Live News • May 14
Air France-KLM Group Plans Name Change as SAS and TAP Stakes Expand Portfolio Air France-KLM plans to change its 22-year-old group name as part of a rebrand led by CEO Ben Smith, aiming for a more neutral identity that is not tied only to the Air France and KLM brands.
The group is preparing to acquire a majority stake in Scandinavian airline SAS, broadening its reach in Northern Europe.
It is also pursuing a minority stake in TAP Air Portugal, which would extend its presence in Southern Europe and deepen its airline portfolio.
This combination of rebranding and new equity stakes signals a push to present Air France-KLM as a broader airline group, similar to other multi-brand aviation holding companies.
For investors, the key questions will be how efficiently the group integrates SAS and any TAP stake, and what this means for future capital needs, partnership structures and competitive positioning versus rivals such as Lufthansa. Announcement • May 03
Air France-KLM SA Revises Operating Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 Air France-KLM SA revised operating guidance for the fiscal year 2026. For the year, the company expected capacity up by +2% to +4% compared to 2025. (previously +3% to +5%). Reported Earnings • May 02
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: €1.15 loss per share (improved from €1.16 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: €7.48b (up 4.4% from 1Q 2025). Net loss: €287.0m (loss narrowed 5.9% from 1Q 2025). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 3% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 15% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • May 02
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 129% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (129% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (9.0% average weekly change). Announcement • Apr 28
Air France-KLM SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 03, 2026 Air France-KLM SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 03, 2026. Location: hotel hilton paris charles de gaulle airport, 8 rue de rome, tremblay en france France Major Estimate Revision • Apr 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from €4.03 to €3.55 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €35.0b. Net income forecast to shrink 41% next year vs 7.1% decline forecast for Airlines industry in France. Consensus price target down from €11.53 to €11.01. Share price fell 4.8% to €9.73 over the past week. Announcement • Apr 04
Air France-KLM SA (ENXTPA:AF) submits a non-binding offer to acquire 49.90% stake in SIAVILO - SGPS, S.A. from Portugal. Air France-KLM SA (ENXTPA:AF) submits a non-binding offer to acquire 49.90% stake in SIAVILO - SGPS, S.A. from Portugal on April 2, 2026. Reported Earnings • Mar 27
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: €5.83 (up from €0.93 in FY 2024). Revenue: €33.0b (up 4.9% from FY 2024). Net income: €1.53b (up €1.29b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.6% (up from 0.8% in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 42%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 20% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Announcement • Mar 03
Air France-KLM to Pay €368 Million Related to Cargo Final Judgement Air France-KLM has taken note of the judgement of the Court of Justice of the European Union rejecting the appeal filed against the decision of the General Court of Justice of the European Union confirming the decision of the European Commission of 17 March 2017 against 13 cargo operators, including Group airlines Air France, KLM and Martinair for past practices considered to be anti-competitive in the air cargo sector. The practices in question date back more than 20 years and have been subject of proceedings before the European Courts, resulting in a decision that has now become final. Air France-KLM confirms its commitment to comply strictly with competition rules while constantly ensuring the effectiveness of the prevention system that it implements in the framework of its general compliance policy. Provisions for €366m had been made in respect of these fines - which amount to a total of €368 million including interest. The full amount will be paid in March 2026. Price Target Changed • Feb 24
Price target increased by 7.1% to €12.60 Up from €11.77, the current price target is an average from 20 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €12.72. Stock is up 48% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €4.37 for next year compared to €5.83 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 23
Full year 2025 earnings released: EPS: €5.83 (vs €0.93 in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: EPS: €5.83 (up from €0.93 in FY 2024). Revenue: €33.0b (up 4.9% from FY 2024). Net income: €1.53b (up €1.29b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.6% (up from 0.8% in FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year. Announcement • Jan 29
Air France-KLM SA to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Feb 19, 2026 Air France-KLM SA announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results at 7:45 AM, Central European Standard Time on Feb 19, 2026 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to €11.65, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Airlines industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 9.5% over the past three years. New Risk • Dec 09
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of French stocks, typically moving 6.7% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Nov 09
Third quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: €2.78 (vs €2.91 in 3Q 2024) Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: €2.78 (down from €2.91 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: €9.21b (up 2.6% from 3Q 2024). Net income: €730.0m (down 4.6% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.9% (down from 8.5% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 2% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 12% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to €9.63, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 2x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Airlines industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 31% over the past three years. Announcement • Nov 07
Air France–KLM Reconfirms Traffic Guidance for the Year 2025 Air France–KLM reconfirmed traffic guidance for the year 2025. For the year, the Group expects Capacity in Available Seat Kilometers for Air France-KLM Group including Transavia to increase by 4% to 5% in 2025 compared to 2024. New Risk • Aug 26
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of French stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 08
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 21% After last week's 21% share price gain to €13.45, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Airlines industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 12% over the past three years. New Risk • Aug 03
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 278% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Aug 03
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: €2.30 (vs €0.41 in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: €2.30 (up from €0.41 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: €8.44b (up 6.2% from 2Q 2024). Net income: €605.0m (up 460% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.2% (up from 1.4% in 2Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.6% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 46% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 31
Price target increased by 7.5% to €9.64 Up from €8.97, the current price target is an average from 15 analysts. New target price is 17% below last closing price of €11.58. Stock is up 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.55 for next year compared to €0.93 last year. Announcement • Jul 04
Air France-KLM SA (ENXTPA:AF) intends to acquire 40.60% stake in SAS AB (publ) from Castlelake Aviation Limited and Lind Invest ApS. Air France-KLM SA (ENXTPA:AF) intends to acquire 40.60% stake in SAS AB (publ) from Castlelake Aviation Limited and Lind Invest ApS on July 4, 2025. Upon completion, Air France-KLM SA will own 60.50% stake in SAS AB (publ). Air France-KLM will acquire 32% stake from Castlelake and 8.6% stake from Lind Invest.
The transaction is subject to approval by regulatory board / committee. The transaction is subject to close in second half of 2026. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to €9.02, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Airlines industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 19% over the past three years. Announcement • Jun 20
Turkish Airlines Reportedly Explores Air Europa Stake as Bid Deadline Looms Turkish Airlines (Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (IBSE:THYAO)) is exploring making a bid for a minority stake in Air Europa (Air Europa Líneas Aéreas S.A.U.), the latest carrier to express interest in the Spanish airline, according to two sources with knowledge of the deal, with binding bids due in the coming weeks. Interested investors have been asked to submit binding bids by early July, one of the sources and two more said. The sources declined to be identified because the terms are confidential. Turkish Airlines' consideration of a bid is significant as there are few examples of carriers outside Europe buying shares in players in the region. The interest has been reported by Spanish online newspaper El Espanol. The deadline for binding bids has not previously been reported. Air France-KLM SA (ENXTPA:AF) and Lufthansa (Deutsche Lufthansa AG (XTRA:LHA)) are also in talks with Globalia (Globalia Corporación Empresarial, S.A.), the holding company of the family Hidalgo that founded the company, about buying a stake, Reuters reported previously. The airline makes just over a quarter of its revenues from Europe. It has a codeshare agreement with Air Europa. Turkish Airlines did not immediately respond to requests for comment, while its shareholder Turkey's Wealth Fund declined to comment. A representative for Globalia and the Hidalgo family said they did not want to comment on an ongoing operation because of confidentiality issues. Lufthansa declined to comment. An Air France-KLM spokesperson said the airline is interested in reinforcing its longstanding cooperation with Air Europa. Binding bids would mark the next phase of a prolonged sale process as Air Europa seeks to raise cash to repay a government loan granted during the pandemic. A previous plan had aimed for binding bids in May, two of the sources said. The process has faced delays due in part to disagreements between members of the Hidalgo family and concerns from interested airlines on the structure of the deal, according to the two sources and a fourth one said. The interested parties are working with advisers to structure bids in the hope that buying a minority stake of about 20% may put them in a better position to take control of the airline in the future, the two sources added. Some potential suitors have expressed concern over a lack of clarity about how they may be able to do that, according to the fourth person with knowledge of the talks. New Risk • May 02
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 549% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (549% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Price Target Changed • Apr 10
Price target decreased by 8.1% to €8.99 Down from €9.79, the current price target is an average from 18 analysts. New target price is 20% above last closing price of €7.52. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.79 for next year compared to €0.93 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 09
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: €0.93 (down from €4.30 in FY 2023). Revenue: €31.5b (up 4.8% from FY 2023). Net income: €244.0m (down 68% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 0.8% (down from 2.6% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Total aircraft: 564 (up by 23 from FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 53%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 129% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 43% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to €7.59, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 2x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Airlines industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 62% over the past three years. Announcement • Mar 28
IAG to Consider Selling 20% Stake in Air Europa British Airways-owner International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (LSE:IAG) will consider selling its 20% stake in Air Europa (Air Europa Líneas Aéreas S.A.U.) as the Spanish airline's owner continues talks with Air France-KLM SA (ENXTPA:AF) and Deutsche Lufthansa AG (XTRA:LHA) to sell a stake in the company, IAG's Chief Executive Officer told Reuters. The move comes as European airlines have called for further consolidation of the sector, with many focusing on key routes in southern Europe as a target for expansion. "It's something that we are going to decide when (Globalia) take a decision about what they do with the company (Air Europa). We can stay or we can leave," IAG Chief Executive Officer Luis Gallego said on March 27, 2025. IAG scrapped a deal to buy Air Europa last year after it couldn't convince EU competition regulators that its proposed remedies were sufficient. Gallego said IAG was still interested in taking a stake in Portugal's TAP as IAG seeks to pursue a double-hub strategy in Iberia with Madrid and Lisbon as key points. However, elections in Portugal are set to delay TAP's sale, which means the conditions for any deal are still unclear. "If there is continuity with the current government, I think the process is going to be delayed maybe two, three months," Gallego said. "If there is a new government, I think we are going to have a bigger delay." He added that IAG's interest in TAP was contingent on its ability to be able to integrate the airline into its broader group and processes. "What we need to see is not only the stake, but also the freedom that you have to manage the company," he said. Price Target Changed • Mar 25
Price target increased by 8.8% to €9.66 Up from €8.88, the current price target is an average from 18 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €9.76. Stock is down 3.9% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.87 for next year compared to €0.93 last year. Announcement • Mar 07
Air France-KLM SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 04, 2025 Air France-KLM SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 04, 2025. Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: €2.91 (vs €5.05 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: €2.91 (down from €5.05 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: €8.98b (up 3.7% from 3Q 2023). Net income: €765.0m (down 16% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 8.5% (down from 11% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.9% p.a. on average during the next 4 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 134% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 31% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 06
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 38% After last week's 38% share price gain to €12.16, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Airlines industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 34% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Jan 16
Price target decreased by 10% to €9.13 Down from €10.16, the current price target is an average from 18 analysts. New target price is 28% above last closing price of €7.12. Stock is down 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.94 for next year compared to €4.30 last year. New Risk • Dec 20
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of French stocks, typically moving 6.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.5% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.2% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.2% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Dec 12
Air France Expands Network with 3 Weekly Non-Stop Flight Between Manila and Paris Air France has officially inaugurated a new 3 weekly non-stop flight between Manila and Paris on Sunday 8 December. In a pre-departure ribbon-cutting ceremony, Secretary of Transportation, Jaime J. Bautista, Secretary of Tourism,ina Garcia Frasco, French Ambassador Marie Fontanel and Air France-KLM General Manager for South East Asia & Oceania, Femke Kroese each highlighted the importance of the new route. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: €2.97 (vs €5.05 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: €2.97 (down from €5.05 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: €8.98b (up 3.7% from 3Q 2023). Net income: €780.0m (down 14% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 8.7% (down from 11% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 133% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 43% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 24% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €2.46 to €1.87. Revenue forecast unchanged from €31.3b at last update. Net income forecast to grow 291% next year vs 6.6% growth forecast for Airlines industry in France. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €11.02. Share price fell 12% to €7.94 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 17
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from €2.33 to €2.57. Revenue forecast steady at €31.2b. Net income forecast to grow 303% next year vs 0.9% growth forecast for Airlines industry in France. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €11.14. Share price rose 2.2% to €8.75 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jul 29
Price target decreased by 7.2% to €11.06 Down from €11.91, the current price target is an average from 17 analysts. New target price is 33% above last closing price of €8.33. Stock is down 47% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.21 for next year compared to €4.30 last year. New Risk • Jul 26
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 0.4% Last year net profit margin: 3.6% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.4% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.2% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Jul 26
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: €0.46 (vs €1.79 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: €0.46 (down from €1.79 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: €7.95b (up 4.3% from 2Q 2023). Net income: €121.0m (down 75% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 6.3% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.4% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 133% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 40% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Jul 12
Price target decreased by 11% to €11.97 Down from €13.46, the current price target is an average from 17 analysts. New target price is 47% above last closing price of €8.16. Stock is down 49% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.18 for next year compared to €4.30 last year. New Risk • May 01
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.2x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.2x net interest cover). Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.0% net profit margin). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.2% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Apr 30
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: €4.30 (vs €3.49 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: €4.30 (up from €3.49 in FY 2022). Revenue: €30.0b (up 14% from FY 2022). Net income: €772.0m (up 31% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.6% (up from 2.2% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Total aircraft: 541 (up by 36 from FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 3.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 120% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 41% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €3.84 to €3.46 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €31.4b. Net income forecast to grow 35% next year vs 10.0% decline forecast for Airlines industry in France. Consensus price target down from €15.50 to €15.00. Share price fell 8.9% to €9.40 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 10
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €4.06 to €3.59 per share. Revenue forecast steady at €31.4b. Net income forecast to grow 33% next year vs 8.6% decline forecast for Airlines industry in France. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €15.50. Share price rose 2.2% to €9.97 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 07
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to €9.69, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 2x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Airlines industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 63% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Mar 04
Price target decreased by 8.4% to €14.79 Down from €16.15, the current price target is an average from 16 analysts. New target price is 45% above last closing price of €10.23. Stock is down 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €4.01 for next year compared to €4.30 last year. New Risk • Mar 03
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.2% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.9x net interest cover). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.2% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Mar 01
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: €0.43. Revenue: €30.0b (up 14% from FY 2022). Net income: €934.0m (up 58% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.1% (up from 2.2% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Airlines industry in Europe. Price Target Changed • Nov 10
Price target decreased by 8.4% to €17.35 Down from €18.94, the current price target is an average from 17 analysts. New target price is 46% above last closing price of €11.86. Stock is down 15% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.93 for next year compared to €3.49 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 08
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to €12.41, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Airlines industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 38% over the past three years. New Risk • Oct 30
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 2.7x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.7x net interest cover). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Negative equity (-€564m). New Risk • Oct 28
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Negative equity (-€564m). Announcement • Oct 16
Apollo Reportedly Seeking to Join Airline SAS Investor Consortium U.S. private equity firm Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO) is seeking to join the consortium that Scandinavian airline SAS AB (publ)(OM:SAS) last week picked to take it through bankruptcy proceedings, according to a source familiar with the matter. Long-struggling SAS, ravaged by the pandemic and pressured by low-cost rivals, sought bankruptcy protection last year. SAS announced last week that Air France-KLM SA (ENXTPA:AF) and U.S. investment firm Castlelake, L.P. would become new major shareholders alongside the Danish state. Apollo, which last year granted SAS a $700 million debtor-in-possession (DIP) loan to fund its restructuring, had been seen as a likely winner in the bidding round by the airline to raise equity as part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy plan. Apollo could convert the loan into equity at the end of the process. "Apollo is still an active bidder," the source said, adding that the U.S. company was seeking to inject additional cash into SAS on top of what the winning consortium said it would invest. It was unclear how big a stake Apollo would seek or how much it would invest. Total investments by new shareholders, which also include Danish investment firm Lind Invest, in the reorganized SAS would amount to 12.9 billion Swedish crowns ($1.18 billion). SAS, Castlelake, Air France-KLM and Apollo all declined to comment. The Danish finance ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. 
