Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) Stock Overview
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 2/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
REFI Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 13 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$10.72 |
| 52 Week High | US$14.57 |
| 52 Week Low | US$10.61 |
| Beta | 0.30 |
| 1 Month Change | -5.72% |
| 3 Month Change | -2.46% |
| 1 Year Change | -23.21% |
| 3 Year Change | -29.01% |
| 5 Year Change | n/a |
| Change since IPO | -34.99% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 26
REFI: Merger With BDC And Higher P/E Will Support Undervalued Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance from $12.00 to $13.50, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that feed into a slightly higher discount rate in their valuation work. What’s in the News for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.Seeking Alpha • Jun 10
Chicago Atlantic: Elevated Yield Keeps The Cautious Buy Stance Intact
Summary Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) offers a ~16.7% yield, trading at a >20% discount to book value, appealing to risk-seeking investors. Recent regulatory changes, notably cannabis reclassification, could improve borrower credit quality and after-tax cash flows, but may compress future yields on a more structural basis. Credit quality concerns persist, with increased credit loss provisions and related-party exposures warranting continued scrutiny and active monitoring. REFI continues to be kept as a cautious buy, emphasizing its speculative nature and suitability only for investors comfortable with elevated risk. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRecent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 26
REFI: Merger With BDC And Higher P/E Will Support Undervalued Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance from $12.00 to $13.50, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that feed into a slightly higher discount rate in their valuation work. What’s in the News for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.Seeking Alpha • Jun 10
Chicago Atlantic: Elevated Yield Keeps The Cautious Buy Stance Intact
Summary Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) offers a ~16.7% yield, trading at a >20% discount to book value, appealing to risk-seeking investors. Recent regulatory changes, notably cannabis reclassification, could improve borrower credit quality and after-tax cash flows, but may compress future yields on a more structural basis. Credit quality concerns persist, with increased credit loss provisions and related-party exposures warranting continued scrutiny and active monitoring. REFI continues to be kept as a cautious buy, emphasizing its speculative nature and suitability only for investors comfortable with elevated risk. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 29
REFI: Higher Non Accruals And Downgrade Will Shape Fairly Valued Return Outlook
Analysts lowered their price target on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance by $2 to $14, citing a higher level of non-accruals and an estimated 10.5% cost of equity capital as key inputs in their updated fair value analysis. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have shifted to a more cautious stance on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, reflecting concerns about credit quality and the implications for valuation.Narrative Update • Apr 14
REFI: Higher Non Accruals And Downgrade Will Shape Future Return Expectations
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance by $0.36 to $13.64, citing higher non-accrual levels and a higher estimated cost of equity capital as key reasons for the reset. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are turning more cautious on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, with recent research highlighting rising credit concerns and pressure on the equity risk premium that investors may be demanding.Narrative Update • Mar 31
REFI: Higher Non Accruals And Downgrade Will Shape Future Risk Return Balance
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance to $12.00, reflecting higher concern around non-accruals now at 12% and an estimated 10.5% cost of equity that points to a fair value closer to $13.64 per share. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts are signaling a more cautious stance on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, with the latest views centering on rising non-accruals and the relationship between risk and expected return.Narrative Update • Mar 17
REFI: Rising Non Accruals Will Shape Future Return Profile And Risk
Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance from $14.50 to $12.00, citing higher non accrual levels, a slightly higher discount rate, and updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have flagged rising risk around Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance after the latest quarterly update, with particular attention on credit quality and return expectations.Seeking Alpha • Apr 21
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance: Is The Dividend Yield Safe
Summary Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance has seen its common shares dip year-to-date, driving its dividend yield to 13.5%. The mREIT's fiscal 2024 fourth quarter distributable earnings cover the dividend by just 98%. Macroeconomic headwinds could see the dividend yield requested by income investors continue to ramp up. This could mean more downside ahead. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 25
Expanding In Emerging Cannabis Markets Sparks Growth, Yet Federal Uncertainty And Market Volatility Lurk
Expansion into newly legalizing markets and conservative underwriting positions the company for growth while managing risk effectively.Seeking Alpha • Jun 04
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance: 12% Dividend Yield As Cannabis Set For Reclassification
Summary Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance is a lender to US cannabis operators with total loan commitments of roughly $401.3 million. REFI is currently trading at an 8.4x multiple to annualized first-quarter EPS and a small 4.9% premium to its book value. The uncertainty for REFI shareholders is whether the current dividend faces a near-term reduction with the payout running at 100% against EPS. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 28
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance: Worth Adding At A Lower Price
Summary Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. specializes in originating and investing in senior secured loans to state-licensed cannabis operators. The company reported solid financial performance in 2023Q3. It also has low leverage, strong liquidity, and an attractive loan portfolio. However, the shares are fairly priced based on the book value, so I'm adding the stock to a watchlist for now. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 14
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance declares $0.47 dividend
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (NASDAQ:REFI) declares $0.47/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 12.95% Payable Oct. 14; for shareholders of record Sept. 30; ex-div Sept. 29. See REFI Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.Seeking Alpha • Aug 28
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance: A New Cannabis Lender With A 12.2% Yield
Summary REFI is a small cap cannabis lender that went public in late 2021. The REIT is one of several newer players looking to take advantage of the structural imbalance of supply and demand for capital in the cannabis industry. REFI has grown the portfolio rapidly since the IPO and has a huge yield on their loans. The external management is the biggest red flag with REFI, and the main reason I have kept my position small. REFI has hiked their dividend every quarter since going public. The forward yield now sits at 12.2% if they can maintain their current $0.47 payout. I have followed the cannabis sector for a couple years, and I have been investing a small portion in my portfolio in some of the multi-state operators because I think the long-term risk/reward is favorable, especially for some of the better run companies like Trulieve (OTCQX:TCNNF) and Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX:GTBIF). I have invested a larger portion into REITs focused on the cannabis industry. This includes REITs like Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) and NewLake Capital (OTCQX:NLCP), which primarily own cultivation properties across the US. I also own a chunk of mortgage REIT Advanced Flower Capital Gamma (AFCG), which lends directly to operators and has an impressive portfolio yield. Today's article will be covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI), which went public at the end of 2021 and has a similar operating strategy to AFCG. Investment Thesis REFI is a small cap cannabis lender that holds a portfolio of loans to companies in the growing cannabis sector. The company has grown its portfolio of loans rapidly since the IPO and is able to get huge yields on their loans due to the lack of capital available to the cannabis sector. The biggest red flag to keep an eye on is the external management, which is the main reason I will keeping my position in REFI small. Swinging back to the bullish side of things, the company has hiked the dividend each quarter since going public. If they can maintain the current dividend, the yield is sitting at 12.2%. If they can continue their pattern of quarterly hikes, the yield will be even higher. I'm bullish on REFI due to the high yield and structural lack of capital available to the cannabis industry and I recently bought a starter position in this young REIT. The Cannabis Lending Business The mismatch in supply and demand when it comes to capital available to the cannabis industry is what has drawn me to the cannabis focused REITs. The operators that own the real estate like IIPR and NLCP are lower risk in my opinion, but the lenders like AFCG and REFI have me interested in their large dividends that have grown significantly since their IPOs. I haven't looked into REFI that closely until recently, but I like their portfolio of loans which is well diversified by operator and geography. REFI Loan Portfolio (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance) REFI's portfolio has grown significantly since the IPO gave them with a lot of dry powder to work with. Like other REITs focused on the cannabis sector, they can get attractive terms on their loans due to the lack of capital available to the industry. There aren't many places offering double digit yields, and like AFCG, the yield on the portfolio of loans is huge. REFI Loan Portfolio Growth (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance) The most notable drawback for the cannabis mortgage REITs is their external managements. Plenty of research has been done and externally managed REITs consistently underperform internally managed ones. I think we will eventually see AFCG become internally managed based on some of the language from one of their filings. REFI has a three-year term with their external manager, which is set to expire on 4/30/2024. After that, the agreement will be renewed for one-year periods unless the company or the manager elect not to renew. I'm hopeful that the company will eventually decide to internalize management, but it looks like REFI will be externally managed for the foreseeable future. External Management Agreement (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance) While I think the returns could still be attractive with the cannabis lender REITs, the external management for AFCG and REFI (which I bought a small position in last week) is why I have larger positions in IIPR and NLCP. After market declines, you aren't giving up that much in yield, and you get internal management along with the actual ownership of the real estate. However, the dividend growth has got my attention and was the main reason I recently bought a couple shares of REFI. The DividendSeeking Alpha • Aug 09
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Non-GAAP EPS of $0.50, Net Interest Income of $11.4M misses by $0.03M
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance press release (NASDAQ:REFI): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.50. Net Interest Income of $11.4M misses by $0.03M.Seeking Alpha • May 27
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance: Cannabis Lender Stuck Between A Rock And A Hard Place
REFI is a mortgage REIT that lends to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry. It is currently trading at 1.1x P/B and yields 9% (in-line with other mREITs with better risk profiles). If current legal conditions persist, REFI will not be able to take title to the underlying real estate if a default occurs. Thus, providing no margin of safety to investors. If legal conditions do change, REFI will find it harder to compete against the larger, more traditional and established players who will be free to move into the space. Insiders have been buying but still not enough to justify an investment.Shareholder Returns
| REFI | US Mortgage REITs | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -2.2% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| 1Y | -23.2% | 2.2% | 19.9% |
Return vs Industry: REFI underperformed the US Mortgage REITs industry which returned 2.2% over the past year.
Return vs Market: REFI underperformed the US Market which returned 19.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| REFI volatility | |
|---|---|
| REFI Average Weekly Movement | 4.1% |
| Mortgage REITs Industry Average Movement | 3.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.3% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: REFI has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: REFI's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | n/a | Tony Cappell | www.refi.reit |
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. It engages in originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. The company’s loan portfolio is comprised of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| REFI fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$234.76m |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$30.81m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$49.83m |
7.4x
P/E Ratio4.6x
P/S RatioIs REFI overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| REFI income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$49.83m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$0 |
| Gross Profit | US$49.83m |
| Other Expenses | US$19.02m |
| Earnings | US$30.81m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 1.45 |
| Gross Margin | 100.00% |
| Net Profit Margin | 61.83% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 38.4% |
How did REFI perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
17.5%
Current Dividend Yield129%
Payout RatioDoes REFI pay a reliable dividends?
See REFI dividend history and benchmarks| Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Jun 30 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Jul 15 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 1 day |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 14 days |
Does REFI pay a reliable dividends?
See REFI dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/30 23:28 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/30 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. is covered by 5 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Aaron Grey | Alliance Global Partners |
| Christopher Muller | Citizens JMP Securities, LLC |
| Merrill Ross | Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC |