National Vision Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:EYE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.1b

National Vision Holdings Valuation

Is EYE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of EYE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: EYE ($25.93) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($29.61)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: EYE is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EYE?

Key metric: As EYE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EYE. This is calculated by dividing EYE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EYE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio69.6x
EarningsUS$29.60m
Market CapUS$2.12b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EYE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EYE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.7x
WINA Winmark
39x7.40%US$1.6b
SBH Sally Beauty Holdings
7.7x11.36%US$1.4b
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors
9.8x6.42%US$3.9b
UPBD Upbound Group
14.2x22.63%US$1.1b
EYE National Vision Holdings
69.6x37.47%US$2.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EYE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (69.6x) compared to the peer average (17.7x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EYE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LUXE LuxExperience B.V
2x-101.03%US$1.20b
TLF Tandy Leather Factory
2.1xn/aUS$19.05m
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2.8xn/aUS$12.57m
SSOK Sunstock
0.09xn/aUS$69.18k
EYE 69.6xIndustry Avg. 18.2xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EYE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (69.6x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (18.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EYE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EYE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio69.6x
Fair PE Ratio29.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EYE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (69.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EYE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$25.93
US$35.27
+36.03%
13.73%US$42.00US$26.00n/a11
Mar ’27US$26.97
US$33.18
+23.03%
12.31%US$39.00US$27.00n/a11
Feb ’27US$26.35
US$33.18
+25.93%
12.31%US$39.00US$27.00n/a11
Jan ’27US$25.82
US$32.82
+27.10%
13.74%US$39.00US$26.00n/a11
Dec ’26US$27.99
US$32.90
+17.54%
14.35%US$39.00US$26.00n/a10
Nov ’26US$25.75
US$29.80
+15.73%
14.30%US$36.00US$22.00n/a10
Oct ’26US$29.10
US$28.85
-0.86%
12.40%US$36.00US$22.00n/a10
Sep ’26US$22.94
US$28.85
+25.76%
12.40%US$36.00US$22.00n/a10
Aug ’26US$24.21
US$27.00
+11.52%
21.28%US$36.00US$17.00n/a10
Jul ’26US$24.20
US$20.40
-15.70%
19.75%US$27.00US$15.00n/a10
Jun ’26US$19.81
US$18.80
-5.10%
11.11%US$22.00US$15.00n/a10
May ’26US$12.90
US$14.35
+11.24%
13.23%US$18.00US$13.00n/a10
Apr ’26US$12.80
US$14.35
+12.11%
13.23%US$18.00US$13.00n/a10
Mar ’26US$12.71
US$14.10
+10.94%
14.34%US$18.00US$12.00US$26.9710
Feb ’26US$11.40
US$13.50
+18.42%
16.97%US$18.00US$12.00US$26.3510
Jan ’26US$10.42
US$13.70
+31.48%
16.34%US$18.00US$12.00US$25.8210
Dec ’25US$12.10
US$13.70
+13.22%
16.34%US$18.00US$12.00US$27.9910
Nov ’25US$11.01
US$13.70
+24.43%
16.98%US$18.00US$11.00US$25.7510
Oct ’25US$10.69
US$14.90
+39.38%
27.42%US$25.00US$11.00US$29.1010
Sep ’25US$10.56
US$14.90
+41.10%
27.42%US$25.00US$11.00US$22.9410
Aug ’25US$13.58
US$19.90
+46.54%
15.80%US$25.00US$16.00US$24.2110
Jul ’25US$12.67
US$20.60
+62.59%
18.45%US$27.00US$16.00US$24.2010
Jun ’25US$15.09
US$20.90
+38.50%
18.95%US$27.00US$16.00US$19.8110
May ’25US$17.70
US$23.80
+34.46%
15.01%US$30.00US$19.00US$12.9010
Apr ’25US$21.57
US$24.00
+11.27%
15.59%US$30.00US$18.00US$12.8010
Mar ’25US$23.54
US$23.10
-1.87%
17.26%US$30.00US$18.00US$12.7110
US$35.27
Fair Value
26.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/12 21:34
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/12 00:00
Earnings2026/01/03
Annual Earnings2026/01/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

National Vision Holdings, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Adrienne Yih-TennantBarclays
Alexander MarocciaBerenberg
Simeon SiegelBMO Capital Markets Equity Research