Advantage Energy Ltd.

TSX:AAV Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$1.7b

Advantage Energy Valuation

Is AAV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of AAV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: AAV (CA$9.91) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CA$31.32)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: AAV is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAV?

Key metric: As AAV is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AAV. This is calculated by dividing AAV's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AAV's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.3x
EarningsCA$53.05m
Market CapCA$1.70b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AAV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AAV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.8x
KEL Kelt Exploration
27.1xn/aCA$1.8b
CJ Cardinal Energy
93.3x48.83%CA$2.0b
BIR Birchcliff Energy
25.6xn/aCA$1.7b
KEC Kiwetinohk Energy
9.5xn/aCA$1.1b
AAV Advantage Energy
31.3x60.51%CA$1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.3x) compared to the peer average (38.8x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AAV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CNE Canacol Energy
1xn/aUS$38.14m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
ELEF Silver Elephant Mining
0.5xn/aUS$7.09m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
AAV 31.3xIndustry Avg. 19.2xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.3x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (19.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AAV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AAV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.3x
Fair PE Ratio35.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAV is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AAV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$9.91
CA$14.06
+41.83%
10.53%CA$17.50CA$12.00n/a9
Apr ’27CA$10.29
CA$14.00
+36.05%
5.05%CA$15.00CA$12.50n/a9
Mar ’27CA$10.44
CA$14.45
+38.45%
13.06%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Feb ’27CA$11.01
CA$14.73
+33.76%
11.70%CA$20.00CA$13.50n/a11
Jan ’27CA$11.74
CA$14.86
+26.61%
11.48%CA$20.00CA$13.50n/a11
Dec ’26CA$12.48
CA$14.32
+14.73%
13.42%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Nov ’26CA$11.13
CA$14.32
+28.64%
13.42%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Oct ’26CA$11.61
CA$14.16
+21.96%
14.33%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Sep ’26CA$11.11
CA$14.16
+27.44%
14.33%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a11
Aug ’26CA$11.03
CA$14.13
+28.06%
13.95%CA$20.00CA$12.00n/a12
Jul ’26CA$11.83
CA$13.96
+17.99%
15.02%CA$20.00CA$11.50n/a12
Jun ’26CA$11.18
CA$13.58
+21.50%
16.66%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a12
May ’26CA$9.92
CA$13.38
+34.83%
17.81%CA$20.00CA$11.00n/a12
Apr ’26CA$11.02
CA$13.73
+24.57%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00CA$10.2911
Mar ’26CA$10.09
CA$13.73
+36.05%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00CA$10.4411
Feb ’26CA$9.23
CA$13.73
+48.72%
17.11%CA$20.00CA$11.00CA$11.0111
Jan ’26CA$9.86
CA$13.18
+33.69%
18.53%CA$20.00CA$11.00CA$11.7411
Dec ’25CA$9.00
CA$13.23
+46.97%
18.40%CA$20.00CA$11.00CA$12.4811
Nov ’25CA$8.75
CA$13.14
+50.13%
18.72%CA$20.00CA$11.00CA$11.1311
Oct ’25CA$9.63
CA$13.55
+40.66%
17.27%CA$20.00CA$11.00CA$11.6111
Sep ’25CA$9.72
CA$13.95
+43.57%
15.00%CA$20.00CA$12.00CA$11.1111
Aug ’25CA$9.55
CA$13.95
+46.12%
15.00%CA$20.00CA$12.00CA$11.0311
Jul ’25CA$10.38
CA$13.95
+34.44%
14.93%CA$20.00CA$12.00CA$11.8311
Jun ’25CA$11.59
CA$13.46
+16.12%
15.20%CA$19.00CA$11.00CA$11.1812
May ’25CA$10.65
CA$13.46
+26.37%
15.20%CA$19.00CA$11.00CA$9.9212
Apr ’25CA$9.97
CA$13.00
+30.39%
13.42%CA$17.00CA$10.50CA$11.0211
CA$14.06
Fair Value
29.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/14 22:03
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/14 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Advantage Energy Ltd. is covered by 16 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Patrick O'RourkeATB Cormark
Randy OllenbergerBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Tariq SaadBMO Capital Markets Equity Research