in addition to retaining their share ownership in ALFA's equity. Transaction has been approved by Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. board of director's. and is subject to approval at the Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting that will take place on October 24, 2024. As of October 24, 2024, Alfa S.A.B shareholders approved the transaction. As of November 1, 2024, Alfa, majority shareholder Alpek, has received shareholder's approval to spin off its entire ownership interest in Alpek. Transaction is expected to complete on 2025. As of March 27, 2025, ALFA has received authorization from the National Banking and Securities Commission (“CNBV”) to list such shares in the National Securities Registry. Controladora Alpek will start trading on the Mexican Stock Exchange on April 7, 2025. As per the announcement dated March 28, 2025, Alfa shareholders will receive one share of Controladora Alpek for each Alfa share they own on April 4, 2025. As on April 1, 2025, Alpek, the remaining petrochemical business of the Monterrey-based company Alfa, incorporated five new members to its board of directors, as part of a restructuring of its governing body a week after its spin-off from its parent company. The company's shareholders approved the incorporation of David Martínez Guzmán, founder and CEO of Fintech Advisory; former presidential candidate José Antonio Meade Kuribeña; Enrique Castillo Sánchez-Mejorada, CEO of Tejocotes 134; Armando Garza Herrera, son of Armando Garza Sada, chairman of the board of directors of Nemak; and Guillermo Francisco Vogel Hinojosa, chairman of Grupo Collado. The modification to Alpek's governing body takes place before Controladora Alpek, the entity created to complete its spin-off from Alfa, begins trading on the stock market on Monday, April 7. Controladora Alpek, which will be listed under the ticker CTALPEK, is now the owner of the 82.09% of Alpek that was held by Alfa prior to the process.
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. completed the Spin-Off Certain Asset of ALFA/Alpek S.A.B. on April 8, 2025. Reported Earnings • Mar 27
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: Mex$0.24 loss per share (improved from Mex$0.92 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: Mex$163.2b (up 6.6% from FY 2023). Net loss: Mex$1.21b (loss narrowed 73% from FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 48%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 38% decline forecast for the Industrials industry in South America. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 101 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Mar 10
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V., Annual General Meeting, Mar 25, 2025. New Risk • Feb 28
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.6x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.6x net interest cover). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (15% increase in shares outstanding). Price Target Changed • Feb 19
Price target increased by 8.2% to Mex$22.06 Up from Mex$20.38, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 29% above last closing price of Mex$17.14. Stock is up 33% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$1.17 next year compared to a net loss per share of Mex$2.57 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 10
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.8% to Mex$16.99. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$21.27, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 4.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 89%. Announcement • Jan 31
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 18, 2025 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results at 3:00 PM, Central Standard Time on Feb 18, 2025 Reported Earnings • Oct 29
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: Mex$0.17 loss per share (vs Mex$0.17 loss in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: Mex$0.17 loss per share (further deteriorated from Mex$0.17 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$42.6b (down 41% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: Mex$827.0m (loss widened 3.0% from 3Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Global Industrials industry. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 87 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 23
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 35% to Mex$14.55. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$18.23, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Announcement • Oct 15
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 28, 2024 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results After-Market on Oct 28, 2024 New Risk • Oct 13
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 15% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.7x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (15% increase in shares outstanding). Price Target Changed • Oct 01
Price target increased by 7.3% to Mex$18.81 Up from Mex$17.53, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 17% above last closing price of Mex$16.11. Stock is up 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$5.30 next year compared to a net loss per share of Mex$2.57 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 30
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 50% to Mex$16.14. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$13.38, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. New Risk • Sep 11
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Mexican stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.7x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 36% per year over the past 5 years. New Risk • Jul 28
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.7x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.7x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 36% per year over the past 5 years. Reported Earnings • Jul 26
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: Mex$0.18 (vs Mex$0.026 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$0.18 (up from Mex$0.026 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$72.2b (down 3.5% from 2Q 2023). Net income: Mex$843.6m (up Mex$717.5m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.2% (up from 0.2% in 2Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Global Industrials industry. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 59 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Jul 10
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Jul 24, 2024 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results at 3:00 PM, Central Standard Time on Jul 24, 2024 Reported Earnings • Apr 24
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: Mex$0.21 (vs Mex$0.097 loss in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: Mex$0.21 (up from Mex$0.097 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: Mex$69.8b (down 8.6% from 1Q 2023). Net income: Mex$1.02b (up Mex$1.49b from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.5% (up from net loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Global Industrials industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 40% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 5% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Apr 09
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 25% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.6x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 25% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Announcement • Apr 09
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 23, 2024 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results After-Market on Apr 23, 2024 Board Change • Apr 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 3 experienced directors. 8 highly experienced directors. Proprietary Board Member Juan Carlos Rojas was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2023. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Declared Dividend • Mar 10
Final dividend of US$0.01 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.01. Ex-date: 14th March 2024 Payment date: 19th March 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.7%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is well covered by cash flows (10% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 2.6% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Reported Earnings • Feb 22
Full year 2023 earnings released: Mex$2.58 loss per share (vs Mex$2.43 profit in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: Mex$2.58 loss per share (down from Mex$2.43 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: Mex$291.2b (down 20% from FY 2022). Net loss: Mex$12.4b (down 205% from profit in FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Global Industrials industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has remained flat whereas the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year. Announcement • Jan 31
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 20, 2024 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results on Feb 20, 2024 Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target decreased by 7.3% to Mex$15.94 Down from Mex$17.19, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 36% above last closing price of Mex$11.71. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$1.37 for next year compared to Mex$2.43 last year. Price Target Changed • Oct 25
Price target decreased by 8.0% to Mex$16.29 Down from Mex$17.71, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 52% above last closing price of Mex$10.75. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of Mex$1.37 for next year compared to Mex$2.43 last year. New Risk • Oct 25
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.9x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.9x net interest cover). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Reported Earnings • Oct 25
Third quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2023 results: Mex$0.17 loss per share (down from Mex$1.03 profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue: Mex$71.6b (down 27% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: Mex$803.0m (down 116% from profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Global Industrials industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Oct 11
Arcos Gestao e Investimento acquired Casa & Construcao from Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALFA A). Arcos Gestao e Investimento acquired Casa & Construcao from Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALFA A) on October 9, 2023.Arcos Gestao e Investimento completed the acquisition of Casa & Construcao from Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALFA A) on October 9, 2023. Announcement • Oct 10
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 23, 2023 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results After-Market on Oct 23, 2023 New Risk • Aug 02
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 1.6% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings have declined by 1.6% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risks High level of debt (172% net debt to equity). Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.7% net profit margin). New Risk • Jul 28
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.8x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.8x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 5.4% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Announcement • Jul 07
Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Jul 26, 2023 Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results After-Market on Jul 26, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • May 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 37% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from Mex$1.80 to Mex$1.14 per share. Revenue forecast steady at Mex$349.1b. Net income forecast to grow 22% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Industrials industry in Mexico. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at Mex$18.25. Share price was steady at Mex$11.48 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
First quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2023 results: Mex$0.097 loss per share (down from Mex$0.88 profit in 1Q 2022). Revenue: Mex$76.4b (down 11% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: Mex$467.0m (down 111% from profit in 1Q 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Global Industrials industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Feb 21
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: Mex$2.46 (vs Mex$0.84 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: Mex$2.46 (up from Mex$0.84 in FY 2021). Revenue: Mex$363.9b (up 18% from FY 2021). Net income: Mex$11.8b (up 188% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 3.3% (up from 1.3% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Global Industrials industry are expected to grow by 2.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 31% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 09
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 32% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate increased from Mex$1.89 to Mex$2.49. Revenue forecast steady at Mex$363.3b. Net income forecast to grow 3.6% next year vs 10% growth forecast for Industrials industry in Mexico. Consensus price target of Mex$19.75 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 5.1% to Mex$12.95 over the past week. Announcement • Feb 01
Alfa, S. A. B. de C. V. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Feb 15, 2023 Alfa, S. A. B. de C. V. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results After-Market on Feb 15, 2023 Buying Opportunity • Nov 28
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 2.7%. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$17.21, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.7% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 1.0% in the next 2 years. Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 2 experienced directors. 9 highly experienced directors. Director Adrian G Cueva was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Buying Opportunity • Nov 09
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 1.2%. The fair value is estimated to be Mex$17.22, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 11% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Revenue is forecast to decline by 2.7% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 1.0% in the next 2 years. 
