HMC Capital Limited

ASX:HMC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$973.1m

HMC Capital Valuation

Is HMC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of HMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: HMC (A$2.32) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (A$3)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: HMC is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HMC?

Key metric: As HMC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HMC. This is calculated by dividing HMC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HMC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.5x
SalesAU$212.50m
Market CapAU$973.12m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HMC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HMC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.9x
PL8 Plato Income Maximiser
10.7xn/aAU$999.4m
NGI Navigator Global Investments
5.5x12.71%AU$1.1b
RPL Regal Funds Management
2.5x8.95%AU$938.0m
MAF MA Financial Group
0.9x-21.11%AU$1.3b
HMC HMC Capital
4.5x10.84%AU$973.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HMC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.5x) compared to the peer average (4.9x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HMC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Capital Markets Industry?

19 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PPT Perpetual
1.3x-4.46%US$1.31b
MAF MA Financial Group
0.9x-21.11%US$898.93m
BFG Bell Financial Group
1.5x3.50%US$295.88m
COG COG Financial Services
0.7x5.34%US$189.96m
HMC 4.5xIndustry Avg. 4.6xNo. of Companies19PS0612182430+
19 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HMC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.5x) compared to the Australian Capital Markets industry average (4.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HMC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HMC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.5x
Fair PS Ratio3.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HMC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$2.32
AU$3.80
+63.92%
31.49%AU$7.25AU$2.97n/a10
Apr ’27AU$2.72
AU$3.83
+40.92%
31.17%AU$7.25AU$2.97n/a10
Mar ’27AU$2.78
AU$3.97
+42.73%
30.13%AU$7.25AU$2.97n/a10
Feb ’27AU$4.20
AU$4.83
+15.04%
27.99%AU$7.75AU$3.40n/a9
Jan ’27AU$3.96
AU$4.88
+23.22%
28.52%AU$7.75AU$3.40n/a10
Dec ’26AU$3.60
AU$4.88
+35.56%
28.51%AU$7.75AU$3.40n/a10
Nov ’26AU$3.10
AU$4.98
+60.75%
29.21%AU$7.75AU$3.40n/a9
Oct ’26AU$3.20
AU$4.99
+56.08%
29.19%AU$7.75AU$3.40n/a9
Sep ’26AU$3.76
AU$5.06
+34.46%
28.56%AU$7.75AU$3.40n/a9
Aug ’26AU$3.53
AU$6.49
+83.92%
26.46%AU$9.00AU$4.20n/a9
Jul ’26AU$4.22
AU$7.27
+72.23%
23.94%AU$10.00AU$4.60n/a10
Jun ’26AU$5.05
AU$7.76
+53.72%
30.04%AU$12.40AU$4.60n/a10
May ’26AU$5.26
AU$8.88
+68.80%
26.97%AU$12.40AU$5.30n/a9
Apr ’26AU$6.01
AU$10.59
+76.20%
15.43%AU$12.90AU$7.35AU$2.729
Mar ’26AU$9.14
AU$11.54
+26.27%
8.33%AU$12.90AU$9.95AU$2.789
Feb ’26AU$9.51
AU$10.34
+8.68%
14.41%AU$13.15AU$8.20AU$4.209
Jan ’26AU$9.86
AU$10.00
+1.44%
20.94%AU$13.50AU$8.05AU$3.968
Dec ’25AU$12.33
AU$9.12
-26.06%
11.48%AU$11.19AU$8.05AU$3.608
Nov ’25AU$10.17
AU$8.49
-16.48%
5.83%AU$9.10AU$7.75AU$3.1010
Oct ’25AU$8.25
AU$7.82
-5.23%
9.31%AU$9.01AU$6.35AU$3.209
Sep ’25AU$8.46
AU$7.82
-7.59%
9.32%AU$9.01AU$6.35AU$3.769
Aug ’25AU$8.05
AU$7.28
-9.59%
10.22%AU$8.37AU$5.99AU$3.539
Jul ’25AU$7.02
AU$7.15
+1.79%
9.09%AU$7.97AU$5.99AU$4.229
Jun ’25AU$7.20
AU$7.00
-2.84%
8.71%AU$7.97AU$5.99AU$5.058
May ’25AU$6.26
AU$6.75
+7.75%
11.87%AU$8.04AU$5.24AU$5.2610
Apr ’25AU$7.19
AU$6.72
-6.48%
11.92%AU$8.04AU$5.24AU$6.0110
AU$3.8
Fair Value
39.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/10 08:47
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/10 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

HMC Capital Limited is covered by 17 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nicholas McGarrigleBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Benjamin BrayshawBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Andrew MacFarlaneBell Potter