Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited

TSE:4502 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥8.1t

Takeda Pharmaceutical Valuation

Is 4502 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of 4502 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: 4502 (¥5095) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (¥13675.02)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 4502 is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4502?

Key metric: As 4502 is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 4502. This is calculated by dividing 4502's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 4502's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.8x
SalesJP¥4.42t
Market CapJP¥8.08t

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 4502's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 4502 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.7x
4568 Daiichi Sankyo Company
2.9x10.23%JP¥5.8t
4578 Otsuka Holdings
2.1x1.87%JP¥4.9t
4519 Chugai Pharmaceutical
11.8x6.02%JP¥14.4t
4503 Astellas Pharma
2x-4.47%JP¥4.1t
4502 Takeda Pharmaceutical
1.8x1.91%JP¥8.1t

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 4502 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the peer average (4.7x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 4502's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Pharmaceuticals Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4541 Nichi-Iko Pharmaceutical
0.1xn/aUS$185.57m
4539 Nippon Chemiphar
0.2xn/aUS$38.83m
No more companies available in this PS range
4502 1.8xIndustry Avg. 2.0xNo. of Companies6PS01.22.43.64.86+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 4502 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the JP Pharmaceuticals industry average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4502's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4502 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.8x
Fair PS Ratio4.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 4502 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4502 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥5,095.00
JP¥5,143.07
+0.94%
9.46%JP¥6,200.00JP¥4,600.00n/a15
Jan ’27JP¥4,835.00
JP¥4,946.14
+2.30%
8.28%JP¥5,500.00JP¥4,300.00n/a14
Dec ’26JP¥4,509.00
JP¥4,923.07
+9.18%
8.23%JP¥5,500.00JP¥4,300.00n/a15
Nov ’26JP¥4,153.00
JP¥4,906.40
+18.14%
8.09%JP¥5,500.00JP¥4,300.00n/a15
Oct ’26JP¥4,260.00
JP¥5,009.13
+17.59%
8.76%JP¥5,900.00JP¥4,500.00n/a16
Sep ’26JP¥4,469.00
JP¥5,029.00
+12.53%
8.47%JP¥5,900.00JP¥4,500.00n/a15
Aug ’26JP¥4,217.00
JP¥4,970.94
+17.88%
8.22%JP¥5,900.00JP¥4,500.00n/a16
Jul ’26JP¥4,394.00
JP¥4,946.56
+12.58%
7.98%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,500.00n/a16
Jun ’26JP¥4,314.00
JP¥5,005.59
+16.03%
9.17%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,400.00n/a17
May ’26JP¥4,372.00
JP¥5,014.17
+14.69%
9.94%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,200.00n/a18
Apr ’26JP¥4,509.00
JP¥4,941.94
+9.60%
10.53%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,200.00n/a18
Mar ’26JP¥4,334.00
JP¥4,838.53
+11.64%
9.88%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,200.00n/a17
Feb ’26JP¥4,209.00
JP¥4,777.35
+13.50%
9.37%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,200.00n/a17
Jan ’26JP¥4,181.00
JP¥4,759.71
+13.84%
9.40%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,835.0017
Dec ’25JP¥4,083.00
JP¥4,809.71
+17.80%
11.03%JP¥5,900.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,509.0017
Nov ’25JP¥4,270.00
JP¥4,777.17
+11.88%
10.53%JP¥5,900.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,153.0018
Oct ’25JP¥4,148.00
JP¥4,768.83
+14.97%
10.59%JP¥5,900.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,260.0018
Sep ’25JP¥4,333.00
JP¥4,768.83
+10.06%
10.59%JP¥5,900.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,469.0018
Aug ’25JP¥4,182.00
JP¥4,697.59
+12.33%
9.16%JP¥5,700.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,217.0017
Jul ’25JP¥4,192.00
JP¥4,744.35
+13.18%
10.41%JP¥5,600.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,394.0017
Jun ’25JP¥4,173.00
JP¥4,801.33
+15.06%
9.98%JP¥5,600.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,314.0018
May ’25JP¥4,143.00
JP¥4,779.11
+15.35%
10.12%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,372.0018
Apr ’25JP¥4,159.00
JP¥4,790.00
+15.17%
10.27%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,200.00JP¥4,509.0018
Mar ’25JP¥4,389.00
JP¥4,742.78
+8.06%
10.22%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,334.0018
Feb ’25JP¥4,306.00
JP¥4,681.67
+8.72%
10.35%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,209.0018
Jan ’25JP¥4,054.00
JP¥4,687.89
+15.64%
10.01%JP¥5,800.00JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,181.0019
JP¥5.14k
Fair Value
0.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/26 07:45
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/26 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2025/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is covered by 29 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Atsushi SekiBarclays
Miki SogiBernstein
Koichi MameganoBofA Global Research