Adecoagro (AGRO) Stock Overview
Engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
+ 1 more risk
AGRO Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 24 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$18.28
FV
44.4% undervalued intrinsic discount15.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
156
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Adecoagro S.A. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$10.16 |
| 52 Week High | US$15.89 |
| 52 Week Low | US$6.89 |
| Beta | -0.065 |
| 1 Month Change | 6.39% |
| 3 Month Change | -26.91% |
| 1 Year Change | 10.56% |
| 3 Year Change | -6.19% |
| 5 Year Change | 6.28% |
| Change since IPO | -15.33% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jul 09
AGRO: Cautious Downgrade And Rich P/E Will Restrain Future Upside
Analysts have revised their price target on Adecoagro to $10.50, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, margins, and a higher future P/E multiple, even as some recent research has turned more cautious on valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Adecoagro has leaned more cautious, with bearish analysts highlighting valuation concerns even as the new US$10.50 price target reflects updated assumptions on growth and margins.Seeking Alpha • Jul 08
Adecoagro: The Harvest Is Over, Now It's Time For Patience (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Adecoagro is upgraded to Hold as valuation aligns with fair risk-reward after a 30% decline. Profertil acquisition significantly boosts AGRO's EBITDA and increases exposure to fertilizer, but also elevates leverage and commodity volatility. Current macro risks - especially related to oil, gas, and interest rates - could pressure AGRO's earnings and valuation further. I estimate AGRO's intrinsic value at $9.23 per share, closely matching the current market price; patience is warranted before adding. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 25
AGRO: Dividend Visibility And Cash Generation Will Shape Future Upside Potential
The analyst price target for Adecoagro has been adjusted from $16.20 to $16.00, as analysts incorporate recent downgrades along with updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Adecoagro shows a mix of views, with some firms turning more cautious on valuation while others see room for upside based on execution and earnings power.
New Narrative • Jun 21
Why a "2026 Super El Nino" is the Ultimate Hedge for Tech-Heavy Portfolios
Our coverage traditionally zeroes in on US growth equities, semiconductor margins, space ships, bio engineering and artificial intelligence infrastructure. For investors accustomed to evaluating hyperscaler CapEx and recurring SaaS revenue, pivoting to a South American agribusiness might seem counterintuitive.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 09
AGRO: Cautious Downgrade And Rich P/E Will Restrain Future Upside
Analysts have revised their price target on Adecoagro to $10.50, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, margins, and a higher future P/E multiple, even as some recent research has turned more cautious on valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Adecoagro has leaned more cautious, with bearish analysts highlighting valuation concerns even as the new US$10.50 price target reflects updated assumptions on growth and margins.Seeking Alpha • Jul 08
Adecoagro: The Harvest Is Over, Now It's Time For Patience (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Adecoagro is upgraded to Hold as valuation aligns with fair risk-reward after a 30% decline. Profertil acquisition significantly boosts AGRO's EBITDA and increases exposure to fertilizer, but also elevates leverage and commodity volatility. Current macro risks - especially related to oil, gas, and interest rates - could pressure AGRO's earnings and valuation further. I estimate AGRO's intrinsic value at $9.23 per share, closely matching the current market price; patience is warranted before adding. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jun 25
AGRO: Dividend Visibility And Cash Generation Will Shape Future Upside Potential
The analyst price target for Adecoagro has been adjusted from $16.20 to $16.00, as analysts incorporate recent downgrades along with updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Adecoagro shows a mix of views, with some firms turning more cautious on valuation while others see room for upside based on execution and earnings power.New Narrative • Jun 21
Why a "2026 Super El Nino" is the Ultimate Hedge for Tech-Heavy Portfolios
Our coverage traditionally zeroes in on US growth equities, semiconductor margins, space ships, bio engineering and artificial intelligence infrastructure. For investors accustomed to evaluating hyperscaler CapEx and recurring SaaS revenue, pivoting to a South American agribusiness might seem counterintuitive.Narrative Update • Jun 11
AGRO: Profertil Earnings Hopes And Urea Prices Will Cap Future Returns
Analysts have modestly raised their consolidated price target for Adecoagro to about $12 per share, as updated models factor in slightly higher projected revenue growth, profit margins, and long term P/E assumptions supported by recent research highlighting the impact of Profertil and current urea pricing on future earnings power. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed picture for Adecoagro, with some firms upgrading ratings and lifting price targets while others are trimming their stance and turning more cautious.Narrative Update • May 28
AGRO: Profertil And Urea Reliance Will Pressure Future Share Returns
Adecoagro's updated fair value estimate has moved from $7.13 to $7.92 as analysts weigh mixed rating changes alongside higher long term profit margin and P/E assumptions tied to the Profertil acquisition and urea pricing. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Adecoagro reflects a mixed setup, with some analysts highlighting upside linked to the Profertil acquisition and urea pricing, while others are turning more cautious as the share price moves closer to their intrinsic value assumptions.Narrative Update • May 13
AGRO: Profertil Dependence And Urea Price Swings Will Restrain Future Returns
Narrative Update: Adecoagro Analyst Price Target Shift Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Adecoagro from $7.00 to about $7.13, citing revised assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and the price-to-earnings ratio. Recent rating changes and price target adjustments indicate differing views on how Profertil, urea pricing and valuation considerations affect the stock.
Narrative Update • Apr 22
AGRO: Profertil Deal And Urea Pricing Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook
Adecoagro's analyst fair value estimate has moved from $10.25 to about $12.91, as analysts factor in higher modeled revenue growth alongside mixed margin and future P/E assumptions following recent rating changes and price target updates linked to Profertil and urea pricing. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a split view on Adecoagro, with some analysts turning more constructive following the Profertil acquisition and urea pricing trends, while others have shifted to a more cautious stance after the share price move and changes in valuation assumptions.Narrative Update • Apr 08
AGRO: Profertil Exposure And Capital Raise Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Profile
The analyst fair value estimate for Adecoagro has shifted from $17.00 to $16.20. This reflects updated views on revenue growth, profitability, and P/E expectations following recent research that highlights both the potential benefits of the Profertil acquisition and urea pricing, as well as more cautious stances from some firms.Narrative Update • Mar 24
AGRO: Profertil Reliance And Urea Exposure Will Pressure Future Returns
Narrative Update: Adecoagro Analyst Price Target Shift Analysts have lifted Adecoagro's average price target by about $4, moving from roughly $9 to a range around $13, citing higher urea prices, the expected contribution from the Profertil acquisition, and updated EBITDA and free cash flow projections for 2026 and 2027. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Adecoagro centers on the Profertil acquisition, urea pricing, and how these factors could influence earnings and cash generation over the next few years.Narrative Update • Mar 09
AGRO: Profertil Urea Price And Integration Risks Will Cap Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target range for Adecoagro to between $9 and $13, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue trends, profitability and P/E. This is supported by recent research highlighting potential upside from sugar prices and the Profertil acquisition, along with balance sheet support from the December $308m capital increase.Narrative Update • Feb 23
AGRO: Profertil Commodity Risks Will Limit Upside After Capital Raise
Analysts have raised their price targets on Adecoagro, with Citi initiating coverage at $13 and BofA lifting its target to $9 from $7.50, citing an expectation of long term support from sugar prices as well as additional earnings contribution and diversification potential from the Profertil acquisition. Analyst Commentary Recent coverage has highlighted both the potential upside tied to sugar pricing and the added earnings contribution that could come from the Profertil acquisition.Narrative Update • Feb 08
AGRO: Capital Raise And Profertil Risk Will Pressure Shares Forward
Adecoagro's analyst price target has moved from $7.50 to $9.00. Analysts point to the December $308m capital increase and the Profertil acquisition as key reasons, while also flagging urea price exposure as an important risk to watch.Analysis Article • Feb 05
Growth Investors: Industry Analysts Just Upgraded Their Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO) Revenue Forecasts By 11%
Celebrations may be in order for Adecoagro S.A. ( NYSE:AGRO ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant...Narrative Update • Jan 24
AGRO: Capital Raise And Profertil Deal Will Reshape Future Earnings Mix
Analysts have nudged their price targets higher on Adecoagro, with one moving from US$7.50 to US$9. They point to the recent US$308m capital increase and the Profertil acquisition as key reasons for the updated view, while keeping underlying fair value assumptions broadly unchanged.Narrative Update • Jan 10
AGRO: Capital Raise And Profertil Deal Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have nudged their price target for Adecoagro slightly lower, from about US$10.50 to around US$10.25, citing updated assumptions on growth, profitability and valuation following the recent capital increase and Profertil acquisition. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight that the US$308M capital increase, combined with the Profertil acquisition, gives Adecoagro more financial flexibility to pursue growth projects and support its revised valuation framework.Narrative Update • Dec 25
AGRO: Follow On Equity Offering Will Pressure Shares Despite Margin Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Adecoagro by roughly 18 percent, citing a slightly higher perceived risk profile, which is offset only partially by improved margin expectations and a less severe revenue decline outlook. What's in the News Adecoagro completed a follow on equity offering totaling approximately $300 million, issuing over 41 million common shares at around $7.25 per share (Key Developments) The company previously filed for this $300 million follow on equity offering, signaling a planned capital raise to support its strategic and financial objectives (Key Developments) A lock up agreement covering common shares held by directors, executives, certain affiliates, and significant shareholders will be in effect from December 11, 2025 to March 12, 2026, limiting secondary share sales during that period (Key Developments) Adecoagro has effectively completed a long running share repurchase program launched in 2013, having bought back over 35 million shares for roughly $320.66 million in total (Key Developments) A special shareholders meeting is scheduled for October 29, 2025 in Luxembourg to consider amending, renewing, and increasing the company’s authorized share capital to three billion US Dollars (Key Developments) Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has fallen significantly, from 8.5 to 7.0 per share, implying a lower intrinsic valuation baseline.Narrative Update • Dec 11
AGRO: Share Expansion And Strong Margins Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Adecoagro slightly, from about $10.70 to $10.50, citing a modestly lower long term growth outlook that is partially offset by improved margin expectations and a slightly reduced discount rate. What's in the News Adecoagro has filed a follow on equity offering of up to $300 million in common shares, signaling plans to raise fresh capital for growth or balance sheet initiatives (regulatory filing) The company reported that from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, it repurchased zero additional shares, while confirming completion of its long running buyback totaling 35,184,001 shares or 31.09 percent for $320.66 million (company disclosure) A special and extraordinary shareholders meeting is scheduled for October 29, 2025 in Luxembourg to consider amending, renewing and increasing Adecoagro's authorized share capital to three billion US dollars (meeting notice) Valuation Changes The fair value estimate has edged down slightly to $10.50 from $10.70, reflecting a modestly lower intrinsic valuation.Narrative Update • Nov 27
AGRO: Strong Buyback Will Lay Groundwork for Resilient Future Performance
Adecoagro's analyst price target was reduced slightly from $10.80 to $10.70, reflecting cautious sentiment among analysts following recent adjustments to revenue growth forecasts and ongoing margin concerns. Analyst Commentary Following recent adjustments to price targets, analysts have provided mixed commentary highlighting both potential strengths and ongoing challenges for Adecoagro.Analysis Article • Nov 20
Earnings Troubles May Signal Larger Issues for Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO) Shareholders
Last week's earnings announcement from Adecoagro S.A. ( NYSE:AGRO ) was disappointing to investors, with a sluggish...Analysis Article • Nov 15
Adecoagro S.A. Recorded A 21% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models
Adecoagro S.A. ( NYSE:AGRO ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.6% to...Narrative Update • Nov 07
AGRO: Diversified Operations Will Drive Resilience Despite Margin Pressures
Analysts have lowered their price target for Adecoagro to $8.50 from $9.90. They cite slightly higher discount rates and weaker profit margin expectations.Narrative Update • Oct 23
Market Shifts And Risk Premiums Will Influence Earnings Outlook And Value Preservation
Analysts have revised Adecoagro’s price target downward to $8.50 from $9.90. They cite updated market assessments and recent firm performance as influencing factors.Narrative Update • Oct 09
Precision Agriculture And Renewable Fuels Will Shape Future Markets
Adecoagro's analyst price targets have been revised downward by roughly $1. Analysts cite weaker sugarcane crop prospects as well as expectations for a soft second quarter.Analysis Article • Oct 02
Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Analysis Article • Aug 02
Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks
Adecoagro S.A.'s ( NYSE:AGRO ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14x might make it look like a buy right now...Analysis Article • May 19
Adecoagro's (NYSE:AGRO) Weak Earnings May Only Reveal A Part Of The Whole Picture
Adecoagro S.A.'s ( NYSE:AGRO ) recent weak earnings report didn't cause a big stock movement. Our analysis suggests...Analysis Article • May 07
Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Seeking Alpha • Mar 07
Adecoagro: Good Operations Squeezed By Uncontrollable Commodity And Weather Issues
Summary A tender offer from Tether Investments at $12.41 per share has broken a recent downtrend in the share price, but it remains to be seen how Adecoagro's board will respond. The core SEE operations have seen increased pressure from weaker sugar prices, and while ethanol demand has picked up, pricing is still comparatively weak. Adecoagro has been expanding its farming operations, and could be poised to benefit from both lower export taxes in Argentina and increased trade frictions between the U.S. and the world. Adecoagro's shares look undervalued below $13, but the vagaries of commodity markets mean this is more of a trading vehicle than a buy-and-hold investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 19
Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO)?
Adecoagro S.A. ( NYSE:AGRO ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a decent share price growth of 18% on...Analysis Article • Jan 23
The Return Trends At Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO) Look Promising
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Seeking Alpha • Dec 03
Adecoagro Waits For A Better 2024/25 Harvest. Still A Hold
Summary Adecoagro's 3Q24 results met expectations for a low-seasonal quarter, with challenges in margins due to a bear market in agricultural commodities. The company's market valuation remains stable, and I maintain a Hold rating based on its low earnings yield relative to the market cap. The sugar, ethanol, and energy segment is a focal point, showing expansion despite margin challenges, with a positive outlook for future returns. AGRO provided valuable insights on land prices and plans for the 2024/25 crop season, reinforcing the Hold recommendation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 07
Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.174
Adecoagro S.A. ( NYSE:AGRO ) has announced that it will be increasing its periodic dividend on the 27th of November to...Seeking Alpha • Sep 17
Adecoagro S.A.: A Higher Share Price May Be On The Horizon Shortly
Summary Adecoagro S.A. shows strong free cash flow, converting 117% of net profits, making it an attractive investment despite recent profitability challenges. The company operates in diverse sectors across Uruguay, Argentina, and Brazil, with promising growth in the Farming segment and potential in Sugar, Ethanol & Energy. Shares have rallied post-Q2 earnings, and a confirmed technical breakout above $12 to $12.50 on strong volume would signal a firm 'Buy'. Adecoagro's valuation is compelling, with cheap sales and assets multiples, suggesting significant potential for earnings and cash flow growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 15
Sugarcane Expansion And Ethanol Hopes Brighten Future Despite Profit Margin Squeeze
Expansion and active management of sugarcane and ethanol operations could lead to increased production volumes and better margins.Analysis Article • Aug 26
Benign Growth For Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO) Underpins Its Share Price
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may...Seeking Alpha • Aug 25
Adecoagro's Q2 2024 Still Challenged By Falling Prices, The Stock Is Not An Opportunity
Summary Adecoagro's 2Q24 results were flat due to improved production in sugar and farming businesses being offset by collapsing prices. The company's share price has remained flat with a Hold rating, as the stock already discounts positive commodity market conditions. Adecoagro's valuation remains unattractive, with earnings yield of 7.6% and potential downward revision in land prices affecting profitability. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 10
Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Key Insights Adecoagro's estimated fair value is US$18.81 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Adecoagro is...Analysis Article • May 23
We Think You Should Be Aware Of Some Concerning Factors In Adecoagro's (NYSE:AGRO) Earnings
Adecoagro S.A.'s ( NYSE:AGRO ) stock didn't jump after it announced some healthy earnings. Our analysis showed that...Analysis Article • May 10
Adecoagro (NYSE:AGRO) Is Experiencing Growth In Returns On Capital
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Shareholder Returns
| AGRO | US Food | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -5.7% | 2.5% | -2.6% |
| 1Y | 10.6% | -1.1% | 14.3% |
Return vs Industry: AGRO exceeded the US Food industry which returned -1.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: AGRO underperformed the US Market which returned 14.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| AGRO volatility | |
|---|---|
| AGRO Average Weekly Movement | 7.6% |
| Food Industry Average Movement | 5.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: AGRO has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: AGRO's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | n/a | Mariano Bosch | www.adecoagro.com |
Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products.
Adecoagro S.A. Fundamentals Summary
| AGRO fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.40b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$13.71m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.50b |
106.9x
P/E Ratio1.0x
P/S RatioIs AGRO overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| AGRO income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$1.50b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$1.18b |
| Gross Profit | US$318.66m |
| Other Expenses | US$304.95m |
| Earnings | US$13.71m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
Aug 13, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.095 |
| Gross Margin | 21.23% |
| Net Profit Margin | 0.91% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 97.9% |
How did AGRO perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
3.4%
Current Dividend Yield150%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/30 23:17 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/30 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Adecoagro S.A. is covered by 12 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Isabella Simonato | BofA Global Research |
| Gabriel Vaz de Lima | Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários |
| Thiago Callegari Duarte | BTG Pactual |