Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Stock Overview
Operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 4/6 |
| Past Performance | 2/6 |
| Financial Health | 0/6 |
| Dividends | 3/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
AMBP Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 20 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$4.84 |
| 52 Week High | US$5.47 |
| 52 Week Low | US$3.29 |
| Beta | 0.53 |
| 1 Month Change | -4.35% |
| 3 Month Change | 15.24% |
| 1 Year Change | 35.96% |
| 3 Year Change | 47.56% |
| 5 Year Change | -53.86% |
| Change since IPO | -51.60% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Aug 26
AMBP: Fair Value View Weighs Potential Stake Sale Against Execution Risks
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Ardagh Metal Packaging higher from about $4.74 to roughly $5.16. This reflects updated views on improving fundamentals, modestly stronger revenue and margin assumptions, and a slightly lower discount rate informed by a series of recent price target increases across the Street.
Narrative Update • Aug 12
AMBP: Higher Guidance And Sustainability Progress Will Test Recent Repricing
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Ardagh Metal Packaging higher to $4.90 from $4.00, citing stronger first half execution, higher FY26 EBITDA guidance, and a series of recent price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a mix of cautious and constructive views.Analysis Article • Jul 31
Shareholders Will Be Pleased With The Quality of Ardagh Metal Packaging's (NYSE:AMBP) Earnings
The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s ( NYSE:AMBP ) strong earnings didn't offer...Seeking Alpha • Jul 29
Ardagh Metal Packaging: EBITDA Outperformance Supports Further Upside
Summary Ardagh Metal's Q2 Revenue increased 17.7% to $1.71 billion, while adjusted EBITDA reached $240 million. European revenue advanced 13%, supported by 5% volume growth, favourable pricing, and improved input-cost recovery. Contract resets, weaker Brazilian shipments, and residual metal-supply issues weighed on performance, but easier comparisons and improved contract economics could support an Americas recovery. Valuation remains supportive, and Ardagh Metal Packaging increased its EBITDA outlook. We confirm our buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRecent updates
Narrative Update • Aug 26
AMBP: Fair Value View Weighs Potential Stake Sale Against Execution Risks
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Ardagh Metal Packaging higher from about $4.74 to roughly $5.16. This reflects updated views on improving fundamentals, modestly stronger revenue and margin assumptions, and a slightly lower discount rate informed by a series of recent price target increases across the Street.Narrative Update • Aug 12
AMBP: Higher Guidance And Sustainability Progress Will Test Recent Repricing
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Ardagh Metal Packaging higher to $4.90 from $4.00, citing stronger first half execution, higher FY26 EBITDA guidance, and a series of recent price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a mix of cautious and constructive views.Analysis Article • Jul 31
Shareholders Will Be Pleased With The Quality of Ardagh Metal Packaging's (NYSE:AMBP) Earnings
The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s ( NYSE:AMBP ) strong earnings didn't offer...Seeking Alpha • Jul 29
Ardagh Metal Packaging: EBITDA Outperformance Supports Further Upside
Summary Ardagh Metal's Q2 Revenue increased 17.7% to $1.71 billion, while adjusted EBITDA reached $240 million. European revenue advanced 13%, supported by 5% volume growth, favourable pricing, and improved input-cost recovery. Contract resets, weaker Brazilian shipments, and residual metal-supply issues weighed on performance, but easier comparisons and improved contract economics could support an Americas recovery. Valuation remains supportive, and Ardagh Metal Packaging increased its EBITDA outlook. We confirm our buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 29
AMBP: Higher EBITDA Guide And Europe Execution Will Drive Repricing
Ardagh Metal Packaging's analyst price target has moved higher from $5.00 to about $5.91, as analysts point to recent price target increases across the Street and updated expectations for EPS and EBITDA guidance, along with execution. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a cluster of higher price targets, with analysts updating their models around execution, guidance and the latest earnings print.Narrative Update • Jul 14
AMBP: Fair Value View Balances Raised Expectations With Persistent Demand Concerns
Analysts have nudged their price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging to about $4.74, up from $4.50, citing updated views on fair value, discount rate, growth, profitability and future P/E assumptions, along with recent Street research that lifted the stock's target to $4.70 despite mixed demand commentary across the packaging group. Analyst Commentary Street research on Ardagh Metal Packaging highlights a split view, with some bullish analysts adjusting targets higher while more cautious voices point to muted demand trends across the broader packaging group.Narrative Update • Jun 26
AMBP: Mixed Research Signals Suggest Steady Outlook With Measured Future Upside
Analysts have made a small downward adjustment to the Ardagh Metal Packaging price target to reflect mixed recent research signals, with some firms trimming their targets by $0.30 to $1 and others lifting theirs by $0.30, while the underlying fair value and key model assumptions remain largely unchanged. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Ardagh Metal Packaging shows a split in sentiment, with some analysts trimming price targets and others nudging them higher by smaller amounts.Analysis Article • Jun 20
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) Stock Could Be 4% Undervalued After Revenue And Profit Growth
Recent analysis of Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) highlights year-over-year revenue growth of 18.61% and net profit growth of 54.55%, drawing attention even as its overall financial status is described as weak. See our latest analysis for Ardagh Metal Packaging. At a share price of $4.34, Ardagh Metal Packaging has seen a 10.71% 90 day share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 15.36% suggests momentum has been building despite earlier longer term weakness. If this kind...Narrative Update • Jun 11
AMBP: Revised Earnings Framework Should Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have lowered their average price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging to about $4.50 from roughly $4.66, reflecting updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions following recent mixed target revisions from Citi, BofA and UBS. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Ardagh Metal Packaging reflects mixed views, with some analysts slightly increasing price targets and others trimming them, which has resulted in a modestly lower average target.Narrative Update • Apr 11
AMBP: Revised Cash Flow Assumptions Should Support Future Upside Potential
The analyst price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging has been adjusted slightly lower to align with a revised fair value of about $4.66. This reflects updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth and profit margins that analysts have highlighted in recent research.Narrative Update • Mar 28
AMBP: Rising Packaging Demand Should Support Upside Despite Leverage Risk
Analyst price targets for Ardagh Metal Packaging have moved higher to a range of about $4.75 to $6, as analysts cite slightly stronger revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, along with a modestly lower future P/E multiple in their updated models. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a split view on Ardagh Metal Packaging, with several bullish analysts nudging price targets higher while one bearish analyst trims expectations.New Narrative • Mar 22
Tight Can Capacity And Leverage Will Shape Future Earnings Resilience
Catalysts About Ardagh Metal Packaging Ardagh Metal Packaging produces metal beverage cans for soft drinks, beer and a range of other categories across Europe and the Americas. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 14
AMBP: Beverage Can Demand Should Support Upside Despite Leverage Concerns
Narrative Update on Ardagh Metal Packaging The analyst price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging has edged higher as the fair value estimate moves from about $4.86 to roughly $4.92. This shift is supported by a series of recent target increases from $4.25 to $4.75, $5 to $6, and $4 to $5, partly offset by one cut to $3.60 that reflects ongoing concerns about leverage and potential share loss in North America.Narrative Update • Feb 28
AMBP: Fair Valuation Balances Leverage Risks And Beverage Packaging Demand
Analyst fair value for Ardagh Metal Packaging has edged up from about $4.30 to roughly $4.86, reflecting a series of recent price target increases from $4.25 to $4.75 at UBS, $5 to $6 at Citi, and $4 to $5 at Truist, partially offset by BofA trimming its target to $3.60 because of capital structure and leverage concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Ardagh Metal Packaging reflects a split view, with some analysts lifting price targets and others turning more cautious based on the balance sheet and competitive outlook.Narrative Update • Dec 13
AMBP: Slight EPS Upgrades Will Balance Regional Challenges Ahead
Analysts have nudged their price target on Ardagh Metal Packaging up by $0.10 to $4.00, reflecting modestly higher EPS forecasts after what they described as a solid quarter despite regional operating challenges. Analyst Commentary Analyst reactions to the latest results highlight a nuanced view of Ardagh Metal Packaging, with modestly higher earnings expectations but ongoing concerns about regional performance and the overall risk reward profile.Narrative Update • Oct 25
Resilient Earnings And Sustainable Packaging Will Shape Global Expansion Outlook
Narrative Update on Ardagh Metal Packaging Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging to $4.00 from $3.90, citing improved earnings forecasts following the company's solid quarterly performance despite regional headwinds. Analyst Commentary Following the recent quarterly results for Ardagh Metal Packaging, analysts have updated their projections and identified both positive developments and areas of concern that could impact the company's outlook and valuation.Analysis Article • Jun 15
Estimating The Fair Value Of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP)
Key Insights Ardagh Metal Packaging's estimated fair value is US$4.01 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...
New Narrative • Apr 28
Americas And Europe Capacity Expansions Will Unlock Beverage Potential
Strategic entry into new beverage categories and capacity investments support revenue and margin growth despite tight capacity environments.Seeking Alpha • Apr 26
Ardagh Metal Packaging: I Don't Like The Double-Digit Dividend Yield
Summary I've maintained a long position in Ardagh Metal Packaging despite initial losses, focusing on their strong free cash flow profile over the 11% dividend yield. Q1 2025 saw a revenue increase to $1.27B and a gross profit rise of more than 20%, but a net loss due to high depreciation and amortization expenses. Adjusted for working capital changes, the underlying operating cash flow was $103M, leading to a net free cash flow of $58M for common shareholders. I prefer debt reduction over dividends given the $3.4B net debt, but remain invested as the stock trades at less than 8 times sustaining free cash flow. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Apr 23
Insufficient Growth At Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) Hampers Share Price
When you see that almost half of the companies in the Packaging industry in the United States have price-to-sales...Analysis Article • Feb 28
Is There An Opportunity With Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s (NYSE:AMBP) 48% Undervaluation?
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Ardagh Metal Packaging fair value estimate is US$6.07 Ardagh...Seeking Alpha • Jan 08
Ardagh Metal Packaging: Risk-Reward Looks Promising, But Not Out Of The Woods
Summary Ardagh Metal Packaging has a strong market presence in the metal beverage can industry, with production in 9 countries and multi-year contracts with major brands. AMBP has been a source of wealth destruction both in the short-term and the long-term, and we are in two minds over whether this could change. We proceed to discuss various fundamental sub-plots that could weigh on the movement of AMBP. Tactical traders might find AMBP appealing due to its potential for mean-reversion relative to other Russell 2000 peers, and the attractive risk-reward on the standalone charts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 21
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s (NYSE:AMBP) Share Price Is Matching Sentiment Around Its Revenues
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s ( NYSE:AMBP ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x may look like a pretty appealing...Seeking Alpha • Oct 28
Ardagh Metal Packaging: What's Next For This 11% Yielding Stock
Summary Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. shows strong growth potential for 2025, with a positive outlook reinforced by Q3 2024 earnings. Q3 2024 saw a 2% increase in metal beverage can shipments and a 15% rise in adjusted EBITDA, driven by margin normalization in Europe and improved manufacturing in the Americas. Resilient beverage consumption trends and strong input cost management contributed to Ardagh's performance, leading to an increased full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $650M-$660M. Ardagh expects beverage cans to outperform other containers due to their circularity and decarbonization benefits, supported by customer innovation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 11
Ardagh Metal Packaging: Canning Future Growth - Strong Buy
Summary Strong growth prospects in key regions like Brazil outweigh short-term sales declines. Management’s plan to reduce leverage from 5.8x to 5.2x strengthens the financial outlook. Institutional investors, including King Street Capital Management, show bullish sentiment, with significant long positions and increased call options in the last quarter. Strong cash flow supports Ardagh’s ability to manage debt and interest payments while funding growth initiatives. I believe Ardagh is undervalued, with strong cash flow and key metrics below industry averages, making it a Strong Buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jun 04
Ardagh Metal Packaging's (NYSE:AMBP) Dividend Will Be $0.10
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. ( NYSE:AMBP ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.10 per share on the 26th of...Analysis Article • May 09
Ardagh Metal Packaging (NYSE:AMBP) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $0.10
The board of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. ( NYSE:AMBP ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.10 per share on...Seeking Alpha • Apr 29
Ardagh Metal Packaging: Stubbornly Maintaining Its 10% Dividend Yield
Summary Ardagh Metal Packaging reported a strong start to the year with 11% revenue growth in the Americas. The company's operating profit was $14M, resulting in a net loss of $12M. AMBP expects an increase in EBITDA of over 25% for the current quarter and confirms full-year EBITDA at $630-660M. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Apr 22
Ardagh Metal Packaging (NYSE:AMBP) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Feb 25
Investors Interested In Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s (NYSE:AMBP) Revenues
With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 0.8x in the Packaging industry in the United States, you...Analysis Article • Feb 25
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Last week, you might have seen that Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. ( NYSE:AMBP ) released its yearly result to the market...Analysis Article • Nov 09
A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.'s (NYSE:AMBP) 26% Share Price Climb
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. ( NYSE:AMBP ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period...Seeking Alpha • Oct 30
Ardagh Metal Packaging: The 12% Yield Is Now Fully Covered
Summary Ardagh Metal Packaging meets Q3 EBITDA guidance, leading to a positive market reaction. The company reduced its full-year adjusted EBITDA target, slightly disappointing but not negatively impacting the market. Ardagh's dividend is sustainable and fully covered by sustaining free cash flow, with plans to reduce debt and improve debt ratios. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| AMBP | US Packaging | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -3.4% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 1Y | 36.0% | -4.4% | 13.1% |
Return vs Industry: AMBP exceeded the US Packaging industry which returned -4.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: AMBP exceeded the US Market which returned 13.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| AMBP volatility | |
|---|---|
| AMBP Average Weekly Movement | 5.4% |
| Packaging Industry Average Movement | 5.3% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.9% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.4% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: AMBP has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: AMBP's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1932 | 6,500 | Oliver Graham | www.ardaghmetalpackaging.com |
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, and teas, as well as flavored alcoholic beverages to beverage producers. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Fundamentals Summary
| AMBP fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$2.87b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$31.00m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$5.99b |
93.3x
P/E Ratio0.5x
P/S RatioIs AMBP overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| AMBP income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$5.99b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$5.23b |
| Gross Profit | US$765.00m |
| Other Expenses | US$734.00m |
| Earnings | US$31.00m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.052 |
| Gross Margin | 12.77% |
| Net Profit Margin | 0.52% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | -535.9% |
How did AMBP perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
8.3%
Current Dividend Yield771%
Payout RatioDoes AMBP pay a reliable dividends?
See AMBP dividend history and benchmarks| Ardagh Metal Packaging dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Sep 10 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Sep 24 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 2 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 12 days |
Does AMBP pay a reliable dividends?
See AMBP dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/11 21:29 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. is covered by 11 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Patrick Duffy Fischer | Barclays |
| Michael Leithead | Barclays |
| Mark Wilde | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |