Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock Overview
Engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 1/6 |
| Future Growth | 5/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 5/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
AAOI Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$78
FV
128.9% overvalued intrinsic discount189
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Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$178.54 |
| 52 Week High | US$191.87 |
| 52 Week Low | US$12.56 |
| Beta | 3.76 |
| 1 Month Change | 66.16% |
| 3 Month Change | 368.24% |
| 1 Year Change | 1,177.11% |
| 3 Year Change | 9,550.81% |
| 5 Year Change | 2,404.07% |
| Change since IPO | 1,692.57% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • May 02
AAOI: Hyperscale Orders And US Capacity Expansion Will Shape A Balanced Outlook
Narrative Update on Applied Optoelectronics The analyst price target for Applied Optoelectronics has been reset from $140 to $190. Analysts point to the recently announced over $200 million 1.6T transceiver order from a long-term customer, which is viewed as consistent with ongoing demand for 400G and upcoming 800G deployments across major cloud accounts.Seeking Alpha • Apr 21
Applied Optoelectronics Has A Vision Of Success, And So Do I
Summary Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is transitioning from a volatile optical supplier to a vertically integrated AI-optics leader, capturing major hyperscaler demand. AAOI's recent orders totaling $124 million, improved margins, and a ramp in 800G transceiver production signal accelerating operational leverage and demand alignment. Despite narrowing losses and revenue growth, AAOI risks remain from customer concentration, unnormalized profitability, and potential competition. I maintain a bullish Buy rating, targeting $244.84 in five years, as AAOI’s foresight and execution position it for sustained growth in AI-driven optical infrastructure. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 18
AAOI: Large Hyperscale Transceiver Orders Will Ultimately Struggle To Justify Current Expectations
Analysts lifted their price target framework for Applied Optoelectronics sharply, with fair value rising from $50.00 to $140.00. They point to the new over $200m 1.6T transceiver order from a long term customer, expected strength in 400G, and anticipated 800G demand starting in Q2 as key supports for higher projected revenue growth, margins, and future P/E multiples.Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 02
AAOI: Hyperscale Orders And US Capacity Expansion Will Shape A Balanced Outlook
Narrative Update on Applied Optoelectronics The analyst price target for Applied Optoelectronics has been reset from $140 to $190. Analysts point to the recently announced over $200 million 1.6T transceiver order from a long-term customer, which is viewed as consistent with ongoing demand for 400G and upcoming 800G deployments across major cloud accounts.Seeking Alpha • Apr 21
Applied Optoelectronics Has A Vision Of Success, And So Do I
Summary Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is transitioning from a volatile optical supplier to a vertically integrated AI-optics leader, capturing major hyperscaler demand. AAOI's recent orders totaling $124 million, improved margins, and a ramp in 800G transceiver production signal accelerating operational leverage and demand alignment. Despite narrowing losses and revenue growth, AAOI risks remain from customer concentration, unnormalized profitability, and potential competition. I maintain a bullish Buy rating, targeting $244.84 in five years, as AAOI’s foresight and execution position it for sustained growth in AI-driven optical infrastructure. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 18
AAOI: Large Hyperscale Transceiver Orders Will Ultimately Struggle To Justify Current Expectations
Analysts lifted their price target framework for Applied Optoelectronics sharply, with fair value rising from $50.00 to $140.00. They point to the new over $200m 1.6T transceiver order from a long term customer, expected strength in 400G, and anticipated 800G demand starting in Q2 as key supports for higher projected revenue growth, margins, and future P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Apr 03
AAOI: Concentrated Hyperscale Orders Will Likely Cap Future Share Returns
Analysts have raised their price targets on Applied Optoelectronics, supported by a higher fair value estimate of $90.30 and recent research that reflects a more constructive view on large 1.6T, 400G, and 800G transceiver orders from cloud customers. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight the over US$200m 1.6T transceiver order from a long term customer as a meaningful proof point that large cloud buyers are committing real dollars to Applied Optoelectronics' higher speed products.
New Narrative • Apr 02
The Company Powering AI’s Data Traffic, Not Its Headlines
Rating: Speculative Buy / High Risk Style: AI infrastructure “picks-and-shovels” growth name Core debate: Is AAOI a genuine bottleneck asset in AI networking, or a cyclical optics supplier temporarily enjoying peak demand and peak multiples? Executive view Applied Optoelectronics is no longer just a small-cap optical component company.
Narrative Update • Mar 20
AAOI: Heavy Reliance On One Hyperscale Order Will Limit Future Upside
Analysts lifted their price target on Applied Optoelectronics from $15 to $54, reflecting updated views that stronger 400G and 800G demand, large 1.6T transceiver orders, and higher projected revenue growth and profit margins could justify a higher fair value and future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Applied Optoelectronics highlights both strong interest in high speed optical products and a wide range of opinions on what that might mean for the stock.Narrative Update • Mar 06
AAOI: Amazon Reliance And Unproven 800G Ramp Will Restrain Future Returns
Analysts have sharply raised their price targets on Applied Optoelectronics, with one increase from $15 to $54. They cite continued strength in 400G products and the expectation that 800G will begin contributing incremental growth from Q2, particularly supported by firm demand from a key customer such as Amazon.Narrative Update • Feb 20
AAOI: New Facility And AI Transceiver Demand Will Support Balanced Future Outlook
Analysts have slightly raised their price target on Applied Optoelectronics to $50.00, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth of 82.48%, profit margins of 16.73%, and a future P/E of 12.31x. What's in the News Held a groundbreaking ceremony for a new 210,000 square foot manufacturing facility at 1111 Gillingham St. in Sugar Land, Texas, expanding its physical footprint for future production capacity (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Feb 05
AAOI: Houston Automation Strength And Amazon Expectations Will Shape A Measured Outlook
Narrative Update on Applied Optoelectronics Analysts now frame Applied Optoelectronics' outlook around a split view, with one firm lifting its price target to $35 after a site visit that highlighted manufacturing capabilities, while another reiterates a $15 target and a Sell rating based on valuation concerns and what it calls ambitious 2026 revenue expectations tied to the Amazon opportunity. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Applied Optoelectronics splits into two camps, with some analysts highlighting upside linked to manufacturing strength and others questioning how much of the potential growth story is already reflected in the share price.Narrative Update • Jan 22
AAOI: InP Lasers And Automation Will Support Future AI Transceiver Leadership
Analysts have lifted their blended price target range for Applied Optoelectronics toward the mid teens to mid $30s, reflecting mixed views that balance concerns about valuation and ambitious revenue assumptions with confidence in the company's InP laser capabilities and highly automated transceiver production. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Applied Optoelectronics shows a clear split between bullish analysts who see upside from the company’s technology and production capabilities and more cautious voices focused on valuation and execution risk.Analysis Article • Jan 21
Revenues Tell The Story For Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) As Its Stock Soars 25%
Despite an already strong run, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAOI ) shares have been powering on, with a gain...Narrative Update • Jan 07
AAOI: Texas Expansion And Amazon Contract Expectations Will Shape A Balanced Outlook
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Applied Optoelectronics from $30.60 to $36.60, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E after recent research visits and valuation checks that highlighted both the company’s manufacturing capabilities and differing views on how much of the Amazon opportunity is already priced in. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Applied Optoelectronics presents a split view, with some analysts focusing on the company’s operational strengths and others pointing to valuation risks and ambitious revenue assumptions tied to the Amazon opportunity.Narrative Update • Dec 23
AAOI: InP Laser And Transceiver Automation Will Support Structurally Stronger Margins
We raise our fair value estimate for Applied Optoelectronics to $50 from $34, reflecting analysts' higher confidence in the company's laser and transceiver capabilities and structurally stronger margins, even as some caution that the current share price already embeds aggressive growth expectations. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts point to Applied Optoelectronics' differentiated position in indium phosphide, or InP, laser epitaxy and advanced transceiver manufacturing as key reasons for raising price targets and assigning favorable ratings.Narrative Update • Dec 09
AAOI: Texas Expansion And Amazon Opportunity Will Shape A Measured Future Outlook
Analysts have slightly increased their price target for Applied Optoelectronics, with the blended target edging higher by about $5 to approximately $35. They highlight the company’s strengthened InP laser and automated transceiver manufacturing capabilities while still cautioning that valuation already reflects much of the anticipated Amazon-driven upside.Narrative Update • Nov 25
AAOI: Expanded Manufacturing in Texas Will Drive Future Industry Leadership
Applied Optoelectronics' analyst price target has increased from $28.40 to $30.60. This change reflects analysts' recognition of stronger operational capabilities and advanced production efficiencies amid ongoing debates over growth prospects and valuation.Analysis Article • Nov 14
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) Stocks Pounded By 27% But Not Lagging Industry On Growth Or Pricing
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAOI ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 27% after a relatively good...Narrative Update • Nov 05
AAOI: Future Market Share Gains Will Depend On Successful Capacity Expansions
Analysts have raised their price target for Applied Optoelectronics from $18 to $25. This change reflects expectations for increased datacenter optical market share and further sales growth resulting from new awards, capacity expansions, and favorable industry dynamics.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Raise Targets for Applied Optoelectronics Amid Growth Optimism and Valuation Adjustments
Analysts have increased their price target for Applied Optoelectronics, raising it by $1.20. This change reflects growing optimism driven by expectations of expanded market share and a stronger sales outlook.Analysis Article • Sep 16
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) Stocks Shoot Up 32% But Its P/S Still Looks Reasonable
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAOI ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 32% gain in the last...Narrative Update • Aug 27
US And Taiwan Manufacturing Will Fuel Optical Market Expansion
Despite optimism around Applied Optoelectronics’ long-term market share gains, upcoming sales growth, and favorable geopolitical tailwinds, the consensus analyst price target has been reduced from $29.50 to $27.20. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts see strong potential for 2026 sales growth driven by new customer awards.Narrative Update • Aug 10
US And Taiwan Manufacturing Will Fuel Optical Market Expansion
Despite a substantial improvement in net profit margin and a sharp decline in future P/E, the consensus analyst price target for Applied Optoelectronics has been revised downward from $31.33 to $29.50. What's in the News Provided Q3 2025 revenue guidance of $115 million to $127 million.Analysis Article • Jul 18
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) Looks Just Right With A 75% Price Jump
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAOI ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 75% gain in the last...Analysis Article • May 09
After Leaping 38% Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAOI) Shares Are Not Flying Under The Radar
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAOI ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced...
New Narrative • Apr 24
Texas Expansion And New Transceivers Will Fuel Next-Generation Networks
Ramp-up of high-capacity transceiver products and capital investments signal potential revenue growth through increased sales volume in AI-focused datacenter architectures.Seeking Alpha • Mar 14
Applied Optoelectronics: Sell The Rally
Summary Shares of Applied Optoelectronics rallied in after hours after the company disclosed a warrant agreement with Amazon.com. However, Amazon is well known for using its bargaining power to extract warrants from exchange-listed suppliers. Essentially, the agreement represents a volume discount. The company reported Q4/2024 and full-year results largely in line with expectations, but ramping up datacenter equipment sales will be key going forward. However, required investments in working capital and additional production capacity are likely to result in substantial near-term cash flow pressures. Given near-term execution risk and potential for additional dilution, investors should consider using the Amazon-related rally to dispose of existing positions. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 04
Applied Optoelectronics Q4: Top-Line Growth Overshadowed By Decline In Margins
Summary Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. reported strong Q4 sales growth but faced significant declines in efficiency and profitability, raising concerns about a sustainable turnaround. The company's CATV segment drove top-line growth, but gross margins and net income suffered due to one-time charges and operational inefficiencies. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including tariff wars, add volatility, making it difficult to confidently predict a near-term improvement in profitability. While the company shows promise with new product lines and capacity expansion, I need to see consistent operational improvements before considering investment in AAOI stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 24
Applied Optoelectronics Rises On Strong Q4-2024 Outlook And Future Data Center Growth
Summary Applied Optoelectronics is up 326.38% over the last six months. The company reported impressive Q3-2024 results and foresees a 40% revenue growth QoQ for Q4-2024. The company benefits from the high demand for fiber optics used at US datacenters. Demand for fiber optics at datacenters will continue to grow with the mass applications of AI and internet computing. I continue my rating of a Buy, although it comes at a risk. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 11
Applied Optoelectronics: Risk/Reward Increasingly Unfavorable After Epic Rally (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Last month, Applied Optoelectronics reported third-quarter results largely in line with expectations. Sales increased by more than 50% sequentially, driven by strong demand for data center and CATV products. Persistent cash outflows from increased working capital levels and elevated capex requirements were more than offset by proceeds from additional share sales into the open market. AAOI's Management projected Q4 revenues to increase by another 50%+ on a quarter-over-quarter basis, driven by persistent tailwinds from AI data center demand and the DOCSIS 4.0 transition in CATV. Following the epic rally in the shares, the company's valuation has reached elevated levels relative to much larger peers. With risk/reward looking increasingly unfavorable, I am downgrading the company's shares from "Hold" to "Sell" with a price target of $22, which is based on 30x estimated 2025 earnings per share. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 11
Applied Optoelectronics' Bright Prospects Dimmed By Valuation Concerns
Summary Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. has shown significant growth, particularly in its CATV and 400G segments, with a 150% stock increase in the past six months. Despite strong revenue and customer growth, Applied Optoelectronics faces challenges with negative earnings, high P/E ratio, and cash flow issues. AAOI stock is currently rated as a hold due to overvaluation concerns, ongoing losses, and heavy reliance on a small group of customers. Future consideration for buying would depend on a stock price drop that better reflects the company's actual fundamentals. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 27
Applied Optoelectronics: Mixed Results But Improved Outlook - Hold
Summary Applied Optoelectronics reported mixed Q2/2024 results, with revenue in line but gross margins below expectations, and continued negative free cash flow. The company continued to sell newly issued shares into the open market, thus resulting in substantial dilution for common equity holders. Following substantial delays, revenues under two supply agreements with key customer Microsoft are expected to ramp in the second half of the year. With H2 revenues expected to double from subdued first half levels, working capital requirements are likely to increase quite meaningfully. For my part, I prefer to remain on the sidelines until there is more clarity regarding the company's near-term margin and cash flow trajectory. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 07
Applied Optoelectronics: The Bottom Is Not Likely In
Summary Applied Optoelectronics provides niche technology solutions to various markets including data centers, cable TV, and telecommunications. Despite positive developments like a deal with Microsoft, the company has seen a significant decline in its stock price, and it is struggling financially. Continued downside is possible due to volatility in key markets, declining revenue, and lack of positive earnings or cash flows. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 17
Applied Optoelectronics: A Turnaround Could Be Around The Corner
Summary Applied Optoelectronics has come under pressure due to revenue and margin contraction in recent quarters. However, the company's pivotal Data Center segment is about to receive a major boost as operators upgrade their networks to meet increased demand due to AI boom. AAOI stock could see strong growth over the next three years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 27
Applied Optoelectronics Tanks On Q1 2024 Outlook: Buy The Dip
Summary Applied Optoelectronics' stock price dropped over 30% after weak Q1-2024 outlook, but is expected to recover in the long term. The company's Q4-2023 earnings report showed improvement YoY and QoQ, but came in below expectations. Applied Optoelectronics' products are in high demand for data infrastructure and AI technology, positioning the company for future growth. I continue a rating of Buy and recommend using the drop in price to reload positions. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 30
Applied Optoelectronics: A Risky Play At A Premium
Summary Applied Optoelectronics is a leading fiber-optic networking player specializing in high-speed data transmission through optical communication technology. The data center market is experiencing booming growth due to factors such as digital transformation, IoT, cloud computing, and big data. The valuation of Applied Optoelectronics is impacted by volatility and the correct Beta to use, but the company is closer to profitability and the fiber optics market is strong. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| AAOI | US Communications | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 16.8% | 0.05% | 3.2% |
| 1Y | 1,177.1% | 87.6% | 31.0% |
Return vs Industry: AAOI exceeded the US Communications industry which returned 87.6% over the past year.
Return vs Market: AAOI exceeded the US Market which returned 31% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| AAOI volatility | |
|---|---|
| AAOI Average Weekly Movement | 25.3% |
| Communications Industry Average Movement | 8.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: AAOI's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: AAOI's weekly volatility has increased from 19% to 25% over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 4,691 | Thompson Lin | www.ao-inc.com |
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China. The company offers optical modules, optical filters, lasers, laser components, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, turn-key equipment, headend, node, and distribution equipment, as well as amplifiers. It sells its products to internet data center operators, cable television, telecom equipment manufacturers, fiber-to-the-home, and internet service providers through its direct and indirect sales channels.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| AAOI fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$14.45b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$38.23m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$455.72m |
31.4x
P/S Ratio-373.9x
P/E RatioIs AAOI overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| AAOI income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$455.72m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$318.80m |
| Gross Profit | US$136.91m |
| Other Expenses | US$175.14m |
| Earnings | -US$38.23m |
Last Reported Earnings
Dec 31, 2025
Next Earnings Date
May 07, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -0.48 |
| Gross Margin | 30.04% |
| Net Profit Margin | -8.39% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 26.9% |
How did AAOI perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/06 12:09 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Ku Kang | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |
| Richard Shannon | Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC |