Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:SPCE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$226.7m

Virgin Galactic Holdings Valuation

Is SPCE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of SPCE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Fair Value: SPCE ($3.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($60.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPCE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPCE?

Key metric: As SPCE barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for SPCE. This is calculated by dividing SPCE's market cap by their current book value.
What is SPCE's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1x
BookUS$225.90m
Market CapUS$226.70m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does SPCE's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for SPCE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6x
BUKS Butler National
2.9xn/aUS$202.5m
SPAI Safe Pro Group
15.9x53.95%US$134.2m
OPXS Optex Systems Holdings
4.2xn/aUS$102.3m
ASLE AerSale
0.9x63.66%US$356.2m
SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings
1x56.45%US$226.7m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: SPCE is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (6x).

Historical Price to Book Ratio

Historical Price to Book Ratio compares a stock's price to the book value of it's equity over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does SPCE's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AIRO AIRO Group Holdings
0.6x50.35%US$418.53m
VORB.Q Virgin Orbit Holdings
0.02xn/aUS$1.18m
No more companies available in this PB range
SPCE 1.0xIndustry Avg. 4.3xNo. of Companies8PB02.44.87.29.612+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: SPCE is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (4.3x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPCE's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPCE PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SPCE's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPCE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$3.10
US$4.08
+31.61%
48.39%US$8.00US$2.00n/a6
Jan ’27US$3.21
US$4.12
+28.40%
47.56%US$8.00US$2.00n/a6
Dec ’26US$3.79
US$4.16
+9.63%
46.46%US$8.00US$2.00n/a6
Nov ’26US$3.94
US$4.14
+5.03%
46.70%US$8.00US$2.00n/a6
Oct ’26US$3.84
US$3.92
+2.00%
50.62%US$8.00US$2.00n/a6
Sep ’26US$3.11
US$4.08
+31.30%
45.36%US$8.00US$2.50n/a6
Aug ’26US$3.68
US$4.46
+21.15%
39.44%US$8.00US$3.00n/a6
Jul ’26US$2.82
US$4.46
+58.10%
39.44%US$8.00US$3.00n/a6
Jun ’26US$3.21
US$8.11
+152.56%
122.79%US$32.00US$1.00n/a7
May ’26US$2.87
US$8.82
+207.37%
128.40%US$36.00US$1.00n/a7
Apr ’26US$2.82
US$8.82
+212.82%
128.40%US$36.00US$1.00n/a7
Mar ’26US$3.80
US$9.71
+155.64%
114.59%US$36.00US$1.00n/a7
Feb ’26US$4.76
US$13.57
+185.11%
90.49%US$41.00US$3.00n/a7
Jan ’26US$5.88
US$13.57
+130.81%
90.49%US$41.00US$3.00US$3.217
Dec ’25US$7.30
US$13.57
+85.91%
90.49%US$41.00US$3.00US$3.797
Nov ’25US$6.61
US$12.67
+91.63%
123.04%US$47.00US$1.00US$3.946
Oct ’25US$5.84
US$13.67
+134.02%
130.19%US$53.00US$1.00US$3.846
Sep ’25US$6.69
US$18.67
+179.02%
100.92%US$53.00US$1.00US$3.116
Aug ’25US$6.40
US$39.83
+522.40%
62.47%US$80.00US$8.00US$3.686
Jul ’25US$7.93
US$43.67
+450.65%
54.46%US$80.00US$15.00US$2.826
Jun ’25US$17.29
US$46.00
+165.99%
49.45%US$80.00US$15.00US$3.217
May ’25US$18.55
US$53.13
+186.45%
45.85%US$100.00US$20.00US$2.878
Apr ’25US$28.60
US$55.00
+92.31%
40.40%US$100.00US$35.00US$2.828
Mar ’25US$33.80
US$55.00
+62.72%
40.40%US$100.00US$35.00US$3.808
Feb ’25US$35.80
US$58.75
+64.11%
39.17%US$100.00US$35.00US$4.768
Jan ’25US$49.00
US$53.75
+9.69%
48.95%US$100.00US$20.00US$5.888
US$4.08
Fair Value
24.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/20 14:13
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/16 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Douglas HarnedBernstein
Ronald EpsteinBofA Global Research
Kenneth HerbertCanaccord Genuity