Otsuka Holdings (4578) Stock Overview
Engages in the pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses worldwide. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 4/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for 4578 from our risk checks.
4578 Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 7 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | JP¥10,515.00 |
| 52 Week High | JP¥11,910.00 |
| 52 Week Low | JP¥6,511.00 |
| Beta | -0.059 |
| 1 Month Change | -10.05% |
| 3 Month Change | -1.91% |
| 1 Year Change | 50.06% |
| 3 Year Change | 92.51% |
| 5 Year Change | 121.88% |
| Change since IPO | 391.36% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jun 15
4578: Share Buybacks And New Leukemia Filing Will Support Bullish Outlook
Analysts have nudged their price target on Otsuka Holdings higher to ¥12,708 from ¥12,083, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, profit margins, revenue growth and future P/E levels. What's in the News Otsuka Pharmaceutical submitted a supplemental application in Japan seeking approval to use Iclusig (ponatinib hydrochloride) as a first line treatment for adult patients with Philadelphia chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL), along with a new 10 mg tablet formulation, source: company product announcement.
Narrative Update • Jun 01
4578: Future Repricing Will Rely On Share Buybacks Supporting Margins
Analysts have adjusted the fair value price target for Otsuka Holdings from ¥15,445 to ¥15,700, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue, profit margins and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for May 7, 2026, to consider a change in a specified subsidiary, which could affect how parts of the group are organized and reported (Key Developments).Narrative Update • May 14
4578: Future Repricing Will Rely On Buybacks And Margin Expansion
Analysts have raised their price target on Otsuka Holdings to about ¥15,445 from roughly ¥14,480, citing updated assumptions around revenue, profit margins and future P/E as the main factors behind the revision. What's in the News The board plans to meet on May 7, 2026 to consider a change in a specified subsidiary, which could affect how parts of the group are structured and managed.Analysis Article • May 01
Results: Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4578 ) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers...Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 15
4578: Share Buybacks And New Leukemia Filing Will Support Bullish Outlook
Analysts have nudged their price target on Otsuka Holdings higher to ¥12,708 from ¥12,083, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, profit margins, revenue growth and future P/E levels. What's in the News Otsuka Pharmaceutical submitted a supplemental application in Japan seeking approval to use Iclusig (ponatinib hydrochloride) as a first line treatment for adult patients with Philadelphia chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL), along with a new 10 mg tablet formulation, source: company product announcement.Narrative Update • Jun 01
4578: Future Repricing Will Rely On Share Buybacks Supporting Margins
Analysts have adjusted the fair value price target for Otsuka Holdings from ¥15,445 to ¥15,700, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue, profit margins and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for May 7, 2026, to consider a change in a specified subsidiary, which could affect how parts of the group are organized and reported (Key Developments).Narrative Update • May 14
4578: Future Repricing Will Rely On Buybacks And Margin Expansion
Analysts have raised their price target on Otsuka Holdings to about ¥15,445 from roughly ¥14,480, citing updated assumptions around revenue, profit margins and future P/E as the main factors behind the revision. What's in the News The board plans to meet on May 7, 2026 to consider a change in a specified subsidiary, which could affect how parts of the group are structured and managed.Analysis Article • May 01
Results: Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4578 ) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers...Narrative Update • Apr 29
4578: Buybacks And Earnings Guidance Will Shape Balanced Forward Expectations
Analysts have lifted their price target on Otsuka Holdings from ¥11,650 to about ¥12,083, pointing to updated views on fair value that reflect revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What's in the News Otsuka completed a share repurchase tranche, buying 812,700 shares (about 0.15% of shares) for ¥8,435.22 million under the buyback announced on February 13, 2026 (company announcement).Narrative Update • Apr 14
4578: Morgan Stanley Upgrade And Buybacks Will Shape Balanced Forward Expectations
Analysts have raised their price target for Otsuka Holdings from ¥10,850 to ¥11,650, citing updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E that align with recent Street research, including the upgrade highlighted by Morgan Stanley. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher price target of ¥11,650 as more in line with updated expectations for revenue growth and profit margins that are reflected in recent Street work.Narrative Update • Mar 31
4578: Future Repricing Will Rely On Morgan Stanley Upgrade Momentum
Analysts have fine tuned their view on Otsuka Holdings, trimming the price target slightly from about ¥14,603 to around ¥14,480. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a modestly lower future P/E multiple following recent research commentary, including the Morgan Stanley upgrade rationale.Narrative Update • Mar 17
4578: Future Repricing Will Rely On Morgan Stanley Upgrade And Capital Returns
Analysts have raised their price target for Otsuka Holdings from ¥12,600 to about ¥14,603, reflecting updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E following recent research including the Morgan Stanley upgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent research has drawn attention to Otsuka Holdings as bullish analysts revisit their assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E.Narrative Update • Mar 03
4578: Morgan Stanley Upgrade And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Near-Term Outlook
Narrative Update Overview The analyst price target for Otsuka Holdings has moved from ¥9,868 to ¥10,850. Analysts cite updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E expectations following recent Street research, including the Morgan Stanley upgrade, as key drivers of the change.
Narrative Update • Feb 16
4578: Margin Optimism Around Recent Upgrade Will Ultimately Prove Overpriced
Analysts have maintained their ¥8,000 price target on Otsuka Holdings, citing updated assumptions for slower revenue growth, slightly higher profit margins, a modestly higher P/E multiple, and a small adjustment to the discount rate following recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around the ¥8,000 price target reflect a mixed tone, with some optimism around profitability and valuation, but also a clear set of risks that bearish analysts continue to highlight for readers to monitor.Narrative Update • Feb 02
4578: Future Repricing Will Rely On Improved Execution And Capital Returns
Narrative Update Analysts have lifted their price target for Otsuka Holdings from ¥11,000 to ¥12,600, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E that were reflected in recent Street research, including the latest upgrade from Morgan Stanley. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are leaning into a more constructive view on Otsuka Holdings, pointing to updated assumptions on growth, profitability and valuation that support a higher price target range.Analysis Article • Jan 24
These 4 Measures Indicate That Otsuka Holdings (TSE:4578) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Narrative Update • Jan 19
4578: IgA Nephropathy Drug Optimism Will Ultimately Prove Overpriced
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Otsuka Holdings to ¥8,000, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple that together reshape the risk reward profile for the stock. What's in the News Otsuka Pharmaceutical presented 12 month interim Phase 3 VISIONARY trial data for IgA nephropathy drug candidate sibeprenlimab at the 2025 American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week meeting in Houston, with summary results published online in The New England Journal of Medicine (company announcement).Analysis Article • Jan 09
Should You Be Adding Otsuka Holdings (TSE:4578) To Your Watchlist Today?
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Narrative Update • Jan 05
4578: Kidney Trial Progress And Priority Review Will Guide Balanced Near-Term Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for Otsuka Holdings to ¥9,868 from ¥9,579, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E that modestly increase their estimate of fair value. What's in the News Otsuka Pharmaceutical reported 12 month interim Phase 3 VISIONARY trial results for sibeprenlimab in adults with IgA nephropathy, including a 54.3% placebo adjusted reduction in proteinuria, a surrogate marker associated with delaying progression to kidney failure (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 15
4578: Rising Profit Margin Outlook Will Eventually Fail To Justify Lofty Share Price
Narrative Update Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Otsuka Holdings from ¥7,200 to ¥8,000, citing expectations for slightly improving revenue trends and a stronger profit margin outlook, partially offset by a modestly higher discount rate and a lower projected future P/E multiple. What's in the News Otsuka presented 12 month interim Phase 3 VISIONARY trial data for sibeprenlimab in IgA nephropathy at ASN Kidney Week 2025, showing a placebo adjusted 54.3% reduction in proteinuria, a key surrogate for slowing kidney function decline (company announcement).Narrative Update • Dec 01
4578: Revenue Outlook And Regulatory Milestones Will Shape Near-Term Performance
Analysts have raised their price target for Otsuka Holdings from ¥9,400 to ¥9,579, citing expectations for improved revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News Presentation of 12-month interim analysis results for sibeprenlimab, an investigational treatment for immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN), at the 2025 American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week and simultaneous publication in The New England Journal of Medicine (Key Developments) Sibeprenlimab demonstrated a 54.3% placebo-adjusted reduction in proteinuria at 12 months in the Phase 3 VISIONARY trial.Analysis Article • Nov 14
Otsuka Holdings (TSE:4578) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of ¥70.00
The board of Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4578 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 31st of March...Analysis Article • Oct 31
Otsuka Holdings (TSE:4578) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of ¥70.00
The board of Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4578 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥70.00 per share on...Analysis Article • Oct 28
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:4578) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 93% Above Its Share Price
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Otsuka Holdings fair value estimate is JP¥16,113 Otsuka...Analysis Article • Oct 08
These 4 Measures Indicate That Otsuka Holdings (TSE:4578) Is Using Debt Safely
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Sep 22
Otsuka Holdings (TSE:4578) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of ¥70.00
The board of Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4578 ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥70.00 per share on...Narrative Update • Sep 20
Pharmaceutical Expansion Will Unlock Global Healthcare Opportunities Despite Risks
Otsuka Holdings’ consensus valuation remains stable as a modest decline in revenue growth forecasts to 2.3% is offset by a slight improvement in net profit margin to 12.31%, resulting in a marginal increase in the Analyst Price Target from ¥9282 to ¥9400. What's in the News Increased interim and year-end dividends to JPY 70 per share each, up from JPY 60 per share previously.Narrative Update • Sep 05
Pharmaceutical Expansion Will Unlock Global Healthcare Opportunities Despite Risks
As there were no notable changes in Otsuka Holdings' consensus revenue growth (2.4% per annum) or net profit margin (11.89%), the analyst price target remained unchanged at ¥9,282. What's in the News Raised full-year dividend guidance to JPY 140 per share, up from JPY 120 previously, reflecting ongoing commitment to shareholder returns under the fourth midterm plan.Analysis Article • Sep 02
Otsuka Holdings' (TSE:4578) Dividend Will Be ¥70.00
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4578 ) will pay a dividend of ¥70.00 on the 31st of March. Despite this raise, the...Analysis Article • Aug 03
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Recorded A 17% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
Investors in Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4578 ) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.6% to close at JP¥7,458...Analysis Article • Jul 14
Does Otsuka Holdings (TSE:4578) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...
New Narrative • Feb 23
New Product Launches And International Expansion May Offset Risks From JYNARQUE Exclusivity Loss
Expanding products in pharma and nutraceutical sectors aims to boost revenue, while aggressive international growth improves margins via economies of scale.Shareholder Returns
| 4578 | JP Pharmaceuticals | JP Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 3.1% | 0.7% | 4.7% |
| 1Y | 50.1% | 11.3% | 46.9% |
Return vs Industry: 4578 exceeded the JP Pharmaceuticals industry which returned 11.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: 4578 exceeded the JP Market which returned 46.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| 4578 volatility | |
|---|---|
| 4578 Average Weekly Movement | 4.3% |
| Pharmaceuticals Industry Average Movement | 5.5% |
| Market Average Movement | 4.6% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in JP Market | 9.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in JP Market | 2.3% |
Stable Share Price: 4578 has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the JP market.
Volatility Over Time: 4578's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1921 | 37,758 | Makoto Inoue | www.otsuka.com |
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses worldwide. It develops pharmaceutical products in the fields of psychiatry, neurology, oncology, cardiovascular and renal system, autoimmune space digestive system, ophthalmology, and diagnostics, as well as intravenous solutions and medical devices. It also provides clinical testing, medical equipment and tools, food products, cosmetics, functional food products, chemical products, soft drinks, beverages, analytical and measurement equipment, nutritional products, vehicle headlight testers, synthetic resin molded products, paper products, quasi-drugs, household products, and packaging materials and electronic parts.
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. Fundamentals Summary
| 4578 fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | JP¥5.54t |
| Earnings (TTM) | JP¥376.50b |
| Revenue (TTM) | JP¥2.52t |
14.7x
P/E Ratio2.2x
P/S RatioIs 4578 overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| 4578 income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | JP¥2.52t |
| Cost of Revenue | JP¥716.56b |
| Gross Profit | JP¥1.80t |
| Other Expenses | JP¥1.42t |
| Earnings | JP¥376.50b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
Jul 31, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 715.07 |
| Gross Margin | 71.52% |
| Net Profit Margin | 14.96% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 3.0% |
How did 4578 perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
1.3%
Current Dividend Yield15%
Payout RatioDoes 4578 pay a reliable dividends?
See 4578 dividend history and benchmarks| Otsuka Holdings dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Jun 29 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Sep 01 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 7 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 71 days |
Does 4578 pay a reliable dividends?
See 4578 dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/20 10:27 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/19 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. is covered by 19 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Atsushi Seki | Barclays |
| Miki Sogi | Bernstein |
| Koichi Mamegano | BofA Global Research |