Reported Earnings • May 20
Full year 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥107 (up from JP¥103 in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥33.2b (up 11% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥1.53b (up 3.7% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 4.6% (down from 4.9% in FY 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 14%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.3% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.8% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 1% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 19
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to JP¥761, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Chemicals industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 7.0% over the past three years. Announcement • May 15
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2026 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 29, 2026. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥18.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2026. Payment date: 04 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.3%). New Risk • Feb 03
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.0% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥15.5b market cap, or US$99.5m). Reported Earnings • Jan 29
Third quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥18.77 (vs JP¥31.27 in 3Q 2025) Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥18.77 (down from JP¥31.27 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥7.69b (up 5.0% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥269.0m (down 40% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 3.5% (down from 6.1% in 3Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 12% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 29
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 26% After last week's 26% share price decline to JP¥1,105, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Chemicals industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 52% over the past three years. New Risk • Jan 28
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.2% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.2% average weekly change). Declared Dividend • Dec 02
First half dividend of JP¥18.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥18.00. Ex-date: 30th March 2026 Payment date: 4th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (30% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (19% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 20% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 50% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Oct 30
Second quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥34.76 (vs JP¥16.19 in 2Q 2025) Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥34.76 (up from JP¥16.19 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥9.14b (up 22% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥498.0m (up 115% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 5.5% (up from 3.1% in 2Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 44% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥18.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 02 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 27% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.6%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). In line with average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • Jul 31
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: JP¥38.66 (vs JP¥28.34 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥38.66 (up from JP¥28.34 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥8.56b (up 13% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥554.0m (up 37% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 6.5% (up from 5.3% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 22% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 19% per year. Declared Dividend • Jul 09
Final dividend of JP¥18.00 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of JP¥18.00. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 2nd December 2025 Dividend yield will be 3.2%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (20% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (17% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 20% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 63% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Jun 25
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥103 (up from JP¥57.23 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥29.9b (up 4.9% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥1.48b (up 80% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.9% (up from 2.9% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 10% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 19
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥32.6b to JP¥36.0b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥119 to JP¥124 per share. Net income forecast to grow 20% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,700 to JP¥1,800. Share price fell 2.2% to JP¥1,166 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 13
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥103 (up from JP¥57.23 in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥29.9b (up 4.9% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥1.48b (up 80% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.9% (up from 2.9% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 18%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 4% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Apr 07
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.2% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.2% average weekly change). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥12.7b market cap, or US$86.7m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 25% After last week's 25% share price decline to JP¥885, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 10x in the Chemicals industry in Japan. Total loss to shareholders of 7.6% over the past three years. New Risk • Apr 05
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: JP¥14.6b (US$99.5m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.2% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥14.6b market cap, or US$99.5m). Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥18.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2025. Payment date: 04 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 20% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.6%). Announcement • Feb 28
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on May 12, 2025 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on May 12, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Feb 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from JP¥76.80 to JP¥87.20. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥29.3b. Net income forecast to grow 24% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥1,400 to JP¥1,700. Share price rose 10% to JP¥1,098 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Feb 01
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥31.27 (vs JP¥11.73 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥31.27 (up from JP¥11.73 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥7.32b (up 9.6% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥448.0m (up 167% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 6.1% (up from 2.5% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 28% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 7% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Jan 04
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.3% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.3% average weekly change). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥15.0b market cap, or US$95.1m). Declared Dividend • Dec 03
First half dividend increased to JP¥12.00 Dividend of JP¥12.00 is 33% higher than last year. Ex-date: 28th March 2025 Payment date: 4th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.0%, which is lower than the industry average of 2.2%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (13% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (13% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 12% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 111% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Oct 31
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Jan 31, 2025 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Jan 31, 2025 Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥16.19 (vs JP¥30.15 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥16.19 (down from JP¥30.15 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥7.46b (up 1.1% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥232.0m (down 46% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.1% (down from 5.8% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 47% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 19% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 04 December 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 22% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%). Announcement • Aug 21
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Oct 29, 2024 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results on Oct 29, 2024 New Risk • Aug 05
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.0% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.0% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥9.86b market cap, or US$69.2m). Reported Earnings • Aug 02
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: JP¥28.34 (vs JP¥1.88 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥28.34 (up from JP¥1.88 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥7.60b (up 2.3% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥406.0m (up JP¥379.0m from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.3% (up from 0.4% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 29% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Declared Dividend • Jul 11
Final dividend of JP¥9.00 announced Dividend of JP¥9.00 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 4th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.2%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (45% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (10% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 12% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 94% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Jun 28
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥57.23 (up from JP¥21.64 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥28.5b (down 5.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥820.0m (up 165% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.9% (up from 1.0% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 32 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Jun 02
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Q1, 2025 Results on Jul 31, 2024 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on Jul 31, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • May 22
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 17%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 revenue forecast fell from JP¥32.5b to JP¥29.3b. EPS estimate rose from JP¥59.30 to JP¥69.10. Net income forecast to grow 21% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan. Consensus price target up from JP¥900 to JP¥1,100. Share price was steady at JP¥779 over the past week. Reported Earnings • May 19
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: JP¥57.23 (up from JP¥21.64 in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥28.5b (down 5.4% from FY 2023). Net income: JP¥820.0m (up 165% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.9% (up from 1.0% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 34 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • May 16
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2024 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2024. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 March 2024. Payment date: 03 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 45% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.1%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.2%). In line with average of industry peers (2.1%). Announcement • Mar 02
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on May 14, 2024 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on May 14, 2024 Board Change • Feb 02
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 4 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 6 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Yuji Fujisaku was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Feb 02
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited Revises Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2024 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited revised consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. For the period, the company now expects sales revenue of JPY 28,500 million, Operating income of JPY 850 million, Net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY 650 million and net income per share of JPY 45.36 compared previously forecasted revenue of JPY 28,000 million, Operating income of JPY 700 million, Net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY 400 million and net income per share of JPY 27.90. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 07
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 12%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from JP¥32.4b to JP¥28.5b. EPS estimate increased from JP¥34.90 to JP¥45.40 per share. Net income forecast to grow 30% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥900 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥739 over the past week. Announcement • Nov 27
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Jan 31, 2024 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Jan 31, 2024 Reported Earnings • Nov 02
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥30.15 (vs JP¥4.19 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥30.15 (up from JP¥4.19 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥7.39b (up 3.7% from 2Q 2023). Net income: JP¥432.0m (up JP¥372.0m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 5.8% (up from 0.8% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.6% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 35% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share at 2.5% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 04 December 2023. The company is paying out more than 100% of its profits and is cash flow negative. Trailing yield: 2.5%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.3%). In line with average of industry peers (2.5%). Announcement • Aug 19
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Oct 31, 2023 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Oct 31, 2023 Reported Earnings • Aug 01
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: JP¥1.88 (vs JP¥9.14 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: JP¥1.88 (down from JP¥9.14 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥7.43b (down 8.8% from 1Q 2023). Net income: JP¥27.0m (down 79% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.4% (down from 1.6% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 47% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 34% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Jul 27
New major risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 125% The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 2.4% This is considered a major risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings and cash flows are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings or cash flows stagnate or fall, then there may not be enough to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 125% Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.0% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (JP¥10.8b market cap, or US$77.3m). Reported Earnings • Jun 28
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥21.64 (down from JP¥144 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥30.2b (down 6.8% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥310.0m (down 85% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.0% (down from 6.4% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 3.7%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.9% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 32% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 32% per year. Announcement • May 19
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Jul 31, 2023 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on Jul 31, 2023 Reported Earnings • May 16
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2023 results: EPS: JP¥21.64 (down from JP¥144 in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥30.2b (down 6.8% from FY 2022). Net income: JP¥310.0m (down 85% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 1.0% (down from 6.4% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 3.7%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.8% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 24% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • May 13
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 22, 2023 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 22, 2023. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥9.00 per share at 2.4% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2023. Payment date: 06 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 69% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.4%. Lower than top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.8%). Reported Earnings • Jan 31
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥11.79 (vs JP¥23.59 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥11.79 (down from JP¥23.59 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥7.59b (flat on 3Q 2022). Net income: JP¥169.0m (down 50% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 2.2% (down from 4.5% in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 15% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 21% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 75% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥33.0b to JP¥31.0b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥83.70 per share to JP¥20.90 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 46% next year vs 4.5% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan . Consensus price target of JP¥1,900 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥815 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥4.19 (vs JP¥51.01 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥4.19 (down from JP¥51.01 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥7.12b (down 10% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥60.0m (down 92% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 0.8% (down from 9.2% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 24% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 3 were independent directors. The company's board is composed of: 4 independent directors. 8 non-independent directors. Independent Outside Director Yuji Fujisaku was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Oct 28
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥4.19 (vs JP¥51.01 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥4.19 (down from JP¥51.01 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥7.12b (down 10% from 2Q 2022). Net income: JP¥60.0m (down 92% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 0.8% (down from 9.2% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 23% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Oct 06
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Jan 30, 2023 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Jan 30, 2023 Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of JP¥18.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2022. Payment date: 05 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 32% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 4.0%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.9%). Reported Earnings • Jul 30
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: JP¥9.14 (vs JP¥42.23 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: JP¥9.14 (down from JP¥42.23 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥8.14b (down 8.7% from 1Q 2022). Net income: JP¥131.0m (down 78% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.6% (down from 6.8% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 7.2%, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 9% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jul 29
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited Provides Dividend Guidance for the Second Quarter and Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2023 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited provided dividend guidance for the second quarter and fourth quarter fiscal year ending March 31, 2023. For the quarter, company expects dividend guidance of JPY 18.00 per share compared to JPY 90.00 per share (before split).For the quarter, company expects dividend guidance of JPY 18.00 per share compared to JPY 18.00 per share a year ago. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 02
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 51% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥36.0b to JP¥33.0b. EPS estimate also fell from JP¥171 per share to JP¥83.70 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 42% next year vs 5.9% growth forecast for Chemicals industry in Japan . Consensus price target down from JP¥2,900 to JP¥1,900. Share price rose 5.1% to JP¥945 over the past week. Announcement • May 29
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Q1, 2023 Results on Jul 28, 2022 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report Q1, 2023 results on Jul 28, 2022 Reported Earnings • May 13
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: JP¥144 (down from JP¥183 in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥32.4b (up 1.0% from FY 2021). Net income: JP¥2.06b (down 21% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 6.4% (down from 8.2% in FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 5.8%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 12% per year. Announcement • May 13
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2022 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited, Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2022. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to JP¥2,900 Up from JP¥2,500, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 192% above last closing price of JP¥992. Stock is down 60% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥136 for next year compared to JP¥183 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
No independent directors Following the recent departure of a director, there are no independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: No independent directors. 9 non-independent directors. Director Hajime Ikezoe was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The company's lack of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Apr 07
Taoka Chemical Company, Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on May 11, 2022 Taoka Chemical Company, Limited announced that they will report fiscal year 2022 results on May 11, 2022 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 23
Upcoming dividend of JP¥18.00 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 March 2022. Payment date: 04 June 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 23% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.4%. Within top quartile of Japanese dividend payers (3.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.6%). Reported Earnings • Jan 30
Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: JP¥23.59 (down from JP¥52.27 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: JP¥7.55b (flat on 3Q 2021). Net income: JP¥338.0m (down 55% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 4.5% (down from 9.9% in 3Q 2021). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 3.1%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 14%, compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 17% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 13% per year.