Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Overview
Operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 5/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 5/6 |
MPC Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 84 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$255.03 |
| 52 Week High | US$261.61 |
| 52 Week Low | US$154.65 |
| Beta | 0.53 |
| 1 Month Change | 19.35% |
| 3 Month Change | 27.17% |
| 1 Year Change | 57.16% |
| 3 Year Change | 130.53% |
| 5 Year Change | 319.94% |
| Change since IPO | 1,207.85% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • May 11
MPC: Oil Price Assumptions And Buybacks Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have raised their average price target on Marathon Petroleum by about $9.66 to $256.83, citing a combination of updated oil price assumptions, revised sector views, and refreshed earnings estimates across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Marathon Petroleum points to a wide range of views, with many firms revisiting their models and price targets as they update oil price assumptions and sector stances.Analysis Article • May 08
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:MPC ) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish...Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 11
MPC: Oil Price Assumptions And Buybacks Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have raised their average price target on Marathon Petroleum by about $9.66 to $256.83, citing a combination of updated oil price assumptions, revised sector views, and refreshed earnings estimates across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Marathon Petroleum points to a wide range of views, with many firms revisiting their models and price targets as they update oil price assumptions and sector stances.Analysis Article • May 08
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:MPC ) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish...Seeking Alpha • Apr 30
Marathon Petroleum: Earnings Next Week To Reflect Recent Tailwinds
Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation is rated a Buy, trading at only 10x 2026 earnings with strong sector tailwinds and a history of market outperformance. MPC benefits from surging crack spreads, unique heavy crude refining capacity, and immediate windfall profits due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite a challenging 2025, MPC maintained high utilization, robust EBITDA per barrel, shareholder returns, and a strong balance sheet with $3.7B in cash. Analysts consistently underestimate MPC; upcoming earnings could see a 15–20% revenue boost, with capital allocation decisions key to future upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 25
MPC: Oil Price Assumptions And Labor Talks Will Shape Future Returns
The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has been revised higher by $10.57 to $247.18. Analysts point to updated fair value estimates, modestly higher revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, as well as a slightly richer future P/E multiple as key drivers for the change.Narrative Update • Apr 10
MPC: Higher Oil Assumptions And Labor Talks Will Shape Future Returns
The updated analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum increases to $236.61 from $216.17. Analysts attribute this change to adjustments in fair value assumptions, a slightly lower discount rate, revised revenue growth and profit margin inputs, and a different future P/E outlook.
New Narrative • Apr 10
Refining And Midstream Expansion Will Drive Major Upside Over The Next Decade
Catalysts About Marathon Petroleum Marathon Petroleum operates a large, integrated refining, marketing, midstream and renewables platform across the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 27
MPC: Elevated Oil Assumptions And Labor Uncertainty Will Pressure Future Returns
Narrative Update on Marathon Petroleum The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has shifted from about $202.50 to roughly $216.17. Analysts have cited updated oil price assumptions, recent Middle East related supply risk, and refiners' earnings estimates as key drivers behind their revised outlook.
New Narrative • Mar 27
Sour Crude Exposure And Midstream Assumptions Will Pressure Long Term Earnings Outlook
Catalysts About Marathon Petroleum Marathon Petroleum operates a large, integrated refining, marketing, midstream and renewables business concentrated in the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 11
MPC: Refining Conditions Labor Talks And Buybacks Will Shape Future Outcomes
The analyst fair value estimate for Marathon Petroleum has edged up by about $3 to $202.50, reflecting recent price target revisions across the Street as analysts weigh slightly adjusted discount rate and P/E assumptions, along with their updated views on refining conditions into 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Marathon Petroleum has been mixed, with several firms adjusting price targets in both directions as they reassess refining fundamentals, crude assumptions, and where consensus sits for 2026.Narrative Update • Feb 24
MPC: Refining Margins And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Future Outcomes
Analysts have nudged their average price targets on Marathon Petroleum higher, with recent changes ranging from a $1 lift at the low end to a $28 increase at the high end. These moves reflect updated views on refining fundamentals, margins and longer term P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Feb 08
MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Margins Will Drive Balanced Future Outcomes
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Marathon Petroleum, supporting a modest increase in our fair value estimate from US$194.61 to about US$199.56. They cite updated commodity assumptions, mixed views on refining conditions into 2026, and revised expectations for earnings and future P/E multiples.Narrative Update • Jan 23
MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Fundamentals Will Shape Balanced Future Upside
Narrative Update Our Marathon Petroleum fair value estimate moves lower by about US$5 to US$194.61 per share, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate, modestly softer revenue growth and margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E multiple that align with recent analyst price target trims and cautious views on sector outperformance, even as some expect near term refining fundamentals to remain supportive. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Marathon Petroleum points to a mixed setup, with most analysts trimming or fine tuning price targets while keeping broadly balanced views on upside potential and execution risks.Narrative Update • Jan 07
MPC: Capital Returns And Refining Execution Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update: Marathon Petroleum Analyst Price Target Shift The updated analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum moves slightly lower to about US$200 from roughly US$201, as analysts fine tune their models around commodity assumptions, refining asset optimization, and the role of midstream investments and capital returns in the overall valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Marathon Petroleum cluster around refiners and integrated oil coverage, with analysts fine tuning targets and ratings as they refresh commodity and margin assumptions.Narrative Update • Dec 23
MPC: Capital Returns Will Drive Upside Amid Constructive Refining Tailwinds
Analysts have nudged our Marathon Petroleum fair value estimate slightly lower to approximately $201 from about $201.33 per share, as a modestly higher discount rate and slightly softer margin outlook more than offset incremental optimism around long term refining tailwinds, midstream value creation, and capital return that underpin a broadly higher Street price target range of roughly $189 to $220. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts broadly frame Marathon Petroleum as a top tier refiner with a favorable risk reward profile, pointing to resilient cash generation, disciplined capital allocation, and supportive sector dynamics that justify price targets clustering near the low to mid $200s per share.Narrative Update • Dec 09
MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Investments Will Support Margins In A Tighter Market
Analysts have nudged their average price target for Marathon Petroleum slightly higher, with updated fair value estimates moving from about $199.94 to $201.33 per share. Modestly improved margin expectations and a still supportive, though finely balanced, refining backdrop underpin a more constructive long term outlook.Narrative Update • Nov 24
MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Investments Will Steady Margins Amid Ongoing Volatility
Marathon Petroleum’s analyst price target has moved modestly higher to approximately $199.94 from $197.50, as analysts highlight stable refining margins, ongoing capital allocation discipline, and industry tailwinds in light of updated market and commodity forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent updates from Street research highlight a mixed but generally constructive view on Marathon Petroleum, with analysts noting both structural strengths and emerging risks within the business and sector.Narrative Update • Nov 09
MPC: Capital Returns And Midstream Strength Will Balance Margin Volatility Ahead
Marathon Petroleum’s analyst price target rose slightly from $196.11 to $197.50, as analysts cite ongoing capital discipline and midstream strength, despite soft spots in recent results. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reports on Marathon Petroleum reflect a mix of optimism and caution, as perspectives diverge on the company’s valuation and future prospects.Analysis Article • Nov 04
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At $1.00
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's ( NYSE:MPC ) periodic dividend will be increasing on the 10th of December to $1.00...Narrative Update • Oct 26
Refining Margins And Capital Returns Will Drive Outperformance Amid Market Volatility
Analysts have increased their average price target for Marathon Petroleum from $192.17 to $196.11. This change is attributed to resilient refining margins, ongoing sector tailwinds, and the company's strong position in capital returns amid a volatile oil market environment.Narrative Update • Oct 12
US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities
The analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum has increased by $3 to $192. Analysts cite sector tailwinds, resilient refining margins, and continued strength in global product markets for their updated outlook.Narrative Update • Sep 28
US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities
Marathon Petroleum's fair value estimate has risen to $189.17 as analysts anticipate continued robust refining margins driven by persistent supply tightness, strong margin capture, and positive sector tailwinds, though some caution over valuation following recent outperformance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite robust refining margins and strong margin capture, with recent quarters outperforming expectations and margin strength persisting despite calls for a decline.Analysis Article • Sep 22
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Price In Tune With Earnings
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's ( NYSE:MPC ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.4x might make it look like a...Narrative Update • Sep 13
US Refining Investments Will Secure Future Market Opportunities
Analysts have raised Marathon Petroleum’s price target to $183.50, citing persistent refining margin strength, resilient earnings, and optimism about long-term supply/demand balances—though concerns over valuation and potential crack spread headwinds are tempering further upside. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising price targets due to persistent refining margin strength and tighter-than-expected global supply/demand balances, especially regarding distillate products, with outlooks for 2026 and beyond increasingly supportive.Analysis Article • Aug 08
Results: Marathon Petroleum Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
NYSE:MPC 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Marathon Petroleum's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Seeking Alpha • Mar 26
Marathon Petroleum: Unique Financial Position (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Marathon generates an ex-ordinary amount of cash. In a short period of time, the company could pay off its debt and repurchase a large portion of the stock to leave a very large amount of cash unused. Its partner, MPLX, now pays for the dividend and basic capital, leaving the balance of the cash free for use elsewhere. In a three to five-year period, the company might generate a very large amount of excess cash for what now appears headed toward paying extraordinary high dividends. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 04
Marathon Petroleum: Further Upside Likely After A Better-Than-Feared Q4
Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation has faced challenges due to tighter crack spreads, but its MLP, MPLX, has performed well, contributing to a solid earnings report and supporting shares. MPC's refining operations are undervalued at 3.2x, 2024 EBITDA, with aggressive share repurchases also increasing the per-share value of its MPLX stake. Despite a tough refining environment, MPC's secure dividend and flexible buyback strategy offer a minimum 3% share count reduction and strong shareholder returns. Long-term demand for gasoline and limited refinery supply support MPC's potential for upside, making it a strong buy for patient investors. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 24
Marathon Petroleum: Low Valuation And MPLX Ownership Make It A Buy
Summary Marathon Petroleum is a Buy due to its 64% ownership in MPLX. MPC's market cap is $43 billion, with its MPLX stake valued at $31 billion, leaving refining assets valued at just $12 billion. Continued demand growth along with refinery closures could improve crack spreads in 2025. Sentiment and seasonality for refiners are at a low, which often is a good time to buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 06
Marathon Petroleum: Shares Are Attractive Despite Muted Q3 Results
Summary Marathon Petroleum shares have dropped significantly, but Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, boosting the stock by over 3% and reinforcing my bullish stance. The Company's refining operations' implied equity value has sharply declined, creating a compelling investment opportunity, especially with the company's strong capital return capacity and share repurchases. Despite cyclical challenges, US product demand remains firm, and global policy easing should stabilize economic activity, supporting a recovery in crack spreads. With MPLX providing a valuation floor and MPC's aggressive share count reduction, I see over 40% upside, making MPC a top value opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 20
Framing Marathon Petroleum Financials With Unexpected Weak Spreads (Knees)
Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported stellar Q2 results, but Gulf Coast crack spreads collapsed in September, impacting short-term performance. MPLX's $2.2 billion annualized cash flow significantly supports Marathon's dividends and capital, ensuring generous returns for MPLX investors. Despite short-term challenges, Marathon's long-term strategy focuses on strong mid-cycle margins, significant capital returns, and organic growth opportunities. Management remains committed to share buybacks and sustainable dividend growth, leveraging MPLX's distribution to cover CapEx and dividends, reinforcing Marathon's resilience. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 26
Marathon Petroleum: At An Inflection Point, Downgraded To Hold
Summary Marathon Petroleum Corporation has experienced weaker refining margins in 2024. Its extraordinary share buybacks have recently had the effect of supporting the share price but chipping away at market capitalization. This $54.1 billion market cap company is also a 63.4% owner of $45.8 billion mid-streamer MPLX. Muted demand and higher-cost Canadian crude is offset somewhat by flat oil feedstock prices and the generous dividend Marathon Petroleum receives as majority owner of MPLX. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 16
Marathon Petroleum Corporation: A Solid Oil Refiner Despite Sector Weakness
Summary Marathon Petroleum benefits from geopolitical uncertainty and high oil prices but faces political risks and declining margins due to current oil price weakness. Despite strong financials and significant share buybacks, Marathon Oil's stock price is expected to decline amid falling oil prices and macroeconomic challenges. Marathon Petroleum has outperformed peers due to efficient operations and substantial share buybacks, reducing share count by nearly 50% in three years. The stock is fairly valued with a clean balance sheet, but it's prudent to wait for oil prices and refining margins to improve before buying. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| MPC | US Oil and Gas | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 1.0% | 4.7% | -0.3% |
| 1Y | 57.2% | 34.3% | 24.1% |
Return vs Industry: MPC exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 34.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MPC exceeded the US Market which returned 24.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MPC volatility | |
|---|---|
| MPC Average Weekly Movement | 5.5% |
| Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement | 6.0% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: MPC has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MPC's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1887 | 18,500 | Maryann Mannen | www.marathonpetroleum.com |
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| MPC fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$74.45b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$4.63b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$135.95b |
16.1x
P/E Ratio0.5x
P/S RatioIs MPC overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MPC income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$135.95b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$121.35b |
| Gross Profit | US$14.60b |
| Other Expenses | US$9.97b |
| Earnings | US$4.63b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 15.85 |
| Gross Margin | 10.74% |
| Net Profit Margin | 3.40% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 137.3% |
How did MPC perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
1.6%
Current Dividend Yield25%
Payout RatioDoes MPC pay a reliable dividends?
See MPC dividend history and benchmarks| Marathon Petroleum dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | May 20 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Jun 10 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 1 day |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 22 days |
Does MPC pay a reliable dividends?
See MPC dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/18 16:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is covered by 31 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Theresa Chen | Barclays |
| Phillip Jungwirth | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Jean Ann Salisbury | BofA Global Research |