Mister Car Wash, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MCW Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.7b

Mister Car Wash Valuation

Is MCW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MCW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

US$8.96
Fair Value
43.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: MCW ($5.11) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($8.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MCW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MCW?

Key metric: As MCW is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MCW. This is calculated by dividing MCW's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MCW's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.2x
EarningsUS$87.11m
Market CapUS$1.67b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MCW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MCW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.2x
OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings
29.5x14.32%US$2.1b
CSV Carriage Services
13.7x6.62%US$706.3m
FTDR Frontdoor
18.8x3.12%US$4.8b
HRB H&R Block
10.8x2.47%US$6.6b
MCW Mister Car Wash
19.2x22.00%US$1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MCW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x) compared to the peer average (18.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MCW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Services Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WW WW International
0.3x-92.66%US$293.62m
STG Sunlands Technology Group
1.9xn/aUS$93.13m
RGS Regis
0.6xn/aUS$74.27m
REDU RISE Education Cayman
1xn/aUS$40.41m
MCW 19.2xIndustry Avg. 17.9xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MCW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (17.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MCW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MCW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.2x
Fair PE Ratio23.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MCW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MCW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$5.11
US$8.17
+59.92%
14.13%US$11.00US$6.00n/a16
Oct ’26US$5.32
US$8.17
+53.61%
14.13%US$11.00US$6.00n/a16
Sep ’26US$5.71
US$8.17
+43.12%
14.13%US$11.00US$6.00n/a16
Aug ’26US$5.71
US$8.48
+48.59%
14.45%US$11.00US$6.00n/a16
Jul ’26US$6.24
US$9.38
+50.24%
13.76%US$11.00US$6.25n/a16
Jun ’26US$7.08
US$9.36
+32.19%
14.20%US$11.00US$6.00n/a16
May ’26US$7.49
US$9.36
+24.96%
14.20%US$11.00US$6.00n/a16
Apr ’26US$7.92
US$9.53
+20.34%
13.18%US$11.00US$6.00n/a16
Mar ’26US$8.49
US$9.50
+11.90%
13.59%US$11.00US$6.00n/a15
Feb ’26US$8.02
US$9.34
+16.46%
15.36%US$11.00US$6.00n/a15
Jan ’26US$7.29
US$9.58
+31.39%
14.48%US$11.00US$6.00n/a14
Dec ’25US$8.00
US$9.58
+19.73%
14.48%US$11.00US$6.00n/a14
Nov ’25US$7.93
US$9.55
+20.38%
15.02%US$11.00US$6.00n/a13
Oct ’25US$6.42
US$9.58
+49.20%
16.01%US$12.00US$6.00US$5.3214
Sep ’25US$6.51
US$9.58
+47.14%
16.01%US$12.00US$6.00US$5.7114
Aug ’25US$7.33
US$9.58
+30.68%
16.01%US$12.00US$6.00US$5.7114
Jul ’25US$6.72
US$9.43
+40.25%
18.54%US$12.00US$5.00US$6.2414
Jun ’25US$7.03
US$9.43
+34.07%
18.54%US$12.00US$5.00US$7.0814
May ’25US$6.69
US$9.62
+43.75%
17.69%US$12.00US$5.00US$7.4915
Apr ’25US$7.39
US$9.70
+31.21%
18.51%US$12.00US$5.00US$7.9214
Mar ’25US$8.04
US$9.60
+19.36%
19.01%US$12.00US$5.00US$8.4913
Feb ’25US$8.75
US$9.63
+10.00%
21.74%US$13.00US$5.00US$8.0212
Jan ’25US$8.64
US$9.00
+4.17%
26.49%US$13.00US$5.00US$7.2911
Dec ’24US$7.70
US$8.95
+16.29%
26.56%US$13.00US$5.00US$8.0011
Nov ’24US$4.98
US$9.86
+98.07%
23.69%US$13.00US$5.00US$7.9311
Oct ’24US$5.51
US$10.05
+82.31%
19.96%US$13.00US$7.00US$6.4211
US$8.17
Fair Value
37.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/21 14:31
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/20 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mister Car Wash, Inc. is covered by 23 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Justin KleberBaird
Tristan Thomas-MartinBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Robert OhmesBofA Global Research