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Aurora Innovation, Inc.NasdaqGS:AUR Stock Report

Market Cap US$14.3b
Share Price
US$7.08
US$9.79
27.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
1Y-7.9%
7D21.4%
Portfolio Value
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Aurora Innovation, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AUR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$14.3b

Aurora Innovation (AUR) Stock Overview

Engages in the self-driving technology business in the United States. More details

AUR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends0/6

Rewards

Trading at 81.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 63.63% per year

Risk Analysis

Does not have meaningful revenue ($4M)

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years


AUR Community Fair Values

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Analyst Price Targets

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Software opportunity
ZENA logo
ZenaTech
Fair Value from
US$6.8569.3% undervalued intrinsic discount

ZenaTech: A big bet on the rise of AI drones and drones-as-a-service

Key Takeaways ZenaTech is focusing its efforts into building AI drones, combining Drone as a Service, SaaS, and AI as its key revenue drivers. Previously building software for agriculture, ZenaTech has shifted rapidly toward drone services, now driving ~70% of revenue after recent acquisitions.

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Aurora Innovation, Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Aurora Innovation
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$7.14
52 Week HighUS$8.19
52 Week LowUS$3.60
Beta2.59
1 Month Change74.57%
3 Month Change66.82%
1 Year Change-7.87%
3 Year Change389.04%
5 Year Change-27.88%
Change since IPO-28.60%

Recent News & Updates

Seeking Alpha • Feb 13

Aurora Innovation: Barriers To Entry Are Fading

Summary Aurora Innovation is expanding its autonomous trucking operations, with significant growth planned for 2026 and beyond. Despite solid operational progress, AUR's share price remains weak. While this could represent a mispricing, I believe that the market is pricing an increased probability of Waymo dominating the market or the market becoming fragmented and economically unattractive. Investors can probably afford to sit on the sidelines in the short term, as Aurora's operations won't become material relative to its market capitalization until at least 2027. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Feb 13

Aurora Innovation: Barriers To Entry Are Fading

Summary Aurora Innovation is expanding its autonomous trucking operations, with significant growth planned for 2026 and beyond. Despite solid operational progress, AUR's share price remains weak. While this could represent a mispricing, I believe that the market is pricing an increased probability of Waymo dominating the market or the market becoming fragmented and economically unattractive. Investors can probably afford to sit on the sidelines in the short term, as Aurora's operations won't become material relative to its market capitalization until at least 2027. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jul 03

Aurora Innovation, Inc. (NASDAQ:AUR) Shares Could Be 49% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights Aurora Innovation's estimated fair value is US$10.06 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Aurora...
Analysis Article • May 11

We're Not Very Worried About Aurora Innovation's (NASDAQ:AUR) Cash Burn Rate

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, Aurora...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 22

Aurora Innovation: Turbulent Times Ahead

Summary Aurora Innovation's stock is under pressure due to the uncertainty created by tariffs and a looming commercialization deadline. Despite a broader market pullback, Aurora's stock has actually held up fairly well so far. A freight market recession could see customer investments in self-driving technology delayed, impacting both Aurora's growth and transition to profitability. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 24

Aurora Innovation: When Excitement Outpaces Fundamentals

Summary I love a good growth story, but Aurora Innovation, Inc.’s cash burn and dilution risk are dealbreakers. Even if they execute well, paying 240x next year’s sales just doesn’t make sense to me. The tech is impressive, but financials matter—and Aurora’s don’t inspire confidence. With too many unknowns and high expectations baked in, I’m choosing to stay on the sidelines for AUR stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 19

Aurora Innovation: Rating Downgrade As There Is Little Margin Of Safety

Summary I recommend downgrading Aurora Innovation stock to a hold due to the current stock price surge, leaving little margin of safety. AUR has shown consistent operational progress, with 88% autonomy performance and 99% autonomy readiness, nearing commercialization in 2Q25. Partnerships with DHL and NVIDIA validate AUR’s technology and reduce the capital burden, extending its financial runway into 2H26 with $1.2 billion in cash. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 20

Aurora Innovation: Technological Edge Will Lead To Strong Business Performance

Summary Aurora Innovation's pivot to autonomous trucking with a DaaS model is poised to capitalize on the trucking industry's driver shortage, offering significant cost savings and profitability. Strategic partnerships with Nvidia, Continental, Volvo, and others enhance Aurora's technological capabilities and provide a competitive moat, ensuring rapid scalability and market dominance. Aurora's phased deployment, beginning in April 2025, emphasizes safety and environmental sustainability, with plans to expand operations and improve energy efficiency by up to 32%. Given Aurora's strong strategic positioning, technological advancements, and imminent deployment, I rate Aurora Innovation a 'Buy' for its potential to generate solid revenue and profit. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 09

Aurora Innovation: Nvidia Partnership Isn't Material

Summary Aurora's partnership with NVIDIA has boosted sentiment but is unlikely to meaningfully alter the trajectory of its business. Based on recent commentary, commercialization appears to be dependent on the Aurora Driver's ability to handle edge cases and real-world data demonstrating this ability. The Thor SoC could boost performance, but Aurora has given no indication that inference compute power is a constraint. Aurora's market capitalization appears high given its lack of revenue and long path to profitability, particularly relative to other companies operating in the space. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 25

Aurora Innovation: Growing Hype As Commercialization Approaches

Summary Aurora Innovation's recent share price rebound has been driven by speculation regarding regulatory tailwinds, but the company's success hinges more on technology performance than regulations. While Aurora's business is progressing, the company is a long way away from demonstrating viability. Despite a significant cash raise in the third quarter, Aurora will likely need to raise cash again before it reaches breakeven. The size of the market means that there could be significant upside, but Aurora's large market capitalization, lack of revenue, and the long path to profitability make the stock risky. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 02

Aurora Innovation: Driving Toward The Future, But Proceed With Caution

Summary I focus on opportunities where the risk-reward is compelling, and for now, Aurora doesn’t fit the bill. I’d rather protect my capital and live to invest another day than get caught up in the hype. The autonomous driving space is exciting, but I need more concrete financials before committing. For now, I’m watching Aurora’s progress from a safe distance and waiting for clearer signs of profitability. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 15

Aurora Innovation: Valuation Limits Near-Term Upside

Summary Aurora Innovation is set to commercialize its autonomous trucking technology in the coming months, focusing initially on transportation between Dallas and Houston. Aurora is taking an asset-light approach, partnering with Continental and major OEMs to manufacture and install its hardware. Its self-driving solution will be monetized through a driver-as-a-service offering. While the company has a relatively large cash balance, cash burn is high, meaning a sizeable raise is likely at some point in the next few years. The trucking market is large, and autonomy potentially offers significant cost-savings, meaning Aurora could have a bright future. Aurora's high-valuation makes the stock unattractive from a risk-reward perspective, though, even if momentum continues to carry the stock higher in the near-term. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 30

Autonomous Trucking: Great Potential For Aurora Innovation But Risks Weigh

Summary Autonomous trucking, driven by LiDAR technology, offers significant potential due to its scalability, efficiency, and ability to address driver shortages and safety concerns. Aurora Innovation is the only publicly traded company in this sector, but it faces high costs and uncertain profitability, making it a risky investment. The market potential is substantial, with over 1.4 million trucks produced annually, but widespread adoption of autonomous trucking is still years away. I rate Aurora Innovation as a hold due to its potential and financial backing, but significant cash needs and commercialization uncertainties pose risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 29

Aurora Innovation: Lack Of Urgency

Summary Aurora Innovation, Inc. is focused on autonomous trucking, with plans to launch a driverless trucking service from Dallas to Houston by the end of 2024. The company is bleeding cash, with a large cash balance that is expected to be depleted by the end of 2025. Despite promising technology and strong partners, investors should avoid the stock due to rich valuation and potential need for future cash raises. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 12

Aurora Innovation: Appears Overvalued, Wait For Better Entry Point

Summary Aurora is developing self-driving technology integrated into cars for driverless capability. The company's share performance has been lackluster, currently trading at $3.2 per share. AUR's focus is on bringing its product to market quickly and finalizing contractual commitments from key customers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

Aurora Innovation: Attractive Upside If Commercialization Goes As Expected

Summary AUR focuses on developing autonomous solutions for the transportation industry, particularly in the AV trucking market. The company has made significant operational achievements, including logging over 1 million commercial miles and autonomously delivering 4,300 loads, positioning it well for commercialization. I believe there is a significant upside potential and give a buy recommendation to AUR. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 12

Aurora Innovation: It's A Challenge To See The Money

Summary Aurora Innovation's share price has surged over 100% in recent months following TuSimple's withdrawal from the US self-driving trucking market. AUR has made progress in its roadmap to commercial operations in 2023, but doubts remain about its ability to complete the roadmap on time. The prospects for profits in the medium term are challenging to assess, and the need for billions of dollars in funding adds to the uncertainty. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 02

Aurora Innovation soars 18% after CEO floats potential sale to Apple, Microsoft

Self-driving company Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR) jumped 18% after a report the company' CEO laid out potential scenarios for the company including a possible sale to Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Aurora (AUR) CEO Chris Urmson, who co-founded the self driving firm after running Google's (GOOGL) self-driving car project, was outlining potential scenarios for the company due to worsening market conditions, according to a Bloomberg report, which cited a company memo. The CEO also outlined taking the company private, spinning off or selling assets or a small capital raise, Bloomberg reported, citing a memo from early last month. Aurora (AUR) confirmed the memo to Bloomberg and said the company is looking at ways to keep competitive in a tough market.

Shareholder Returns

AURUS SoftwareUS Market
7D21.4%3.1%2.1%
1Y-7.9%-6.3%30.6%

Return vs Industry: AUR underperformed the US Software industry which returned -6.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AUR underperformed the US Market which returned 30.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AUR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AUR volatility
AUR Average Weekly Movement9.7%
Software Industry Average Movement9.7%
Market Average Movement7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: AUR has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.

Volatility Over Time: AUR's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
20171,900Chris Urmsonaurora.tech

Aurora Innovation, Inc. engages in the self-driving technology business in the United States. It focuses on developing Aurora Driver, a platform that brings a suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services together to adapt and interoperate various vehicle types and applications. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Aurora Innovation, Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do Aurora Innovation's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AUR fundamental statistics
Market capUS$14.25b
Earnings (TTM)-US$831.00m
Revenue (TTM)US$4.00m
3,499x
P/S Ratio
-16.8x
P/E Ratio

Is AUR overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
AUR income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$4.00m
Cost of RevenueUS$768.00m
Gross Profit-US$764.00m
Other ExpensesUS$67.00m
Earnings-US$831.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2026

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-0.42
Gross Margin-19,100.00%
Net Profit Margin-20,775.00%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did AUR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 11:05
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Aurora Innovation, Inc. is covered by 11 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
George GianarikasCanaccord Genuity
Andres Sheppard-SlingerCantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Christopher McNallyEvercore ISI