Seeking Alpha • Apr 05

Genesis Energy: Cash Flow Growth Likely To Slow Down Going Forward (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Genesis Energy stands out as a unique MLP with a dominant offshore pipeline network in the Gulf of America, offering portfolio diversification. GEL experienced transformative cash flow growth in 2025, driven by major offshore projects coming online, but forward growth is expected to moderate. The current 4.09% distribution yield lags peers, though coverage is strong at 1.69x and incremental distribution increases are possible. High leverage (5.12x debt/EBITDA) and limited near-term catalysts suggest partial profit-taking may be prudent, as stronger income opportunities exist elsewhere. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Feb 28

Genesis Energy: Reaching An Inflection Point

Summary Genesis Energy is nearing an inflection point with major capital projects nearly complete, leading to reduced capex and increased free cash flow. Management's focus on cost-cutting and debt reduction positions the company for higher distributions and improved financial health. With a projected adjusted EBITDA of $700 million in 2025, management has a clear pathway to improve the balance sheet. Units are a buy with an updated price target of $18. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Nov 03

Genesis Energy: Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Potential

Summary Genesis Energy recently posted disappointing results for Q3 2024 as they faced various short-term headwinds. Despite hurting their unit price, they still have long-term potential for significant distribution growth. Based upon their guidance for 2025 and beyond, their distributions could potentially double or more once they complete their major spending program. Caution is still warranted right now, given their bank leverage ratio and the fact their forecasts are currently unproven. Due to this mixed and contrasting situation, I will be remaining on the sidelines. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Aug 12

Genesis Energy: Playing The Long Game

Summary Genesis Energy reported strong Q2 results with good cash flow and adjusted EBITDA, maintaining a well-covered distribution. The company operates in the midstream segment of the oil and gas industry, focusing on transportation and production. While the company is well-managed with strong cash flow, the partnership is fairly valued, leading to a hold rating for investors. Units are a hold with a price target of $15. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Dec 02

Genesis Energy: 2025 Could Be A Big Year

Summary Genesis Energy is set to benefit from two major projects, including the expansion of its soda ash facility and the SYNC Pipeline and CHOPs expansion project in the GoM. The company will be a huge beneficiary when the soda ash market eventually rebounds. While the stock carries risk due to its balance sheet and exposure to soda ash prices, it looks like a solid speculative "Buy." Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Sep 11

Genesis Energy: LT Outlook Remains Strong Despite Lowered Guidance Following Q2 Results

Summary Genesis Energy 2Q23 EBITDA beat: Adjusted EBITDA came in at $198M vs $188M/$199M consensus/our estimate. Segment margin beat at $215M vs $206M as Minerals beat while Offshore Pipeline was light. Guidance Lowered: Adjusted EBITDA reduced to $725-$745M from $780-$810M EBITDA, mainly on weaker than expected Soda Ash pricing for the remainder of 2023. Longer Term above average return opportunity remains: Assuming 1.5 standard deviations below the five-year average still suggests ~70% upside by the end of 2024. Units repurchase announcement suggests GEL management believes GEL units are undervalued and likely to be able to generate sufficient cash flow to create additional demand for its own units. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jul 21

Genesis Energy: Strong Outlook Despite Slight Q1 Miss, Maintain Strong Buy

Summary Strong return opportunity: even assuming 6.5x-7.5x 2024E EBITDA (~1.9 to 2.9 std dev below 5-year avg), Genesis Energy, L.P. units value at $17-$24/unit, or ~73%-144% upside over the next 18 months. Genesis Energy Q1 2023 Segment Margin: missed on rail disruption in soda ash business and was in line or beat in other segments. Guidance Affirmed: $780-$810M EBITDA for 2023 affirmed, which is conservative, because it assumes a worldwide recession. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jul 13

Genesis Energy: Set To Rally With The Revival In Offshore Drilling

Summary Genesis Energy, L.P. units have lagged the rally in offshore drilling stocks. Half of the company's cash flow is derived from its offshore Gulf of Mexico assets. Growth in its Gulf of Mexico segment would bolster free cash flow and bring about distribution hikes and capital appreciation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Jun 07

Genesis Energy: A Unique High-Yielder In The Midstream Sector

Summary Genesis Energy, L.P. is a unique midstream company that operates in many sectors that peers do not. The company has significant near-term growth potential in both the traditional and green energy sectors. The company has largely addressed the debt problems that it had prior to the pandemic and is now one of the strongest companies in the industry financially. Genesis Energy's 5.99% yield is easily sustainable and could be increased in the near future. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha • Feb 22

Genesis Energy GAAP EPS of $0.15 in-line, revenue of $714.04M

Genesis Energy press release (NYSE:GEL): Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.15 in-line. Revenue of $714.04M (+22.8% Y/Y). Adjusted Consolidated EBITDA of $736.3 million for the trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2022 and a bank leverage ratio of 4.14X Expect to generate Adjusted EBITDA this year in the range of $780 – $810 million and to exit 2023 with a leverage ratio, as calculated by our senior secured lenders, at or below 4.0 times.

Seeking Alpha • Jan 18

Genesis Energy announces public offering of senior notes

Genesis Energy (NYSE:GEL) has announced the commencement of a registered, underwritten public offering of $400M in aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2030. We intend to use a portion of the net proceeds from the offering to fund the purchase price and accrued and unpaid interest for all of our 5.625% senior unsecured notes due 2024 and the redemption price and accrued and unpaid interest for any 5.625% senior unsecured notes due 2024.

Seeking Alpha • Jan 12

Genesis Energy declares $0.15 dividend

Genesis Energy (NYSE:GEL) declares $0.15/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 5.61% Payable Feb. 14; for shareholders of record Jan. 31; ex-div Jan. 30. See GEL Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Seeking Alpha • Dec 26

My Top 2023 Pick: Genesis Energy

Summary Genesis Energy had a positive year featuring multiple "beat and raise" quarters and issuing healthy guidance for 2023, yet units are down 20% from earlier this year. While debt levels are a concern, they are rapidly coming under control as EBITDA grows. Genesis is roughly 4 quarters away from generating significant FCF after expansion projects are completed which can be used to repay debt and rapidly delever. Genesis's two major business units are recession resistant and own nearly irreplaceable assets. Genesis units could offer investors a total return triple in 2 years. Tell me if you're heard this story before: a Master Limited Partnership that has been paying out far more in distributions than prudent gets itself into trouble when a Black Swan event (COVID) happens and has to drastically cut distributions and sell a portion of its assets. As a result, the unit price is decimated, leaving current unitholders hopelessly underwater and swearing they'll never touch this or any other MLP again. Sound familiar? Data by YCharts Genesis Energy (GEL) certainly fits this description, and its unit price is significantly below where it was pre-COVID despite EBITDA fully recovering and the company issuing bullish guidance for 2023. This is providing a compelling opportunity as the company owns extremely valuable assets and is in the middle of a turnaround that the market is not yet giving it credit for. Genesis Energy At a Glance As is normal with my writing, I'm not going to spend pages repeating what is in the investor deck. There are many articles that dive deeper into the company's background and history, and I encourage you to read both them and the investor deck, which is very detailed, before considering an investment. Genesis Segment EBITDA (Genesis Investor Presentation) I'm going to focus on Genesis' two main business that will drive the valuation Offshore Pipeline segment, which owns nearly irreplaceable pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico. Sodium Minerals and Sulfur Services segment, of which natural Soda Ash production is the major product. Both of these businesses are performing well and growing, and have a significant number of catalysts over the next 18-24 months which I believe will result in Genesis rerating. Genesis Capital Structure Genesis Energy has an Enterprise Valuation of roughly $5 billion, of which $4 billion is made up of debt and preferred equity. Genesis Capital Structure (Genesis Investor Presentation) The level of debt is what adds risk to this investment, but is also part of the reason the unit price is so low. The company is deleveraging quickly by growing EBITDA and has called out deleveraging as a corporate priority. Insiders, which own a significant amount of units, likely also realize this is a big factor in the current low valuation, along with the much smaller distribution compared to historic levels. EBITDA has grown rapidly this year, and as a result leverage ratios have improved and are down from over 5x to 4.2x in the last quarter. Genesis Debt Schedule (Genesis Investor Presentation) Showing a focus on debt levels, Genesis has even been quietly repurchasing some of its 2027 Senior Notes in the open market when these issues have traded at a discount. Genesis Energy Debt Schedule (GEL Q3-22 10-Q) In addition to the debt, there is a significant amount of convertible preferreds outstanding. Genesis Preferred Equity (Genesis Energy Investor Presentation) The amount of interest Genesis pays is certainly the most concerning part of this investment, but it is rapidly coming under control by two businesses that I believe have extremely bright futures. Genesis CapEx Plans - When will we see the real Free Cash Flow? 2022 was a year where Genesis paid a small distribution while retaining most FCF to pursue two major growth projects The Granger soda ash plant reopening and expansion, a roughly $350 million expansion. The majority of this CapEx is due to be spent in 2022 per Grant Sims on the Q4-21 Conference Call. Granger is set to reopen in early 2023, and the expansion should be online by Q3. A $500 million expansion of its offshore pipeline system to connect two major new oil fields to be completed in late 2024. I expect 2023 will be a year similar to 2022 in which FCF will be used to finish funding these projects. In 2024 and beyond, Genesis will have ample FCF (I will cover in detail below) which I believe they will use to rapidly deleverage and increase the distribution, which could lead to a rerating of the units. Offshore Pipeline Business and Valuation I'm bullish on the future of oil in general, and Gulf of Mexico offshore oil in particular, as the economics become increasingly compelling as compared to shale. While shale oil offers far faster time to production, breakeven prices continue to drift higher due to a combination of less well productivity and an increase in material and labor costs. Share Breakevens (JP Morgan estimates) While Gulf of Mexico offshore production has lots of its own challenges, the breakeven oil prices offering compelling economics for new developments, especially projects that reuse existing infrastructure. In this article in the Journal of Petroleum Engineering, Shell estimated breakeven costs under $35/bbl for medium sized floaters, like the Independence Hub to be used in the Salamanca development project. Volumes in Genesis's two major GoM pipelines, CHOPS and Poseidon, have grown decently when you consider there were two major oil crashes in this timeline. Genesis Offshore Pipeline Volumes (Genesis Investor Presentation) Both pipelines have significant spare capacity, which if/when is contracted, results in FCF for Genesis without having to spend much additional money. Genesis Offshore Pipeline Volumes (Genesis Investor Presentation) The positive news is that a significant amount of this capacity is due to be filled over the next two years. Murphy Oil's (MUR) King's Quay FPS is already online and the project looks like a home run. According to Murphy's latest public disclosure, King's Quay is producing volumes in excess of 90,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from only 5 of the 7 original wells, and are expected to bring the sixth and seventh wells online in the near future and are working to increase the capacity beyond the original design capacity of 85,000 bpd of oil and 100 mcf over the remainder of the year. BP's (BP) Mad Dog 2 field with 140kpd should be coming online sometime in mid-2023. BP has not publicly explained the delays, as this field was supposed to come online in late 2022. But the wells for this field are already drilled, and I expect the project to come online soon. Genesis Offshore Pipeline Key Events (Genesis Investor Presentation) Beacon Offshore Energy's Shenandoah project and LLOG's Salamanca project, which represents another $100-150 in incremental EBITDA from Genesis $500 million investment to increase the capacity of the CHOPS pipeline and build a new lateral (the SYNC project) to reach these fields. Beyond these already sanctioned projects, Genesis remains "in active discussions" with the operators of multiple infilled subsea and/or secondary recovery development opportunities, representing upwards of 200,000 barrels of oil per day in the aggregate that can turn to production over the next 2 to 4 years." I believe in the next 3-4 years, these pipelines all become fully filled. Soda Ash Business and Valuation Soda Ash, generally viewed as a boring yet profitable business, is set to accelerate in the coming years partly as a result of green transition, as Lithium Carbonate requires significant amounts of Soda Ash. SA Author Michael Boyd wrote a compelling case for this 18 months which seems to be playing out judging by the strength in the price of Soda Ash. There are some other markers to the value of this business. During the Q4-2021 Conference Call, CEO Grant Sims said During the fourth quarter, we saw Sisecam, a multinational glass and chemicals manufacturer out of Europe, acquired a controlling stake in one of our neighbors in Green River, Wyoming. The consideration paid implied a transaction value of roughly $530 per ton of existing production capacity. This recent data point if applied to our fully expanded 4.8 million tons of production capacity would imply a valuation of over $2.5 billion for our soda ash business by itself. Since then, Soda Ash prices have increased significantly. If this sale happened today, I would expect it to be closer to a $3-3.5 billion deal. At a $3 billion valuation for this business, Genesis could sell it and be nearly debt free. 2022 Soda Ash Pricing (Genesis Q3-22 10-Q) Looking at this another way, this segment did $219 million in segment margin for the first 9 months of this year when manufacturing (namely auto, a major user of glass) was still constrained from the supply chain crisis. Annualizing this puts the business near $300 million, and the company has guided to 2023 pricing being above 2022. The Westvaco facility produces 3.5 million tons of soda ash; Granger will add another 1.3 million tons. The Alkali business constitutes 75-80% of this segment's revenues. With Granger, this segment could do $350-400 million in futures years if pricing holds near current levels.

Seeking Alpha • Dec 12

Genesis Energy: Positive Momentum Heading Into 2023

Summary Genesis Energy lagged most of its midstream peers during 2021 and early 2022 that saw much faster recoveries from the severe downturn of 2020. Thankfully, the second half of 2022 is proving fruitful with their financial performance improving materially. This positive momentum heading into 2023 appears set to continue with their generalized guidance seeing double-digit earnings growth. Nevertheless, they remain very highly leveraged, which creates a mixed outlook for their distribution safety and accompanying growth. When combined with the continued economic risks on the horizon, I still believe that maintaining my hold rating is appropriate. Introduction Despite seeing a disappointing start 2022, thankfully there were emerging green shoots for Genesis Energy (GEL) following the second quarter, notwithstanding the dark clouds forming on the horizon given the gloomy economic outlook for 2023, as my previous article discussed. Alas, it remains too early to tell how the economy will play out in the year ahead, although thankfully, they are building a solid base with positive momentum heading into 2023 on the back of their financial performance improving materially and strong guidance. Coverage Summary & Ratings Since many readers are likely short on time, the table below provides a brief summary and ratings for the primary criteria assessed. If interested, this Google Document provides information regarding my rating system and importantly, links to my library of equivalent analyses that share a comparable approach to enhance cross-investment comparability. Author Detailed Analysis Author Even though their cash flow performance saw a disappointing start to 2022 in the first quarter, it was positive to see emerging green shoots during the second quarter. Now their results for the third quarter have been released, thankfully these have grown stronger with their financial performance improving materially, both on the surface and underlying levels. Starting with the former, their operating cash flow during the first nine months landed at $252.6m and thus for the first time in a while, shows an improvement year-on-year versus their previous result of $242.4m during the first nine months of 2021. This is a material improvement compared to the first half of 2022, which saw their operating cash flow down almost 16% year-on-year or during the first quarter, which saw its result down even more at almost 30% year-on-year, as per my previously linked article. Author If moving onwards to the underlying level, it is easier if viewed on a quarterly basis whereby their working capital movements are more visible, which saw a build of $22.3m during the third quarter of 2022. If these are excluded across the first nine months, it shows their underlying operating cash flow at $301.2m and thus a very impressive circa 28% higher year-on-year versus their previous equivalent result of $235.9m during the first nine months of 2021. Unsurprisingly, this is also a material improvement compared to the first half of 2022, whereby their equivalent result was only 17.59% higher year-on-year or in the case of the first quarter, its result was only broadly flat year-on-year, as per my previously linked article. Notwithstanding this positive development, there is still an important caveat to consider, which is their continued very high capital expenditure, relatively speaking. Whilst their operating cash flow is finally improving, it is mirrored by higher capital expenditure that clocked $309.2m during the first nine months of 2022, thereby sitting significantly higher than the $218.1m spent during the first nine months of 2021. As a result, they still saw negative free cash flow of $109.4m during the first nine months of 2022, once considering their accompanying $52.8m of miscellaneous cash expenses as listed beneath the first graph above. Despite their operating cash flow improving, this is still down sequentially versus their previous result of negative $64.4m following the second quarter and thus once again, their distribution payments remain debt-funded with very weak coverage. On one hand, the relatively small size of their distribution payments of $55.2m compared to their operating cash flow of $252.6m during the first nine months of 2022 creates medium to long-term scope for growth as they are not necessarily burdensome. Whereas on the other hand, their accompanying relatively high capital expenditure leaves no free cash flow thus far, which means in the short-term higher distributions would merely see more debt piled onto their already very highly leveraged balance sheet, thereby leaving their distribution growth outlook mixed. As of the time of writing, they have not given concrete information regarding their forecast capital expenditure during 2023, which is not necessarily unusual but nevertheless, they still see further material double-digit earnings growth for the year ahead, as per the commentary from management included below. Assuming steady performance from our other business segments, we do not see any reasonably likely scenario where we do not generate adjusted EBITDA next year in the mid-700s. Accordingly, we would otherwise expect to deliver more than 10% sequential growth from 2022 to 2023 from our base businesses." Genesis Energy Q3 2022 Conference Call. Even though their capital expenditure remains a mystery, as they do not routinely provide its guidance, the prospects for their adjusted EBITDA to grow by circa 10% year-on-year should see the positive momentum continue into 2023. Importantly, it also lowers the risks of a distribution cut because their operating cash flow should grow comparably, thereby automatically further lowering the relative size of their distribution payments or preferably, increasing the prospects for free cash flow that may finally end their reliance on debt funding. Either way, their distributions are no longer risky because to give credit where due, management skilfully sustained them amidst the ups and downs throughout the past years, which often at times saw them skating on thin ice, proverbially speaking, as my other article highlighted in late 2021. That said, the dark clouds as mentioned in my previous article following the second quarter of 2022 remain on the horizon as the economic outlook for 2023 is certainly no brighter than a few months ago and thus risks remain. Although, at least this time around they are heading into this uncertain year with positive momentum and thus a solid base, thereby helping mitigate the severity of the risks. Author Naturally, deeper negative free cash flow resulted in higher net debt with its level landing at $3.371b following the third quarter of 2022, thereby higher versus their previous level of $3.315b following the second quarter. Thankfully, this was only an immaterial difference that should in theory, be replicated once again during the fourth quarter. When looking ahead into 2023, the direction their net debt takes will be heavily influenced by their unknown capital expenditure. Even though they do not provide exact guidance for this variable, they still stated their "expected growth in earnings and increasing amount of cash generated by our businesses will provide flexibility to comfortably fund our remaining capital expenditure and further simplify our capital structure in the coming years", as per slide two of their December 2022 Wells Fargo presentation. Whilst this outlook is more positive than expecting to borrow to fund capital expenditure, this generalized guidance does not necessarily mean their operating cash flow will fund both their capital expenditure and distribution payments, nor does it technically apply to any given year. At least if nothing else, it seems their net debt should only increase at a fairly modest pace during 2023 and possibly beyond, although this obviously remains a wait-and-see situation.

Seeking Alpha • Oct 27

Genesis Energy GAAP EPS of -$0.12 misses by $0.14, revenue of $721.24M

Genesis Energy press release (NYSE:GEL): Q3 GAAP EPS of -$0.12 misses by $0.14. Revenue of $721.24M (+39.0% Y/Y). Net Income Attributable to Genesis Energy, L.P. of $3.4 million for the third quarter of 2022 compared to Net Loss Attributable to Genesis Energy, L.P. of $20.9 million for the same period in 2021. Cash Flows from Operating Activities of $94.3 million for the third quarter of 2022 compared to $54.2 million for the same period in 2021.

Seeking Alpha • Oct 11

Genesis Energy declares $0.15 dividend

Genesis Energy (NYSE:GEL) declares $0.15/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 6.13% Payable Nov. 14; for shareholders of record Oct. 31; ex-div Oct. 28. See GEL Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Seeking Alpha • Oct 04

Genesis Energy: Emerging Green Shoots, But Dark Clouds Forming

Summary Genesis Energy saw a disappointing start to 2022 as their cash flow performance seemingly failed to capitalize on the booming operating conditions. Thankfully, this changed during the second quarter, with their underlying cash flow performance enjoying a sizeable improvement. This was driven by their volumes finally increasing, thereby seeing emerging green shoots after a slow recovery. Whilst positive, I see dark clouds on the horizon that could derail this recovery as the economy appears likely to suffer with risks of a recession looming. This means that I only believe upgrading my sell rating slightly to a hold rating is appropriate. Introduction The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war early in 2022 sent energy prices surging, but as my previous article warned, Genesis Energy (NYSE:GEL) was failing to capitalize on these booming operating conditions, which did not bode well for their distributions that currently provide a high 6.33% yield. To the slight relief of unitholders, the second quarter saw emerging green shoots, although disappointingly with the economic outlook beginning to falter, I see dark clouds forming on the horizon, as discussed within this follow-up analysis. Executive Summary & Ratings Since many readers are likely short on time, the table below provides a very brief executive summary and ratings for the primary criteria that were assessed. This Google Document provides a list of all my equivalent ratings, as well as more information regarding my rating system. The following section provides a detailed analysis for those readers who are wishing to dig deeper into their situation. Author *Instead of simply assessing distribution coverage through distributable cash flow, I prefer to utilize free cash flow since it provides the toughest criteria and also best captures the true impact upon their financial position. Detailed Analysis Author On the surface, their cash flow performance following the second quarter of 2022 does not appear much better than its disappointing performance during the first quarter with their operating cash flow of $158.3m for the first half still down 15.89% year-on-year versus their previous result of $188.2m during the first half of 2021. After including their capital expenditure and routine large miscellaneous cash expenses detailed beneath the graph included above, their free cash flow was down even more following the second quarter of 2022 with a result of negative $68.4m during the first half, versus negative $51.2m during the first quarter. This once again produced a cash burn even before funding their distribution payments, which has consistently been the case for years, as their peak full-year distribution coverage going back to 2019 was only a weak 75.07%. Whilst less than stellar on the surface, if removing their temporary working capital movements their underlying operating cash flow climbs to $184.5m during the first half of 2022 and thus an impressive 17.59% higher year-on-year versus their previous equivalent result of only $156.9m during the first half of 2021. These emerging green shoots mark a sizeable improvement versus the first quarter of 2022 when their underlying operating cash flow was essentially flat year-on-year at $83.4m versus $82.2m respectively across these same two points of time. It appears this is driven by their volumes finally normalizing after a slow recovery from the severe downturn of 2020, as per the commentary from management included below. “These results were largely driven by a return to normal operations and increasing volumes in our offshore segment relative to the first quarter as well as sequential quarterly growth in each of our other segments, which is reflective of the constructive backdrop for each of our specific businesses.” -Genesis Energy Q2 2022 Conference Call. Even though this unexpected improvement is a positive surprise, realistically, it would be prudent not to read too much into merely one quarter, especially given their disappointing performance as recently as the first quarter of 2022. Further enhancing this point, the global economy appears to be hurtling towards a recession or if not, at least a material slowdown, as central banks rapidly tighten monetary policy to combat high inflation. This could potentially weaken operating conditions, thereby stomping out these green shoots, metaphorically speaking and thus in my view, it remains a firm wait and see to assess if the sizeable improvement to their underlying cash flow performance continues or falters. This is important given their consistent sub-100% distribution coverage and subsequently discussed problematic very high leverage, which together leaves their distributions risky. Author Unsurprisingly, their cash burn saw their net debt climb higher during the second quarter of 2022 with its level of $3.315b representing an increase of 9.87% versus its level of $3.017b when conducting the previous analysis following the first quarter. Whilst an increase was expected, its particularly large size stems from the redemption of their Alkali asset-level preferred units, which cost $288.6m and thus were refinanced as debt, thereby contributing to the majority of the increase observed. Whilst helpful in cleaning up their capital structure, their balance sheet still carries a further $790.1m of Class A convertible preferred units, which continue weighing down their cash flow performance given their $37.4m of distribution payments during the first half of 2022. If these were also refinanced through this same means, it would see their net debt exceed $4b for the first time, thereby highlighting the full magnitude of the work to completely clean up their capital structure. Author Following the net debt increasing materially during the second quarter of 2022, their stronger financial performance was broadly counteracted and thus sees their leverage effectively unchanged. As a result, their respective net debt-to-EBITDA and net debt-to-operating cash flow of 5.95 and 8.98 are similar to their respective results of 5.65 and 9.04 when conducting the previous analysis following the first quarter. Since these obviously remain well above the threshold for the very high territory of 5.01, once again their problematic very high leverage remains unchanged. When looking elsewhere, their leverage ratio as utilized by their management and lenders to assess their credit facility covenant dropped to 4.49, as per page one of their second quarter of 2022 results announcement. Unlike their broader leverage ratios, this marks a large decrease versus their result of 5.10 when conducting the previous analysis following the first quarter, which they seemingly feel is the only leverage metric that matters, as per the commentary from management included below. “Importantly, we fully expect to exit 2022 with a leverage ratio as calculated by our senior secured lenders at or below 4.5x, which by the way, is the only relevant leverage covenant anywhere in our capital structure and the only calculation that I think is worth analyzing and talking about.” -Genesis Energy Q2 2022 Conference Call (previously linked). Whilst I respect their stance, it remains my view that broader leverage still matters, especially when entering an era of rapidly tightening monetary policy that is seeing liquidity removed from the system at the fastest rate in many years. I especially feel comparing net debt to their operating cash flow is particularly useful because unlike their accrual-based metrics, across time it provides a less massaged view of their leverage, especially given the following two reasons skewing the leverage ratio utilized by management.

Seeking Alpha • Jul 26

Genesis Energy: Near-Term Growth Potential With A 7.5% Yield But Watch The Debt

Genesis Energy is one of the most unique midstream companies in the business as it operates in several segments that we do not typically see in the sector. The company has some significant growth prospects offshore in the Gulf of Mexico since production in that area is poised to grow. The company's soda ash business is going to see a cash flow boost in 2023 when a new producing facility comes online. The company has made some progress in improving its debt load but it is still far above the levels that we really want to see. The 7.49% current yield appears to be quite sustainable. Genesis Energy L.P. (GEL) is one of the most unique midstream companies in the business because it owns and operates far more than pipelines, storage facilities, and other classic midstream assets. However, it does still possess many of the characteristics that investors typically like about midstream companies, such as stable cash flows and incredibly high yields. Indeed, Genesis Energy yields 7.49% as of the time of writing, which is certainly enough to grab the eye of any investor. With that said though, this company was one of the more affected ones by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic as that event forced it to slash its distribution, an event from which it has never fully recovered. The company's distribution has yet to be raised and unfortunately, its partnership units are down 20.44% over the past twelve months. Although the unit's market performance is nowhere near as good as many of the upstream companies in the industry, most midstream companies are down over the past year so this is not as concerning as we may think. In fact, there may be some reasons to consider purchasing Genesis Energy today as the company does boast some very strong growth opportunities right now. However, caution may still be warranted since Genesis Energy has still not overcome the debt problems that have plagued it for many years but it has made some progress in this area. Let us investigate and see if taking a position in the company makes sense today. About Genesis Energy As stated in the introduction, Genesis Energy is one of the more unique midstream companies in the market today, as it operates much more than just pipelines, resource storage, natural gas processing, and similar facilities. The company operates in four separate business segments: Offshore Pipelines, Sodium Minerals & Sulfur Services, Onshore Facilities & Transportation, and Marine Transportation: Genesis Energy Of these four business units, the Onshore Facilities & Transportation unit is the most similar to the other midstream companies that I typically discuss on this site. This unit operates pipelines and terminals in Texas and Louisiana, but admittedly the infrastructure is not particularly extensive as it consists simply of a few relatively short pipelines and ten storage facilities: Genesis Energy By far the most important part of this business is the infrastructure surrounding Exxon Mobil's (XOM) massive Baton Rouge refinery. This is one of the largest crude oil refineries in the United States and Genesis Energy's infrastructure both brings resources to the facilities and carries them away from the refinery so that Exxon Mobil can sell them. As might be expected, Genesis Energy provides this service to Exxon Mobil under a long-term contract that calls for Genesis Energy to be compensated based on the volume of resources that it handles and not their value. When we consider that resource prices are irrelevant under this contract and that the Baton Rouge facility is very important to Exxon Mobil's North American operations, we can see that this operation should be a relatively secure and stable source of cash flow for Genesis Energy. Unfortunately, this business unit is only a relatively small contributor to the company as a whole since it only accounts for 14% of the company's total segment margin (analogous to gross profit). Genesis Energy's largest business unit by far is its Offshore Pipelines business, which accounts for fully 49% of the company's segment margin. Admittedly, this is not an area that we typically see midstream companies active in but it is a critical function in the energy industry. After all, upstream oil and natural gas producers have been operating in the Gulf of Mexico for a very long time and somebody needs to get those produced resources back to the land. This is the service that Genesis Energy is providing for its customers as the company operates an extensive pipeline transportation network stretching the breadth of the Gulf of Mexico: Genesis Energy In total, Genesis Energy owns a total of 2,400 miles of pipelines in the area that are primarily designed to transport crude oil from the offshore platforms to the shore. The sheer scale of this infrastructure makes Genesis Energy one of the largest midstream infrastructure operators in the Gulf of Mexico. The business model here is much the same as the company's onshore pipelines. Genesis Energy provides pipeline transportation for its upstream customers under which the customer compensates Genesis Energy based on the volume of resources that the customer sends through the pipelines, not on the market price of the resources. Fortunately, this volume-based business model could provide Genesis Energy with some growth potential in the coming years, which may be surprising to some readers. The production of crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico got something of a bad rap back in 2010 as a result of the Macondo disaster and although President Obama did take some actions that temporarily slowed down production growth in the Gulf, production has been growing over the past decade. In fact, crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has increased by 71% since 2013. This is expected to increase further over the next two years, although admittedly it will still remain below 2019 levels: Genesis Energy There are some reasons to believe that the expected production growth in 2022 and 2023 will actually occur. This is because it is being driven by projects that are already underway and nearing completion. For example, BP (BP) is bringing phase 2 of its massive Mad Dog project online in 2022 and LLOG will be bringing the Salamanca project online in 2025. This latter one could be especially important since Salamanca's produced resources will be utilizing Genesis Energy's infrastructure to get to shore. In fact, there are several projects that will be coming online within the next three years that may become users of Genesis Energy's infrastructure: Genesis Energy As Genesis Energy's revenues are dependent on volumes, these projects could increase the company's cash flows as they come online due to the incremental resource volumes that could be sent through Genesis Energy's infrastructure. The nice thing about this story is that we can be confident that at least some cash flow growth will actually materialize. This is because Genesis Energy has already received contracts from some of the operators of these projects to provide the necessary midstream takeaway service. The reason that the contracts are awarded in advance of the projects actually coming online is that Genesis Energy needs to ensure that it has the infrastructure in place to provide the needed services and there is no reason for Genesis Energy to spend the money to construct and upgrade infrastructure as needed without having a firm contract in place. With that said though, the company has not divulged exactly how much of an impact any of these new fields coming online will have on its volumes or cash flows so all we can confidently say right now is that the impact will be positive. It is Genesis Energy's Sodium Minerals & Sulfur Services business unit that truly makes the company unique, however. This is partly because Genesis Energy is the largest producer of natural soda ash in the United States. In fact, the company owns approximately 80% of the entire planet's natural soda ash reserves. This is admittedly not a business that we would expect a midstream company to be in but fortunately, it does have some of the characteristics that the ordinary pipeline business possesses, including recession resistance and generally stable cash flows. This is largely because of the things that natural soda ash is used to produce. These items include soaps, detergents, glass, and other types of cleaning supplies. These are all things that tend to retain their demand even during recessions, which means that the natural soda ash itself will retain its demand. This is the characteristic that allows this business unit to be recession-resistant and generally stable since people and businesses always need cleaning supplies. As a result of this, the market price for natural soda ash tends to be remarkably stable regardless of the conditions in the broader economy: Genesis Energy/Data from USGS As we can clearly see, even the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns had a very minimal effect on the price of natural soda ash. This is something that is very nice to see because this is one of the very few areas of its business in which Genesis Energy is exposed to commodity prices and we generally need stable cash flows in order to provide support for the distribution. As the distribution is one of the reasons that investors purchase a company like this, we want every aspect of the business to provide as much support for it as possible. Genesis Energy also has some growth potential here as the global demand for natural soda ash is climbing rapidly. One reason for this is that it takes twice as much soda ash as it does lithium to make either lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate. These are the primary compounds used in lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, which are beginning to see heavy use in electric vehicles and the battery storage technologies that are sometimes used alongside renewable electricity deployments. Thus, Genesis Energy is very well-positioned to profit off of the "green energy" revolution. With that said, in many cases, synthetic soda ash is being used for all of these purposes as opposed to the natural soda ash being produced by Genesis Energy. In fact, synthetic soda ash currently dominates about 80% of the global market for the compound. There are some reasons to believe that natural soda ash can displace some of the synthetic supply from the market. The biggest reason to believe this is economic. Basically, it costs twice as much to produce synthetic soda ash as it does natural soda ash: Genesis Energy/Data from IHS and USGS When we consider this enormous cost advantage, it seems logical that any purchaser would prefer to use natural soda ash if they can obtain it. This is supported by the fact that Genesis Energy has historically sold every ton of soda ash that it can safely produce. Thus, there would seem to be a significant opportunity for Genesis Energy here if it could manage to increase its production. The company is working to do exactly this. Genesis Energy is currently constructing an expansion to its Granger soda ash facilities that should increase its production of natural soda ash by 750,000 tons per year. This expansion is expected to come online sometime in the middle of next year and considering Genesis Energy's cost and pricing advantages compared to the competition, it is likely that the company will have no real trouble selling this extra production. This will naturally give the company a boost to its revenues and cash flows at that time. When we combine this with the impending growth from the company's offshore operations, we can see a very clear pipeline for growth for Genesis Energy. Financial Considerations For quite some time now, my biggest concern with Genesis Energy has been its high debt load. I discussed this in past articles on the company. My reason for this concern is that debt is a riskier way to finance a company than equity because the company has to make regular payments on its debt if it wishes to remain solvent. Thus, a decline in cash flows could push the company into financial distress. Genesis Energy is certainly no stranger to having its finances strained by debt as the stated reason for the company's 2017 distribution cut was to pay down debt. While it has certainly made some progress at this, the debt load is still much higher than I really like to see. One way that we can see that Genesis Energy's debt load is too high is by looking at its leverage ratio, which is also known as the adjusted debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio. This ratio essentially tells us how long it would take the company to completely pay off its debt if it were to devote all its pre-tax cash flow to that task. As of March 31, 2022, this ratio stood at 5.10x based on the company's trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA. This is quite a bit higher than the 5.0x that analysts consider to be reasonable. However, ever since the 2020 energy price collapse, many midstream companies have been trying to get their ratios under 4.0x in order to reduce their risks. That is also where I like to see this ratio, for the same reason. Although Genesis Energy has stated its intention to get its leverage down to that level, we can clearly see that it has a long way to go. Fortunately for Genesis Energy, it does have a little while to go until its debt really becomes a problem. We can see this by looking at the company's debt maturity schedule: Genesis Energy

Seeking Alpha • Jul 13

Genesis Energy declares $0.15 dividend

Genesis Energy (NYSE:GEL) declares $0.15/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 7.63% Payable Aug. 12; for shareholders of record July 29; ex-div July 28. See GEL Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.

Seeking Alpha • May 26

Genesis Energy: New Contracts For 160,000 Bpd Of Oil Transport On CHOPS Affirms Our Bullish Stance

Genesis Energy 1Q22 results beat. Segment margin beat our model by 14% and adjusted EBITDA beat by 4%. Management guided to high end of its previous range on the segment. New contracts/CHOPS expansion is more important. Management said it signed two agreements for an aggregate 160,000bpd on CHOPS. Raising outlook. Our 2023-2024E EBITDA by low single digits and our valuation outlook tracks higher. Balance sheet to continue strengthening: We forecast leverage to fall to 4.8x Debt/EBITDA by the end of 2022 and under 4x by the end of 2023 which would enable a strong increase to distributions/unit. Bottom line is, we forecast above average returns the next two years: We forecast the units to reach $15-$17 by the end of this year and $28-$30 by the end of 2023.

Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	3/6

Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$16.40
52 Week High	US$18.64
52 Week Low	US$14.55
Beta	0.67
1 Month Change	-2.56%
3 Month Change	-7.19%
1 Year Change	5.81%
3 Year Change	53.99%
5 Year Change	74.47%
Change since IPO	-20.96%

	GEL	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	3.8%	5.7%	-1.0%
1Y	5.8%	39.2%	23.3%

GEL volatility
GEL Average Weekly Movement	2.9%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	6.0%
Market Average Movement	7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.2%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

GEL fundamental statistics
Market cap	US$1.99b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$22.71m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.68b

GEL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.68b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.07b
Gross Profit	US$610.86m
Other Expenses	US$633.58m
Earnings	-US$22.71m

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.19
Gross Margin	36.39%
Net Profit Margin	-1.35%
Debt/Equity Ratio	593.1%

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2026/05/19 16:34
End of Day Share Price	2026/05/19 00:00
Earnings	2026/03/31
Annual Earnings	2025/12/31

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

Analyst	Institution
Ethan Bellamy	Baird
Richard Gross	Barclays
Brian Zarahn	Barclays

Genesis Energy (GEL) Stock Overview

Rewards

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Price History & Performance

Recent News & Updates

First quarter 2026 earnings released: US$0.055 loss per share (vs US$0.60 loss in 1Q 2025)

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution, Payable on May 15, 2026

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 07, 2026

Genesis Energy: Cash Flow Growth Likely To Slow Down Going Forward (Rating Downgrade)

Genesis Energy Faces Lawsuit Over Sexual Assault Allegations

Recent updates

First quarter 2026 earnings released: US$0.055 loss per share (vs US$0.60 loss in 1Q 2025)

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.18 announced

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution, Payable on May 15, 2026

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 07, 2026

Genesis Energy: Cash Flow Growth Likely To Slow Down Going Forward (Rating Downgrade)

Genesis Energy Faces Lawsuit Over Sexual Assault Allegations

Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Third quarter dividend increased to US$0.18

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Cash Distribution on Common Units with Respect to the Quarter Ended December 31, 2025, Payable on February 13, 2026

Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: US$0.075 (vs US$0.32 loss in 3Q 2024)

Second quarter dividend of US$0.17 announced

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Cash Distribution on Common Units for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2025, Payable on November 14, 2025

Price target increased by 10% to US$18.00

Upcoming dividend of US$0.17 per share

Price target increased by 8.3% to US$17.33

First quarter dividend of US$0.17 announced

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 31, 2025

First quarter 2025 earnings released: US$0.60 loss per share (vs US$0.086 loss in 1Q 2024)

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.17 announced

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 08, 2025

Price target increased by 9.1% to US$16.00

WE Soda US LLC completed the acquisition of Genesis Alkali Holdings, LLC from Genesis Energy, L.P. (NYSE:GEL) for $1.4 billion.

Genesis Energy: Reaching An Inflection Point

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Third quarter dividend of US$0.17 announced

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 13, 2025

Price target decreased by 13% to US$13.67

Genesis Energy: Short-Term Headwinds, Long-Term Potential

Third quarter 2024 earnings released: US$0.32 loss per share (vs US$0.29 profit in 3Q 2023)

Upcoming dividend of US$0.17 per share

Second quarter dividend increased to US$0.17

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Oct 31, 2024

Genesis Energy: Playing The Long Game

Second quarter 2024 earnings released: US$0.071 loss per share (vs US$0.22 profit in 2Q 2023)

Genesis Energy, L.P. Approves Distribution for the Third Quarter of 2024, Payable on November 14, 2024

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 01, 2024

Price target increased by 7.3% to US$14.67

First quarter dividend of US$0.15 announced

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Distribution on Common Units to the Quarter Ended June 30, 2024, Payable on August 14, 2024

First quarter 2024 earnings released: US$0.086 loss per share (vs US$0.21 loss in 1Q 2023)

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 02, 2024

Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.15 announced

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution on Common Units for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2024, Payable on May 15, 2024

Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 15, 2024

Upcoming dividend of US$0.15 per share at 5.2% yield

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution, Payable on February 14, 2024

Genesis Energy: 2025 Could Be A Big Year

Price target increased by 7.7% to US$14.00

Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.66 (vs US$0.13 loss in 3Q 2022)

Price target increased by 7.9% to US$13.67

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 02, 2023

Upcoming dividend of US$0.15 per share at 5.3% yield

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution on Common Units for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2023, Payable on November 14, 2023

Genesis Energy: LT Outlook Remains Strong Despite Lowered Guidance Following Q2 Results

Price target decreased by 8.9% to US$13.67

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.22 (vs US$0.14 in 2Q 2022)

Genesis Energy, L.P. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 03, 2023

Upcoming dividend of US$0.15 per share at 6.2% yield

Genesis Energy: Strong Outlook Despite Slight Q1 Miss, Maintain Strong Buy

Genesis Energy, L.P. Declares Quarterly Distribution on Common Units, Payable on August 14, 2023

Genesis Energy: Set To Rally With The Revival In Offshore Drilling

Genesis Energy: A Unique High-Yielder In The Midstream Sector