Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd.

TSE:4578 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥5.8t

Otsuka Holdings Valuation

Is 4578 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of 4578 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

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Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: 4578 (¥11020) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (¥11058.59)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 4578 is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4578?

Key metric: As 4578 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4578. This is calculated by dividing 4578's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4578's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16x
EarningsJP¥363.15b
Market CapJP¥5.82t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4578's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4578 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.2x
4568 Daiichi Sankyo Company
17.6x14.13%JP¥5.4t
4503 Astellas Pharma
13.2x-13.18%JP¥4.2t
4502 Takeda Pharmaceutical
79.2x23.25%JP¥8.9t
4507 Shionogi
14.9x2.17%JP¥2.9t
4578 Otsuka Holdings
16x1.77%JP¥5.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4578 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x) compared to the peer average (31.2x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4578's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
4578 16.0xIndustry Avg. 16.0xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4578 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x) compared to the JP Pharmaceuticals industry average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4578's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4578 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16x
Fair PE Ratio28x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4578 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4578 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥11,020.00
JP¥11,291.67
+2.47%
14.66%JP¥15,100.00JP¥9,000.00n/a12
Mar ’27JP¥10,710.00
JP¥10,850.00
+1.31%
10.60%JP¥13,200.00JP¥9,000.00n/a12
Feb ’27JP¥9,241.00
JP¥10,212.50
+10.51%
12.75%JP¥12,600.00JP¥8,000.00n/a12
Jan ’27JP¥8,873.00
JP¥9,731.82
+9.68%
12.23%JP¥11,250.00JP¥8,000.00n/a11
Dec ’26JP¥8,686.00
JP¥9,579.17
+10.28%
11.77%JP¥11,000.00JP¥8,000.00n/a12
Nov ’26JP¥8,374.00
JP¥9,379.17
+12.00%
12.86%JP¥11,000.00JP¥7,200.00n/a12
Oct ’26JP¥8,269.00
JP¥9,375.00
+13.38%
12.85%JP¥11,000.00JP¥7,200.00n/a12
Sep ’26JP¥7,934.00
JP¥9,281.82
+16.99%
12.75%JP¥11,000.00JP¥7,200.00n/a11
Aug ’26JP¥7,458.00
JP¥9,154.55
+22.75%
14.14%JP¥11,000.00JP¥7,200.00n/a11
Jul ’26JP¥6,830.00
JP¥9,025.00
+32.14%
13.71%JP¥10,700.00JP¥7,200.00n/a12
Jun ’26JP¥7,350.00
JP¥9,008.33
+22.56%
13.64%JP¥10,700.00JP¥7,200.00n/a12
May ’26JP¥7,315.00
JP¥9,050.00
+23.72%
12.98%JP¥10,700.00JP¥7,500.00n/a12
Apr ’26JP¥7,917.00
JP¥9,259.09
+16.95%
13.38%JP¥10,700.00JP¥7,500.00n/a11
Mar ’26JP¥7,325.00
JP¥9,322.73
+27.27%
14.94%JP¥11,800.00JP¥7,500.00JP¥10,710.0011
Feb ’26JP¥8,136.00
JP¥9,354.55
+14.98%
16.07%JP¥11,800.00JP¥6,100.00JP¥9,241.0011
Jan ’26JP¥8,600.00
JP¥9,177.27
+6.71%
16.91%JP¥10,800.00JP¥6,100.00JP¥8,873.0011
Dec ’25JP¥8,685.00
JP¥9,177.27
+5.67%
16.91%JP¥10,800.00JP¥6,100.00JP¥8,686.0011
Nov ’25JP¥9,207.00
JP¥8,831.82
-4.07%
19.02%JP¥10,800.00JP¥6,100.00JP¥8,374.0011
Oct ’25JP¥8,256.00
JP¥8,450.00
+2.35%
16.00%JP¥10,000.00JP¥6,100.00JP¥8,269.0011
Sep ’25JP¥8,554.00
JP¥7,913.64
-7.49%
17.92%JP¥9,800.00JP¥6,100.00JP¥7,934.0011
Aug ’25JP¥7,488.00
JP¥7,022.73
-6.21%
16.82%JP¥8,700.00JP¥5,000.00JP¥7,458.0011
Jul ’25JP¥6,884.00
JP¥6,822.73
-0.89%
14.74%JP¥8,500.00JP¥5,000.00JP¥6,830.0011
Jun ’25JP¥6,474.00
JP¥6,472.73
-0.02%
16.80%JP¥8,500.00JP¥4,800.00JP¥7,350.0011
May ’25JP¥6,561.00
JP¥6,136.36
-6.47%
16.11%JP¥8,000.00JP¥4,800.00JP¥7,315.0011
Apr ’25JP¥6,333.00
JP¥5,927.27
-6.41%
15.16%JP¥7,400.00JP¥4,800.00JP¥7,917.0011
Mar ’25JP¥6,054.00
JP¥5,709.09
-5.70%
14.20%JP¥7,400.00JP¥4,700.00JP¥7,325.0011
JP¥11.29k
Fair Value
2.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/12 02:10
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/12 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. is covered by 19 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Atsushi SekiBarclays
Miki SogiBernstein
Koichi MameganoBofA Global Research