Greggs plc

LSE:GRG Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.6b

Greggs Valuation

Is GRG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of GRG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: GRG (£16.14) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value (£14.38)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: GRG is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GRG?

Key metric: As GRG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GRG. This is calculated by dividing GRG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GRG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.4x
EarningsUK£122.20m
Market CapUK£1.64b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GRG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GRG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.3x
MAB Mitchells & Butlers
9x7.20%UK£1.6b
JDW J D Wetherspoon
12.1x9.98%UK£666.1m
DOM Domino's Pizza Group
11.7x7.93%UK£686.5m
YNGA Young's Brewery
44.4x25.16%UK£469.9m
GRG Greggs
13.4x4.39%UK£1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (19.3x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GRG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HVTA Heavitree Brewery
3.2xn/aUS$12.42m
No more companies available in this PE range
GRG 13.4xIndustry Avg. 14.7xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (14.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GRG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GRG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GRG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£16.14
UK£17.31
+7.30%
16.03%UK£22.00UK£13.30n/a14
Apr ’27UK£15.46
UK£17.31
+11.99%
16.03%UK£22.00UK£13.30n/a14
Mar ’27UK£15.84
UK£17.80
+12.36%
15.56%UK£22.00UK£13.15n/a15
Feb ’27UK£16.07
UK£18.39
+14.45%
17.69%UK£25.00UK£13.15n/a15
Jan ’27UK£16.80
UK£19.43
+15.65%
22.36%UK£26.70UK£12.46n/a15
Dec ’26UK£16.61
UK£19.31
+16.25%
23.17%UK£26.70UK£12.46n/a14
Nov ’26UK£16.13
UK£20.05
+24.29%
21.49%UK£26.70UK£13.30n/a12
Oct ’26UK£17.06
UK£20.40
+19.56%
24.19%UK£30.60UK£13.30n/a12
Sep ’26UK£15.95
UK£20.66
+29.50%
24.80%UK£30.60UK£13.30n/a12
Aug ’26UK£15.92
UK£20.66
+29.75%
24.80%UK£30.60UK£13.30n/a12
Jul ’26UK£19.75
UK£23.13
+17.09%
21.55%UK£32.50UK£13.30n/a11
Jun ’26UK£20.64
UK£23.20
+12.40%
20.59%UK£32.50UK£13.30n/a12
May ’26UK£18.29
UK£23.16
+26.61%
20.63%UK£32.50UK£13.30n/a12
Apr ’26UK£17.80
UK£23.16
+30.09%
20.63%UK£32.50UK£13.30UK£15.4612
Mar ’26UK£21.02
UK£28.70
+36.55%
21.60%UK£40.40UK£17.33UK£15.8412
Feb ’26UK£21.52
UK£28.70
+33.38%
21.60%UK£40.40UK£17.33UK£16.0712
Jan ’26UK£27.86
UK£33.08
+18.73%
11.25%UK£40.40UK£24.00UK£16.8012
Dec ’25UK£27.02
UK£33.14
+22.65%
11.71%UK£40.40UK£24.00UK£16.6111
Nov ’25UK£27.66
UK£33.32
+20.47%
10.43%UK£40.40UK£26.00UK£16.1311
Oct ’25UK£29.42
UK£33.32
+13.27%
10.43%UK£40.40UK£26.00UK£17.0611
Sep ’25UK£31.84
UK£33.14
+4.09%
10.68%UK£40.40UK£26.00UK£15.9511
Aug ’25UK£31.40
UK£33.14
+5.54%
10.68%UK£40.40UK£26.00UK£15.9211
Jul ’25UK£27.60
UK£32.36
+17.23%
11.47%UK£40.00UK£26.00UK£19.7510
Jun ’25UK£29.40
UK£32.28
+9.79%
10.99%UK£40.00UK£26.00UK£20.6411
May ’25UK£27.16
UK£32.04
+17.95%
12.84%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£18.2910
Apr ’25UK£28.74
UK£32.15
+11.85%
13.06%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£17.8010
UK£17.31
Fair Value
6.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/10 16:51
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/10 00:00
Earnings2025/12/27
Annual Earnings2025/12/27

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Greggs plc is covered by 25 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard TaylorBarclays
Matthew AbrahamBerenberg
Timothy RamskillBofA Global Research