CF Industries Holdings (CF) Stock Overview
Engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 0/6 |
| Past Performance | 6/6 |
| Financial Health | 5/6 |
| Dividends | 5/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
CF Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$112.35 |
| 52 Week High | US$141.96 |
| 52 Week Low | US$75.42 |
| Beta | 0.42 |
| 1 Month Change | -8.43% |
| 3 Month Change | 7.72% |
| 1 Year Change | 23.86% |
| 3 Year Change | 78.59% |
| 5 Year Change | 102.94% |
| Change since IPO | 3,367.59% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • May 22
CF Industries: The Fertilizer Rally Is Far From Over
Summary CF Industries benefits from a structurally tight nitrogen fertilizer market, driven by geopolitical disruptions and limited new capacity until 2030. CF's North American asset base and low-cost position provide a competitive advantage as global supply remains constrained, supporting elevated pricing. With natural gas feedstock costs down 11% y/y and robust production, Q2 is poised for strong results, with EPS projected at $5.83 versus street at $5.61. I target 29% upside to $156 (7x EV/EBITDA), as CF's higher growth and margins versus peers should close the current valuation gap. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 11
CF: Tight Nitrogen Markets And DOJ Probe Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for CF Industries Holdings by about $2.90 to $120.95, reflecting updated views on nitrogen pricing, geopolitical risk to supply, and sector valuation multiples that underpin recent Street price target increases across the fertilizer group. Analyst Commentary Street research on CF Industries has leaned toward higher price targets, but the reasoning behind those moves is mixed, with different firms weighing nitrogen pricing, geopolitical risks, and medium term demand in distinct ways.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 22
CF Industries: The Fertilizer Rally Is Far From Over
Summary CF Industries benefits from a structurally tight nitrogen fertilizer market, driven by geopolitical disruptions and limited new capacity until 2030. CF's North American asset base and low-cost position provide a competitive advantage as global supply remains constrained, supporting elevated pricing. With natural gas feedstock costs down 11% y/y and robust production, Q2 is poised for strong results, with EPS projected at $5.83 versus street at $5.61. I target 29% upside to $156 (7x EV/EBITDA), as CF's higher growth and margins versus peers should close the current valuation gap. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 11
CF: Tight Nitrogen Markets And DOJ Probe Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for CF Industries Holdings by about $2.90 to $120.95, reflecting updated views on nitrogen pricing, geopolitical risk to supply, and sector valuation multiples that underpin recent Street price target increases across the fertilizer group. Analyst Commentary Street research on CF Industries has leaned toward higher price targets, but the reasoning behind those moves is mixed, with different firms weighing nitrogen pricing, geopolitical risks, and medium term demand in distinct ways.
Narrative Update • Apr 26
CF Industries Delivers Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Amid Tight Nitrogen Markets and Robust Cash Generation
Executive Summary Analyst: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) CF Industries Holdings, Inc. delivered a solid operating and financial performance in the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, reflecting favorable nitrogen market fundamentals, disciplined cost management, and high asset utilization.Narrative Update • Apr 22
CF: Tighter Nitrogen Markets And DOJ Probe Will Shape Future Premium
CF Industries Holdings' analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted from $112.58 to $118.05, reflecting a series of higher Street price targets as analysts factor in tighter nitrogen markets, geopolitical supply risks, and refined assumptions for revenue trends, margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on CF Industries points to a mix of optimism on earnings power in tighter nitrogen markets and caution around geopolitical risk, fertilizer demand trends, and valuation after a strong sector move.Narrative Update • Apr 07
CF: DOJ Price Fixing Probe Will Eventually Pressure Elevated Nitrogen Premium
CF Industries' updated analyst price target has moved about $7 higher, as analysts weigh higher implied fair value, slightly lower discount rates, firmer margin expectations, and a lower assumed future P/E against mixed views on nitrogen pricing and geopolitical risk. Analyst Commentary Recent research on CF Industries shows a cluster of higher price targets, but with a split view on how durable current conditions may be and how much upside is already reflected in the share price.
New Narrative • Mar 27
Low Carbon Ammonia Ambitions And Gas Spreads Will Pressure Future Earnings And Margins
Catalysts About CF Industries Holdings CF Industries Holdings produces nitrogen based fertilizers and low carbon ammonia for agricultural and industrial customers. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 23
CF: DOJ Fertilizer Probe Will Constrain Returns Despite Tight Nitrogen Markets
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for CF Industries to about $106 from roughly $98. This reflects higher price targets across the Street as they factor in firmer nitrogen pricing, improved profit margins, and a slightly lower assumed P/E multiple, despite some mixed ratings and geopolitical risks.
New Narrative • Mar 13
Low Carbon Ammonia And CCS Projects Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook
Catalysts About CF Industries Holdings CF Industries Holdings produces nitrogen based fertilizers and low carbon ammonia for agricultural and industrial customers worldwide. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 08
CF: Tighter Nitrogen Markets And DOJ Probe Will Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their average price target for CF Industries higher to $97.74 from $95.68, reflecting updated views on tighter near term nitrogen markets, geopolitical risks that could support pricing into 2026, and emerging interest in the company's low carbon ammonia exposure. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of optimism and caution on CF Industries, with several firms lifting price targets while keeping a close eye on nitrogen pricing, geopolitical risk, and the company’s execution on low carbon projects.Narrative Update • Feb 22
CF: Tight Nitrogen Markets And Low Carbon Projects Will Guide Balanced Outlook
Analysts have lifted their blended fair value estimate for CF Industries to about $95.68 from $91.21, reflecting higher price targets around $94 to $103 and updated views on tight nitrogen markets, strong free cash flow, and a modestly higher assumed future P/E multiple despite mixed opinions on medium term catalysts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around CF Industries points to a mixed but generally balanced view, with several firms adjusting price targets while maintaining a cautious stance on the shares.Narrative Update • Feb 07
CF: Tight Nitrogen Outlook And Clean Energy Efforts Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for CF Industries Holdings by about $0.40 to $91.21, reflecting slightly softer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, partly offset by higher expected future P/E multiples and updated sector views from recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on CF Industries Holdings reflects a mixed but useful set of signals for you to weigh, with some analysts focusing on upside tied to nitrogen fundamentals and cash generation, and others leaning cautious around sector headwinds and valuation reset.Analysis Article • Jan 31
CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.50
The board of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.50 per share on...Narrative Update • Jan 24
CF: Tight Ammonia Markets And Clean Energy Projects Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts made a small upward adjustment to their fair value estimate for CF Industries to about $91.61 per share, reflecting slightly firmer profit margin assumptions and a marginally lower future P/E expectation, even as recent price target moves across the Street remain mixed. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on CF Industries presents a mix of constructive and cautious views, with price targets spread roughly between the high $70s and $100.Narrative Update • Jan 10
CF: Tight Ammonia Markets And Clean Energy Projects Will Support Returns
Analysts have trimmed their blended fair value estimate for CF Industries Holdings by about US$0.30 per share to roughly US$91.44. This reflects a mix of lower price targets tied to concerns about potential nitrogen oversupply and uneven industrial demand, partly offset by more constructive views on tight ammonia markets, shareholder returns, and the company’s clean energy buildout.Narrative Update • Dec 25
CF: Tight Nitrogen And Ammonia Markets Will Support Future Shareholder Returns
Analysts have nudged their blended price target for CF Industries Holdings slightly lower, trimming it by about $0.45 to reflect a modestly softer valuation backdrop. At the same time, they highlight supportive nitrogen fundamentals, tight ammonia markets, and continued free cash flow and clean energy investment as key offsets.Narrative Update • Dec 11
CF: Tight Nitrogen And Ammonia Markets Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on CF Industries Holdings to reflect a slightly lower fair value estimate of about $92, incorporating a mix of reduced targets from firms citing a cautious macro and commodity backdrop, and higher targets from those highlighting tight ammonia markets, strong free cash flow, and long term clean energy growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Analyst views on CF Industries remain mixed, with a generally constructive stance on the company’s strategic positioning but tempered by concerns around the broader macro and commodity backdrop.Narrative Update • Nov 27
CF: Tight Nitrogen Markets And Clean Energy Advances Will Drive Long-Term Upside
The analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings has been adjusted slightly lower. This change reflects a modest decrease as analysts acknowledge both headwinds in profit margin expectations and ongoing support from industry fundamentals such as free cash flow generation and operational progress.Narrative Update • Nov 07
CF: Continued Share Repurchases And Low-Carbon Progress Will Support Future Gains
The consensus analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings has shifted modestly lower, dropping from approximately $93.56 to $92.94. Analysts cite a more cautious outlook on revenue growth and industry fundamentals, despite recent adjustments in sector forecasts.Analysis Article • Oct 05
CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.50
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.50 per share on the 28th of...Analysis Article • Sep 03
When Should You Buy CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)?
Let's talk about the popular CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF ). The company's shares received a lot of attention...Analysis Article • Jul 25
CF Industries Holdings' (NYSE:CF) Dividend Will Be $0.50
The board of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 29th of August...Seeking Alpha • Mar 19
CF Industries: The Cash King Of The Fertilizer Industry
Summary CF Industries, the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer producer, boasts an economic moat with low-cost operations and superior logistics, ensuring consistent shareholder value. The company's strategic focus on nitrogen-based products and disciplined capital reinvestment have led to substantial free cash flow and shareholder returns. Future growth is bolstered by ventures into blue and green ammonia, positioning CF ahead of regulatory trends and opening new market opportunities. At $76 per share, CF Industries offers a 36% margin of safety, making it a compelling buy with a 10% yield on owner earnings. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 02
CF Industries: A Trump 2.0 Bellwether
Summary CF Industries, the largest nitrogen fertilizer producer, benefits from low U.S. natural gas prices and strategic export capabilities, positioning it well for growth. Despite risks from energy volatility and global competition, CF's unique location and Trump 2.0 policies mitigate these challenges. Strong agricultural production forecasts in the U.S., particularly for corn and soybeans, bolster CF's market position and growth prospects. Trading at an attractive multiple, CF Industries offers a relatively safe investment with significant free cash flow and long-term shareholder value growth potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 26
CF Industries: Setup Playing Out As Drawn Up - Here's What's Next (Technical Analysis)
Summary Our methodology helps us identify high-probability trading setups, providing guidance and potential risk versus reward on each chart we study, like CF Industries. This approach offers a structured way to analyze markets, helping investors objectively understand price movements and adjust quickly when wrong. We share these levels for CF. The current setup shows key near-term support and an alternative scenario as well. Our system ranks probabilistic market movements and provides alternative perspectives, aiming to keep investors on the right side of trades. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 19
CF Industries: Probably The Ideal Fertilizer Investment
Summary CF Industries, the world's leader in ammonia production, is well-managed and trading at an attractive price for long-term returns, earning a Buy rating. The company's robust financial health, low debt, and steady buybacks and dividends make it a compelling investment despite cyclical and commodity risks. CF's strategic positioning and ability to capitalize on global disruptions, like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlight its resilience and growth potential. Environmental regulations and shifting agricultural trends pose risks, but CF's proactive approach and strong fundamentals support a positive long-term outlook. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| CF | US Chemicals | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -7.7% | -1.0% | 1.6% |
| 1Y | 23.9% | 6.3% | 28.5% |
Return vs Industry: CF exceeded the US Chemicals industry which returned 6.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: CF underperformed the US Market which returned 28.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| CF volatility | |
|---|---|
| CF Average Weekly Movement | 8.9% |
| Chemicals Industry Average Movement | 7.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.0% |
Stable Share Price: CF has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: CF's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1946 | 2,900 | Chris Bohn | www.cfindustries.com |
CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| CF fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$17.26b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$1.76b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$7.41b |
9.8x
P/E Ratio2.3x
P/S RatioIs CF overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| CF income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$7.41b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$4.51b |
| Gross Profit | US$2.90b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.14b |
| Earnings | US$1.76b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
Aug 05, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 11.44 |
| Gross Margin | 39.13% |
| Net Profit Margin | 23.73% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 39.0% |
How did CF perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
1.8%
Current Dividend Yield18%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/31 22:03 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is covered by 44 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Harriet Li | Accountability Research Corporation |
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Benjamin Theurer | Barclays |