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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.NYSE:ARI Stock Report

Market Cap US$1.4b
Share Price
US$10.91
US$10.55
3.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
1Y11.0%
7D0.7%
1D
Portfolio Value
​
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

NYSE:ARI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.4b

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) Stock Overview

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. More details

ARI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation1/6
Future Growth1/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends2/6

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (12.9x) is below the US market (18.7x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 10.69% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 9.17% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow


ARI Community Fair Values

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See what 15 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

Analyst Price Targets

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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$10.91
52 Week HighUS$11.24
52 Week LowUS$9.49
Beta1.41
1 Month Change-0.27%
3 Month Change2.63%
1 Year Change10.99%
3 Year Change-3.88%
5 Year Change-31.12%
Change since IPO-41.03%

Recent News & Updates

Seeking Alpha • Jun 16

Apollo Commercial Being Liquidated, Showing Investors How To Profit (Downgrade)

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is pursuing liquidation, pending shareholder approval, after failing to find a viable path forward. ARI will return cash to shareholders and attempt to sell its $466M REO portfolio, with a special $3.75/share dividend declared. The current market price ($11/share) trades at a modest 8.3% discount to book value ($12/share), reflecting uncertainty around asset liquidation values. We downgrade ARI to Hold, as the investment now hinges on CRE market recovery and successful asset sales above book value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jun 16

Apollo Commercial Being Liquidated, Showing Investors How To Profit (Downgrade)

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is pursuing liquidation, pending shareholder approval, after failing to find a viable path forward. ARI will return cash to shareholders and attempt to sell its $466M REO portfolio, with a special $3.75/share dividend declared. The current market price ($11/share) trades at a modest 8.3% discount to book value ($12/share), reflecting uncertainty around asset liquidation values. We downgrade ARI to Hold, as the investment now hinges on CRE market recovery and successful asset sales above book value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Apr 28

Apollo Commercial Q1: Quality Mortgage REIT With 11% Yield

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a quality mortgage REIT delivering an 11% yield. ARI's diversified loan portfolio, low loan-to-value ratio, and strong liquidity position reduce risk and enhance stability. ARI has outperformed the mortgage REIT sector, with a total return of 136% over the past five years. Risks include macroeconomic slowdown and recession fears. In this article I cover the Q1 Earnings call and outlook for ARI, including the stability of the dividend. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

Apollo Commercial: More Than Meets The Eye (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's dividend cut in 3Q24 improved its dividend pay-out ratio, making the dividend safer and better covered. Despite market challenges, ARI profited from $1.9 billion in new loan originations in 2024, though it faced significant loan losses. ARI's stock is undervalued, selling at a 25% discount to book value, presenting a favorable risk/reward compared to peers like Blackstone Mortgage Trust. Higher interest rates pose risks, but ARI's dividend cut provides a margin of safety, supporting a 'Buy' rating with a 10% dividend yield. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 07

I Am Loading Up On This Fat 11% Yield: Apollo Commercial

Summary What is the best time to buy income? When others are selling it on the cheap. Buying distressed sectors can provide massive income opportunities. Retirement is a beautiful time to swim in dividends. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 13

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance: A Buy After 29% Dividend Cut?

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance cut its dividend by 29% due to non-performing loans, but has since improved its dividend pay-out metrics. The trust's portfolio, heavily invested in office loans, shrank in 3Q24, with significant investment losses impacting distributable earnings. Despite the dividend cut, Apollo's stock offers a 10.8% yield and trades at a 32% discount to book value, providing a margin of safety. Given the high uncertainty and potential for future losses, I recommend holding Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 06

Apollo Commercial: More Value Destruction As Leverage Remains Sky-High

Summary ARI reported a Q3-2024 net income loss of 69 cents per share, with distributable earnings at 31 cents per share. ARI's book value continues to erode, with 10% of loans non-performing. We tell you how this is likely to play out and which 7.86% yield we like on a relative basis. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 16

Apollo Commercial: Deep Value Or A Falling Knife?

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. faces significant headwinds, including a dividend cut, lower mortgage rates, and rising systematic risk in the commercial real estate sector. The mREIT's portfolio is concentrated in floating-rate loans with a short weighted average term, exposing it to mark-to-market and collateral valuation risks. Despite a dividend yield of 11.34%, the recent dividend cut signals softer internal growth and the potential for further cuts. Valuation metrics like a price-to-book ratio of 0.61x and an oversold RSI suggest potential upside, but fundamental headwinds likely outweigh these factors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 17

Apollo Commercial: Distribution Cut, New Yield 10.3%

Summary We had rated Apollo Commercial as a Sell due to the high risks in its business model. The "surprise" distribution cut has reduced the risks slightly and the stock has of course moved lower as well. We examine the new setup for this mortgage REIT with a double-digit yield. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 27

Hold Fast To This 13% Income Generator: Apollo Commercial

Summary The commercial real estate market is in the midst of extreme pressure and companies exposed to it are taking blows. You can glean strong income from this sector if you are careful and diligent. Management makes all the difference. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 19

Apollo Commercial: Risky 14% Yield

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance maintained a $0.35 per share dividend, but had no margin of safety left for the dividend. The portfolio saw an increase in originations but suffered higher credit provisions in 2Q24. Stocks are selling at a 29% discount to book value, but dividends remain risky due to a lack of margin of safety. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 18

Apollo Commercial: Comparing 13% Yielder Versus Peers

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. has a very high yield of 13%. We compare this one to Blackstone Mortgage, Ares Commercial and BrightSpire Capital. The riskiest one does stand out. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 06

Apollo Commercial: Margin Of Safety Has Disappeared (Rating Downgrade)

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance earned its dividend in the first quarter but saw a deterioration in dividend coverage. The trust has a large portfolio of commercial real estate loans, with a significant portion allocated to the office sector. The market anticipates a dividend cut, as the stock is selling at a 30% discount to book value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

Apollo Commercial: This 13% May Look Riskier Than It Is

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's portfolio value grew in Q4 2023 as originations exceeded repayments for the first time in the year. Dividend risks have slightly increased due to a lower margin of dividend safety reflected by the company's dividend coverage ratio. ARI's stock is selling at a large 31% discount to book value, making it attractive to passive income investors. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 16

Apollo Commercial: Solid Dividend Coverage Turns This CRE Trust Into A Buy (Upgrade)

Summary Lower interest rates in 2024 could boost Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's loan origination business and result in higher distributable earnings. Despite a decline in portfolio value and high dividend risks, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance may be able to maintain its dividend without cutting it. The trust's stock has been sold at a discount due to office exposure, but lower interest rates could revive its loan origination business and slow loan repayments. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 03

Apollo Commercial: This 13.4% Yield Looks Better Now (Upgrade)

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has seen a contraction in its loan origination business and improved dividend payout ratio. ARI stock is selling at a large discount to book value, providing a margin of safety. The company remains a higher-risk choice for passive income investors due to cyclical earnings risks and interest rate reversals. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 21

Apollo Commercial: Has Been Over-Punished

Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance currently trades at a 30% discount to book value. The 12.8% dividend yield is well covered and will continue to be covered in the high-interest rate environment. Apollo Commercial has an excellent management team that is keeping liquidity strong in these unusual post Covid times. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jul 12

With EPS Growth And More, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Makes An Interesting Case

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 10

Earn 12% By Owning The Lender Not The Lendee: Apollo Commercial RE

Summary Sometimes it's better to own the assets, sometimes, it's better to own the creditor. It's good to be greedy when others are fearful, especially if their fears are a result of simple misunderstandings. Today, we look at a company that is smashing their earnings, yet the market continues to value them at a discount. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Apr 06

Here's Why Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors

It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...

Shareholder Returns

ARIUS Mortgage REITsUS Market
7D0.7%-1.2%-2.3%
1Y11.0%-1.4%21.2%

Return vs Industry: ARI exceeded the US Mortgage REITs industry which returned -1.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ARI underperformed the US Market which returned 23.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ARI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ARI volatility
ARI Average Weekly Movement2.4%
Mortgage REITs Industry Average Movement3.6%
Market Average Movement7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: ARI has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.

Volatility Over Time: ARI's weekly volatility (2%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2009n/aStuart Rothsteinwww.apollocref.com

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ARI fundamental statistics
Market capUS$1.43b
Earnings (TTM)US$112.14m
Revenue (TTM)US$268.48m
12.9x
P/E Ratio
5.4x
P/S Ratio

Is ARI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
ARI income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$268.48m
Cost of RevenueUS$82.66m
Gross ProfitUS$185.81m
Other ExpensesUS$73.67m
EarningsUS$112.14m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2026

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)0.84
Gross Margin69.21%
Net Profit Margin41.77%
Debt/Equity Ratio450.3%

How did ARI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

9.2%
Current Dividend Yield
124%
Payout Ratio

Does ARI pay a reliable dividends?

See ARI dividend history and benchmarks
When do you need to buy ARI by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance dividend dates
Ex Dividend DateJun 30 2026
Dividend Pay DateJul 15 2026
Days until Ex dividend6 days
Days until Dividend pay date21 days

Does ARI pay a reliable dividends?

See ARI dividend history and benchmarks

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/23 10:31
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/23 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is covered by 11 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ross SmotrichBarclays
Derek HewettBofA Global Research
William CatherwoodBTIG