Arch Capital Group Ltd.

NasdaqGS:ACGL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$33.1b

Arch Capital Group Valuation

Is ACGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of ACGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: ACGL ($92.28) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($222.62)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: ACGL is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ACGL?

Key metric: As ACGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ACGL. This is calculated by dividing ACGL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ACGL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.2x
EarningsUS$4.06b
Market CapUS$33.15b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ACGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ACGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.5x
CINF Cincinnati Financial
11.9x-20.54%US$25.1b
HIG Hartford Insurance Group
10.2x2.40%US$35.9b
MKL Markel Group
14.3x0.54%US$26.1b
WRB W. R. Berkley
13.5x1.41%US$25.7b
ACGL Arch Capital Group
8.2x-2.22%US$33.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ACGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (12.5x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ACGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KG Kestrel Group
1.1xn/aUS$68.44m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
ACGL 8.2xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies19PE0816243240+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ACGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ACGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ACGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.2x
Fair PE Ratio12.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ACGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ACGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$92.28
US$107.95
+16.98%
8.70%US$125.00US$93.00n/a19
Jan ’27US$95.92
US$107.26
+11.83%
10.80%US$135.00US$84.00n/a19
Dec ’26US$93.16
US$108.39
+16.35%
11.43%US$135.00US$84.00n/a18
Nov ’26US$86.31
US$108.00
+25.13%
10.83%US$125.00US$84.00n/a17
Oct ’26US$90.31
US$108.31
+19.93%
9.56%US$125.00US$93.00n/a16
Sep ’26US$91.53
US$108.31
+18.34%
9.56%US$125.00US$93.00n/a16
Aug ’26US$88.00
US$109.57
+24.51%
10.62%US$125.00US$93.00n/a14
Jul ’26US$91.50
US$111.79
+22.17%
9.56%US$125.00US$93.00n/a14
Jun ’26US$95.04
US$112.21
+18.07%
9.19%US$125.00US$93.00n/a14
May ’26US$89.67
US$111.36
+24.19%
9.39%US$125.00US$93.00n/a14
Apr ’26US$96.14
US$113.33
+17.88%
8.80%US$128.00US$97.00n/a15
Mar ’26US$92.91
US$114.60
+23.35%
10.47%US$141.00US$97.00n/a15
Feb ’26US$93.07
US$117.53
+26.28%
9.90%US$141.00US$100.00n/a15
Jan ’26US$92.35
US$120.60
+30.59%
9.00%US$141.00US$104.00US$95.9215
Dec ’25US$100.72
US$121.07
+20.20%
8.59%US$141.00US$104.00US$93.1615
Nov ’25US$96.02
US$121.73
+26.78%
9.44%US$143.00US$98.00US$86.3115
Oct ’25US$113.51
US$115.63
+1.86%
7.58%US$138.00US$98.00US$90.3116
Sep ’25US$113.09
US$113.27
+0.16%
6.19%US$125.00US$98.00US$91.5315
Aug ’25US$97.10
US$111.87
+15.21%
6.28%US$120.00US$94.00US$88.0015
Jul ’25US$100.65
US$109.60
+8.89%
7.24%US$120.00US$94.00US$91.5015
Jun ’25US$102.63
US$108.20
+5.43%
6.34%US$120.00US$94.00US$95.0415
May ’25US$95.80
US$107.07
+11.76%
6.08%US$116.00US$94.00US$89.6715
Apr ’25US$92.31
US$99.87
+8.19%
7.66%US$116.00US$85.00US$96.1415
Mar ’25US$87.17
US$99.33
+13.95%
6.77%US$110.00US$85.00US$92.9115
Feb ’25US$82.09
US$93.19
+13.52%
7.65%US$103.00US$79.00US$93.0716
Jan ’25US$74.27
US$95.20
+28.18%
7.39%US$103.00US$79.00US$92.3515
US$107.95
Fair Value
14.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/21 12:57
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/21 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is covered by 32 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jay GelbBarclays
Taylor ScottBarclays
Michael ZaremskiBMO Capital Markets Equity Research