Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund

NYSE:MSDL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.3b

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund Valuation

Is MSDL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of MSDL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: MSDL ($15.37) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($20.03)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: MSDL is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MSDL?

Key metric: As MSDL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MSDL. This is calculated by dividing MSDL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MSDL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.8x
EarningsUS$87.91m
Market CapUS$1.30b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MSDL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

Insufficient data to calculate this valuation analysis check
The above table shows the PE ratio for MSDL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Averagen/a
MSDL Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
14.8x22.26%US$1.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: Insufficient data to calculate MSDL's Price-To-Earnings Ratio vs. peers for valuation analysis.

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MSDL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Capital Markets Industry?

22 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LCLN Lincoln International
3.9xn/aUS$2.42b
GAM General American Investors Company
4.7xn/aUS$1.53b
ASA ASA Gold and Precious Metals
1.7xn/aUS$1.11b
CSHR CoinShares
4.6xn/aUS$523.17m
MSDL 14.8xIndustry Avg. 40.6xNo. of Companies68PE020406080100+
22 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MSDL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the US Capital Markets industry average (40.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MSDL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MSDL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.8x
Fair PE Ratio13.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MSDL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MSDL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.37
US$15.61
+1.54%
6.84%US$17.00US$14.00n/a7
Jun ’27US$15.57
US$15.61
+0.24%
6.84%US$17.00US$14.00n/a7
May ’27US$15.75
US$15.57
-1.13%
6.80%US$17.00US$14.00n/a7
Apr ’27US$13.82
US$15.61
+12.93%
6.95%US$17.00US$14.00n/a7
Mar ’27US$14.80
US$17.25
+16.55%
5.08%US$18.50US$16.00n/a7
Feb ’27US$16.20
US$17.54
+8.25%
5.19%US$18.50US$16.00n/a7
Jan ’27US$16.48
US$17.68
+7.27%
4.05%US$18.50US$16.50n/a7
Dec ’26US$17.15
US$17.68
+3.08%
4.05%US$18.50US$16.50n/a7
Nov ’26US$16.95
US$18.14
+7.04%
6.70%US$20.00US$16.00n/a7
Oct ’26US$15.82
US$18.30
+15.68%
8.39%US$20.00US$16.00n/a5
Sep ’26US$18.12
US$19.10
+5.41%
7.48%US$21.00US$17.00n/a5
Aug ’26US$18.55
US$20.00
+7.82%
4.47%US$21.00US$19.00n/a5
Jul ’26US$18.88
US$19.90
+5.40%
4.02%US$21.00US$19.00n/a5
Jun ’26US$19.75
US$19.90
+0.76%
4.02%US$21.00US$19.00US$15.575
May ’26US$19.24
US$20.20
+4.99%
5.10%US$22.00US$19.00US$15.755
Apr ’26US$20.38
US$20.90
+2.55%
3.17%US$22.00US$20.00US$13.825
Mar ’26US$20.24
US$21.40
+5.73%
2.29%US$22.00US$21.00US$14.805
Feb ’26US$21.01
US$21.40
+1.86%
2.29%US$22.00US$21.00US$16.205
Jan ’26US$20.66
US$21.30
+3.10%
4.09%US$22.50US$20.00US$16.485
Dec ’25US$21.34
US$21.10
-1.12%
4.83%US$22.50US$20.00US$17.155
Nov ’25US$20.02
US$21.10
+5.39%
4.83%US$22.50US$20.00US$16.955
Oct ’25US$19.87
US$21.10
+6.19%
4.83%US$22.50US$20.00US$15.825
Sep ’25US$20.66
US$21.10
+2.13%
4.83%US$22.50US$20.00US$18.125
Aug ’25US$20.39
US$21.50
+5.44%
6.90%US$23.50US$20.00US$18.555
Jul ’25US$21.73
US$22.10
+1.70%
4.61%US$23.50US$21.00US$18.885
Jun ’25US$23.15
US$22.10
-4.54%
4.61%US$23.50US$21.00US$19.755
US$15.61
Fair Value
1.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
7
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/20 09:48
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/18 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund is covered by 9 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard ShaneJ.P. Morgan
Melissa WedelJ.P. Morgan
Paul JohnsonKeefe, Bruyette, & Woods