Headwater Exploration Inc.

TSX:HWX Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$2.9b

Headwater Exploration Valuation

Is HWX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of HWX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: HWX (CA$12.08) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CA$43.36)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: HWX is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HWX?

Key metric: As HWX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HWX. This is calculated by dividing HWX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HWX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.7x
EarningsCA$153.21m
Market CapCA$2.94b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HWX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HWX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.9x
FRU Freehold Royalties
30.3xn/aCA$2.8b
PXT Parex Resources
7.2x14.72%CA$2.6b
ATH Athabasca Oil
21x23.64%CA$5.3b
CJ Cardinal Energy
93.3x48.83%CA$2.0b
HWX Headwater Exploration
18.7x-12.92%CA$2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HWX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the peer average (37.9x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HWX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CNE Canacol Energy
1xn/aUS$38.14m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
ELEF Silver Elephant Mining
0.5xn/aUS$7.08m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
HWX 18.7xIndustry Avg. 19.2xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HWX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (19.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HWX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HWX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.7x
Fair PE Ratio13.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HWX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HWX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$12.08
CA$14.44
+19.52%
7.63%CA$16.00CA$13.00n/a8
Apr ’27CA$11.98
CA$14.31
+19.47%
7.99%CA$16.00CA$13.00n/a8
Mar ’27CA$12.56
CA$11.56
-8.00%
11.07%CA$14.00CA$10.00n/a9
Feb ’27CA$11.00
CA$11.17
+1.52%
9.44%CA$13.00CA$10.00n/a9
Jan ’27CA$9.37
CA$10.11
+7.91%
5.10%CA$11.00CA$9.50n/a9
Dec ’26CA$9.02
CA$9.17
+1.63%
4.26%CA$10.00CA$8.75n/a9
Nov ’26CA$7.40
CA$9.08
+22.75%
5.80%CA$10.00CA$8.00n/a9
Oct ’26CA$7.53
CA$8.78
+16.57%
5.61%CA$9.50CA$7.75n/a9
Sep ’26CA$6.81
CA$8.72
+28.08%
6.54%CA$9.50CA$7.75n/a9
Aug ’26CA$7.06
CA$8.72
+23.54%
6.54%CA$9.50CA$7.75n/a9
Jul ’26CA$6.73
CA$8.47
+25.89%
11.34%CA$10.00CA$6.50n/a9
Jun ’26CA$6.24
CA$8.25
+32.21%
8.33%CA$9.50CA$7.00n/a9
May ’26CA$5.62
CA$8.28
+47.29%
10.21%CA$10.00CA$6.75n/a9
Apr ’26CA$6.45
CA$8.94
+38.67%
8.82%CA$10.00CA$7.25CA$11.989
Mar ’26CA$6.36
CA$9.11
+43.26%
6.61%CA$10.00CA$8.25CA$12.569
Feb ’26CA$6.69
CA$9.11
+36.19%
6.61%CA$10.00CA$8.25CA$11.009
Jan ’26CA$6.61
CA$9.19
+38.99%
6.49%CA$10.00CA$8.25CA$9.378
Dec ’25CA$6.88
CA$9.39
+36.52%
5.30%CA$10.00CA$8.50CA$9.027
Nov ’25CA$6.73
CA$9.39
+39.57%
6.65%CA$10.50CA$8.50CA$7.407
Oct ’25CA$6.54
CA$9.54
+45.90%
5.74%CA$10.50CA$9.00CA$7.536
Sep ’25CA$6.85
CA$9.88
+44.16%
5.80%CA$10.50CA$9.00CA$6.816
Aug ’25CA$7.11
CA$9.88
+38.89%
5.80%CA$10.50CA$9.00CA$7.066
Jul ’25CA$7.25
CA$9.83
+35.63%
6.34%CA$10.50CA$9.00CA$6.736
Jun ’25CA$7.63
CA$9.86
+29.19%
5.89%CA$10.50CA$9.00CA$6.247
May ’25CA$7.38
CA$9.54
+29.21%
6.33%CA$10.50CA$8.75CA$5.627
Apr ’25CA$7.75
CA$8.86
+14.29%
4.74%CA$9.50CA$8.00CA$6.457
CA$14.44
Fair Value
16.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
8
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/14 21:50
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/14 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Headwater Exploration Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Laique Ahmad Amir ArifATB Cormark
Patrick O'RourkeATB Cormark
Kuno RyckborstBeacon Securities Limited