Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Overview
Manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 1/6 |
| Financial Health | 5/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
HOG Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 26 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Harley-Davidson, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$23.20 |
| 52 Week High | US$31.25 |
| 52 Week Low | US$17.09 |
| Beta | 1.28 |
| 1 Month Change | -4.41% |
| 3 Month Change | 15.37% |
| 1 Year Change | -6.30% |
| 3 Year Change | -29.27% |
| 5 Year Change | -51.97% |
| Change since IPO | 6,649.09% |
Recent News & Updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 28
HOG: Brand Refresh And Buybacks Will Confront Ongoing Demand And Dealer Concerns
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been trimmed by less than $0.05, as analysts reflect weaker revenue growth assumptions alongside slightly firmer profit margin and lower future P/E expectations, following a series of reduced Street targets and new Underweight ratings that highlight demand concerns and business uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Harley-Davidson clusters around concern for demand, dealer health and the longer term direction of the business, with several firms trimming price targets and leaning cautious on the shares.Seeking Alpha • Apr 16
Harley-Davidson: Losing Its Grip On The Road Ahead
Summary Harley-Davidson faces persistent volume declines, an aging customer base, and intensifying competition, with recent balance sheet improvements failing to address core structural challenges. HOG's 2026 outlook signals a reset year, with HDMC operating income expected between a $40M loss and a $10M profit, reflecting ongoing margin and demand pressures. Management's cost-cutting and inventory actions may steady operations, but demographic headwinds, tariffs, and weak pricing power limit prospects for real growth. I maintain a 'hold' rating, as valuation reflects some risks but lacks catalysts for upside; investors should remain cautious given limited visibility into a turnaround. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 13
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Counter Ongoing Demand And Dealer Concerns
Harley-Davidson’s analyst price target has been modestly adjusted to $22.18, as analysts factor in slightly less severe revenue contraction and profit margin pressure, along with a higher assumed future P/E and a wave of recent target cuts and Underweight ratings that highlight concerns around demand, dealer health, and overall business direction. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned cautious, with several firms trimming price targets and initiating with Underweight or Neutral ratings.Narrative Update • Mar 28
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Offset Ongoing Demand And Dealer Pressures
Harley-Davidson's analyst price targets have been reset lower, with reductions from firms including UBS, Morgan Stanley, Baird, DA Davidson, and Citi. Wells Fargo also initiated coverage with an Underweight rating and a $15 target, as analysts highlight ongoing demand softness, dealer pressures, and uncertainty around the direction of the business.Narrative Update • Mar 12
HOG: Product Refresh And Buybacks Will Support Future Brand And Margin Resilience
We are trimming our Harley-Davidson fair value estimate to $22.00 from $23.50, reflecting a series of lower Street price targets and analyst concerns about weak demand, dealer health, profit pressure, and higher implied future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Street research has tilted cautious on Harley-Davidson, with several firms reducing price targets and flagging execution and demand risks.Narrative Update • Feb 25
HOG: Product Refresh And Share Repurchases Will Support Future Margin Stability
The updated analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has been revised to $23.50 from $26.50. This change reflects recent cuts across the Street as analysts factor in a choppy consumer backdrop, softer profit expectations, and adjusted powersports estimates following Q4 results and industry events.Narrative Update • Feb 10
HOG: Inventory Actions And Lower Price Models Will Support Future Margin Stability
Narrative Update: Harley-Davidson Analysts have reduced their price targets on Harley-Davidson by up to $5, citing weaker retail conditions, margin pressure from clearing inventory, and an expected shift toward lower price point models. This is reflected in lower EPS estimates for coming periods.Analysis Article • Feb 09
Is Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Narrative Update • Jan 26
HOG: Inventory Cleanup And Dealer Health Efforts Will Support Future Margin Stability
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Harley-Davidson to $26.50 from $27.50, citing lower price targets and updated earnings expectations that reflect a softer retail backdrop, margin pressure from inventory clearance, and some product mix headwinds, even as recent commentary highlights efforts to improve dealer health and rebuild trust across the network. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Harley-Davidson point to a mixed setup, with price targets moving lower but with some constructive views on execution efforts and dealer health.Narrative Update • Jan 09
HOG: New Leadership Actions Will Drive Inventory Cleanup And Margin Stability
Analysts have trimmed Harley-Davidson's blended price target to a range of about US$21 to US$30, citing concerns about weaker retail demand, inventory-related margin pressure and product mix. These factors are partly offset by confidence in new CEO led inventory actions and efforts to improve dealer health.Narrative Update • Dec 18
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Inventory Clearance And Future Margin Recovery
The analyst price target for Harley-Davidson has edged down by $0.10 as analysts factor in weaker retail demand, ongoing inventory clearance related margin pressure, and mixed views on the pace of recovery despite recent management actions to improve dealer health. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a divided view on Harley-Davidson's outlook, with some emphasizing operational progress and others highlighting structural headwinds that could weigh on valuation and earnings power.Analysis Article • Dec 06
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.18
Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.18 per share on the 22nd of...Narrative Update • Dec 04
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Inventory Reset And Future Margin Stability
Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been trimmed modestly, with fair value estimates easing by about $0.70 per share as analysts factor in weaker retail trends, margin pressure tied to inventory clearance, and a slightly lower future earnings multiple, despite ongoing efforts to improve dealer health and rebuild network trust. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a widening divide between cautious and constructive views on Harley-Davidson, with valuation resets incorporating both near term execution risk and potential upside from operational changes under new leadership.Narrative Update • Nov 20
HOG: New Leadership Will Drive Dealer Health And Inventory Improvement
Harley-Davidson's analyst price target has been revised downward by $1 to $28. Analysts cite ongoing inventory challenges, cautious retail trends, and mixed outlooks on recent management changes as key factors influencing the adjustment.Analysis Article • Aug 29
A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) 26% Share Price Climb
Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month...Analysis Article • Jul 18
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Jun 16
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.3x Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) may be sending very bullish...Analysis Article • May 20
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • Apr 22
Why Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Could Be Worth Watching
While Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw significant share price...Analysis Article • Mar 18
There's No Escaping Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Muted Earnings
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s ( NYSE:HOG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7x might make it look like a strong buy...Seeking Alpha • Mar 04
Harley-Davidson: Secular Decline And Market Share Deterioration Weaken Outlook
Summary Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s sales have declined over the long term. On top of a secular decline in the US, the brand's market share has deteriorated in both the US and Europe. The company's LiveWire brand isn't gaining customers, generating significant losses and showing little promise for a turnaround. Dealers' overstocked inventories are exacerbating Harley-Davidson's weak short-term financial performance. Despite a P/E below 8, I don't believe HOG stock to be attractive. The company ultimately needs to stabilize its sales, which seems unlikely for now. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 20
Harley-Davidson's (NYSE:HOG) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's
Harley-Davidson, Inc. ( NYSE:HOG ) will increase its dividend on the 14th of March to $0.18, which is 4.3% higher than...Analysis Article • Feb 16
Some Investors May Be Worried About Harley-Davidson's (NYSE:HOG) Returns On Capital
To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications...Analysis Article • Jan 31
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • Dec 16
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) Earnings Are Not Doing Enough For Some Investors
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s ( NYSE:HOG ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.9x might make it look like a strong buy...Shareholder Returns
| HOG | US Auto | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -9.6% | -5.8% | -0.3% |
| 1Y | -6.3% | 19.9% | 26.7% |
Return vs Industry: HOG underperformed the US Auto industry which returned 19.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: HOG underperformed the US Market which returned 26.7% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| HOG volatility | |
|---|---|
| HOG Average Weekly Movement | 6.6% |
| Auto Industry Average Movement | 9.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: HOG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: HOG's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1903 | 5,500 | Artie Starrs | www.harley-davidson.com |
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| HOG fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$2.51b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$230.41m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$4.32b |
10.6x
P/E Ratio0.6x
P/S RatioIs HOG overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| HOG income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$4.32b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$2.77b |
| Gross Profit | US$1.25b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.02b |
| Earnings | US$230.41m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 2.19 |
| Gross Margin | 28.90% |
| Net Profit Margin | 5.34% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 69.2% |
How did HOG perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
3.2%
Current Dividend Yield37%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/21 21:48 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/21 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Coleman | Argus Research Company |
| Craig Kennison | Baird |
| Felicia Kantor Hendrix | Barclays |