Andean Silver, This ASX Silver Restart Story Smart Money is Loading Up On (111Moz AgEq + Ready Infrastructure)

Disclaimer

This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. The views expressed are based on publicly available information, company filings, technical reports, news releases, company presentations, and personal analysis at the time of writing, and they may change without notice. While every effort has been made to present accurate and reasonable information, no representation or warranty is made regarding completeness, accuracy, or reliability.

Mining and resource investments are highly speculative and involve substantial risks, including but not limited to commodity price volatility, exploration risk, grade reconciliation risk, permitting risk, financing risk, dilution, mine restart risk, metallurgy risk, operating cost inflation, environmental approval risk, underground mining risk, processing recovery risk, and changes in market conditions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Any discussion of valuation, upside potential, project economics, management quality, future catalysts, or possible share-price outcomes reflects opinion rather than certainty. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor or other qualified professional before making any investment decisions. The author may hold positions in some of the companies mentioned and may buy or sell securities without further notice.

Andean Silver Limited ASX: ASL / OTCQX: ADSLF

Introduction

Andean Silver Limited is an Australian mineral exploration and development company focused on advancing its 100 percent owned Cerro Bayo Silver-Gold Project in the Aysén region of southern Chile. The company was formerly known as Mitre Mining Corporation and has now repositioned itself around one core idea: restart and expand a historic high-grade silver-gold district with existing infrastructure, a large resource base, and meaningful exploration upside. The company currently reports a JORC Mineral Resource of 9.8Mt at 353 g/t AgEq for 111Moz AgEq at Cerro Bayo.

This is not a blank-map exploration story. Cerro Bayo was previously in production for more than 15 years and produced more than 45Moz silver and 650koz gold, equal to roughly 99Moz AgEq. The project has been on care and maintenance since October 2022, meaning Andean Silver is not starting from zero. It already has a historic mining camp, processing facilities, regional knowledge, existing infrastructure, and a large land package covering 285 sq.km with more than 70 contiguous exploration concessions.

The bull case is simple, Andean Silver controls a past-producing high-grade silver-gold project with existing infrastructure, strong exploration upside, and a large 111Moz AgEq resource in a known mining district. The company’s strategy is to keep expanding the resource, improve resource confidence, progress technical studies, and evaluate a mine restart pathway. According to the company’s own presentation, an internal scoping study has commenced and the company planned to progress to a feasibility study in CY2026.

The strongest upside comes from four things, high-grade silver-gold mineralisation, existing infrastructure, resource growth potential, and silver price leverage. The main risk is also very clear: Andean Silver still needs to prove the restart economics through proper technical studies. Today, there is no completed public PEA, pre-feasibility study, feasibility study, reserve statement, official AISC, official capex number, or official production guidance that investors can rely on as a final economic base case.

Projects / Location / MRE / Grades

Project 1: Cerro Bayo Silver-Gold Project, Chile (Flagship Restart and Development Asset)

Main asset

Cerro Bayo is Andean Silver’s flagship project. The mine is 100 percent owned by the company and is located around 10km west of Chile Chico in the Aysén region of southern Chile. The project covers 285 sq.km and includes more than 70 contiguous exploration concessions, surface properties, the Laguna Verde mining district, and processing facilities.

This matters because Cerro Bayo is not a remote, infrastructure-starved greenfield project. It is a historic mining district with prior production, underground and open-pit mining history, processing infrastructure, and local mining knowledge. The company describes Cerro Bayo as a “ready-to-go underground & open pit silver-gold mine” with significant growth potential.

The project was in production for over 15 years, producing more than 45Moz silver and 650koz gold, or around 99Moz AgEq, before being placed on care and maintenance in October 2022. That past production is important because it gives investors proof that the district can host mineable silver-gold mineralisation. It does not remove restart risk, but it gives the project a stronger foundation than a pure exploration discovery.

Grade feel

Cerro Bayo is high grade by modern silver project standards. The current resource stands at 9.8Mt at 353 g/t AgEq for 111Moz AgEq. The resource includes both open-pit and underground material across two mining complexes, including Taitao, Delia South and Coyita SE.

The grade is the heart of the story. This is not a low-grade, giant-tonnage silver project that needs massive scale to work. Cerro Bayo is a high-grade silver-gold district where the potential restart case is driven by grade, existing infrastructure, recovery performance, mining selectivity, and the ability to convert more inferred resources into higher-confidence categories.

The project also has meaningful gold credit. The total resource includes 47Moz silver and 0.8Moz gold, which converts to 111Moz AgEq. That gold component is important because it supports margins and gives the project more resilience than a pure silver-only asset.

Cerro Bayo Mineral Resource Estimate

The Cerro Bayo Mineral Resource Estimate is reported under the JORC Code 2012 and is dated 1 April 2025.

Cerro Bayo Resource Summary

This gives Andean Silver a large current resource base, but the resource mix matters. Only 18Moz AgEq is currently in the indicated category, while 93Moz AgEq is inferred. That means the project still needs a lot of drilling to improve confidence before the company can support a stronger mine plan, reserve estimate, and financing package.

This is why the 2026 drill program is important. Andean Silver is not only drilling to find more ounces. It also needs to convert inferred ounces into indicated ounces, improve geological confidence, support mine design, and feed future technical studies.

Project 2: Cerro Bayo Exploration (District-Scale Growth Potential)

Cerro Bayo has a large land package and meaningful exploration upside. The company states that about 50 percent of the tenure remains undrilled, with a further 25 percent under-drilled. It also identifies greenfield targets including Raul West, Claudia Vein and the Draught Master vein swarm.

This is one of the biggest attractions of Andean Silver. The current 111Moz AgEq resource already gives the company a serious base. But the district has produced around 99Moz AgEq historically, and the land package still contains many targets. If drilling continues to extend known veins and discover new zones, Cerro Bayo could become a much larger silver-gold system over time.

The latest exploration news also supports this growth story. In May 2026, Andean Silver announced that it had extended bonanza-grade veins beyond the current resource area. That is important because new high-grade hits outside the current resource could feed into future resource updates and improve the restart case.

The risk is that high-grade epithermal vein systems can be structurally complex. These systems can deliver spectacular drill results, but mine planning depends on continuity, true width, dilution control, grade reconciliation, ground conditions, and access development.

Project 3: Existing Infrastructure and Restart Optionality

Cerro Bayo is attractive because it is not just a resource in the ground. It is a past-producing operation with infrastructure. The company highlights existing mill, permits, mining history, and a pathway to potentially low-cost production.

That is the key difference between Andean Silver and many other junior silver developers. A new silver mine normally requires major capex, new permits, new infrastructure, a full construction team, and years of development risk. Cerro Bayo already has a mining footprint, historical processing records, and previous production knowledge.

However, investors should not assume the restart is automatic. Mines on care and maintenance still require refurbishment, updated engineering, mine planning, capital spending, permitting checks, workforce rebuilding, operating readiness, and technical validation. Existing infrastructure lowers the barrier, but it does not remove execution risk.

Share Structure / Ownership / Insiders

Capital Structure

Andean Silver’s December 2025 presentation listed the following capital structure as of 30 September 2025:

After that presentation, the company completed a placement and share purchase plan. The placement was priced at A$1.85 per share and involved 16,216,217 shares. The SPP later issued 3,243,057 new shares.

Based on these announced share issues, the rough basic share count after the placement and SPP is around:

190.5M + 16.216M + 3.243M = approximately 209.96M basic shares

If we add the earlier disclosed 19.6M unlisted options, RSUs and performance rights, a rough fully diluted share count is approximately:

209.96M + 19.6M = approximately 229.56M fully diluted shares

This is an estimate based on public announcements and may change due to option exercises, performance rights, new issues, or cancellations.

Recent market data showed ASL trading around A$2.45 on 14 May 2026, with market capitalisation around A$521M.

Using a rough AUD/USD rate of 0.7223, the approximate fully diluted market cap is:

229.56M shares x A$2.45 = A$562.4M A$562.4M x 0.7223 = approximately US$406.2M

Share structure feel

The share structure is still reasonable for a silver developer with a 111Moz AgEq resource, a past-producing asset, existing infrastructure, strong institutional support, and a rising market profile. It is not a tiny share count, but it is not heavily bloated either.

The positive side is that Andean Silver has moved quickly, raised capital at higher share prices, has no debt reported in the company presentation, and has attracted strong institutional interest. The negative side is that the company is still pre-production and will likely need more capital before any full restart decision.

Future dilution risk remains real. A mine restart, feasibility study, drilling, infrastructure refurbishment, working capital, and technical studies can require meaningful funding.

Ownership / Insiders

Andean Silver’s presentation listed Board and Management ownership at 16.9 percent, including Stephen Parsons at 9.2 percent. It also listed Australian and global institutions at 46.0 percent, including Scotia Asset Management at 9.1 percent and Sprott Inc. / Sprott Silver Miners & Physical ETF at 7.7 percent.

This is a strong ownership profile. Board and management ownership is meaningful, and institutional support is high for a junior silver developer. The Sprott participation is also a positive signal because silver-focused institutional capital can improve market visibility and funding access.

Ownership feel: strong. The company has aligned insiders, institutional support, and specialist precious-metals investors involved. That does not guarantee success, but it reduces the feeling that this is a low-quality retail-only promotion.

People / Management

David Southam

Non-Executive Chairman

David Southam is a CPA with more than 30 years of experience in accounting, operations, capital markets and finance across the resources and industrial sectors. He was previously Managing Director of Mincor Resources, Executive Director of Western Areas, and held senior executive roles at Brambles Group, ANZ Investment Bank and WMC Resources. He is also currently a Non-Executive Director of Ramelius Resources and Executive Chairman of Cygnus Metals.

Management feel: Southam gives Andean Silver strong capital markets, operating, and corporate credibility. His background is useful because Andean Silver is no longer just an exploration story. It is moving toward technical studies, funding decisions, and a potential restart pathway.

Jessie Liu-Ernsting

Non-Executive Director

Jessie Liu-Ernsting is a resources executive and engineer with 20 years of mining industry experience. She has held senior strategic, financial and technical roles at G Mining Ventures, Hudbay Minerals, Resource Capital Funds, and Canadian EPCM firms. She is also Chief Corporate Development Officer at FireFly Metals and a Director of PDAC and Aston Bay Holdings.

Management feel: Liu-Ernsting adds technical, finance, and corporate development depth. This is positive for a company that may eventually need strategic partnerships, financing, engineering review, and market positioning.

Ray Shorrocks

Non-Executive Director

Ray Shorrocks is the immediate past Executive Chairman of FireFly Metals, a current Non-Executive Director of Cygnus Metals, and was the founding Executive Chairman of Bellevue Gold. He has more than 30 years of experience in mining-sector corporate finance and has advised a wide range of resource companies.

Management feel: This is one of the strongest names on the board. Bellevue Gold was a notable Australian mining success story, and Shorrocks brings capital markets credibility. For a silver developer, this kind of network can matter a lot.

Carl Travaglini

Non-Executive Director

Carl Travaglini is a Chartered Accountant, Chartered Company Secretary and Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. He has over 18 years of experience in the resources sector across Australia, Canada and Africa, and has served in executive finance and company secretarial roles. He is also CFO of Midas Minerals and CFO / Joint Company Secretary of Cygnus Metals.

Management feel: Travaglini strengthens the finance, governance and compliance side of the board. This is important as the company scales from exploration to development.

Tim Laneyrie

Technical Director

Tim Laneyrie is a geologist with 19 years of industry experience. His recent background includes business development at Northern Star, where he evaluated project acquisitions and asset divestments, including the Saracen / Northern Star merger and Super Pit acquisition. He has also held senior positions with Saracen Minerals.

Management feel: Laneyrie is important because Cerro Bayo is both a technical and acquisition-driven story. His experience in evaluating mining assets is relevant for understanding what makes a project valuable to operators.

Matthew Allen

Chief Executive Officer

Matthew Allen is an FCPA with more than 25 years of experience in resources finance. He has experience in debt and equity funding solutions for resource development and the operation and management of listed public companies. He was previously CFO of Global Lithium Resources and Hastings Technology Metals.

Management feel: Allen gives Andean Silver financial and capital markets experience. That matters because the company will eventually need to finance technical studies, resource conversion, potential refurbishment, and any restart decision.

Damien Koerber

Chief Operating Officer

Damien Koerber has more than 30 years of experience in technical and management roles in exploration across Australia and Latin America, including Newcrest, Billiton, MIM and Mirasol Resources. He was involved in significant precious metals discoveries including Sunrise Dam and Tanami.

Management feel: Koerber adds real exploration and Latin America experience. This is useful because Cerro Bayo’s upside depends heavily on drilling, geological interpretation, and discovery execution.

Alvaro Fuentes

General Manager

Alvaro Fuentes has more than 20 years of experience in operations, finance and corporate management across Latin America and Australasia. He leads Andean Silver in Chile and oversees development of the Cerro Bayo project. His background includes permitting, stakeholder engagement and project execution. (Andean Silver)

Management feel: Fuentes is important because local execution in Chile will matter. Permitting, community relations, operating readiness and local stakeholder management can decide whether a restart plan moves smoothly or slowly.

Alex Forster

Exploration Manager

Alex Forster is an exploration geologist with over 13 years of experience in early-stage precious metals exploration across Africa, Latin America and Australia. She has held senior geological roles with Bellevue Gold and Bellavista Resources and has worked with Gold Fields Australia.

Management feel: Forster strengthens the exploration engine. This is important because Andean Silver’s near-term value creation depends heavily on drilling success and resource growth.

Risks / Catalysts / Timeline

Key Risks

Catalysts

Expected Timeline to Full Production

Valuation Summary

FCF Multiple Model at US$150/oz and US$200/oz Silver

This is a simplified free cash flow valuation model. It is not company guidance. It is designed only to show silver-price torque.

Important difference versus the Blackrock Silver template: Andean Silver does not yet have a public PEA or feasibility study with official annual production, AISC, capex, mine life or after-tax cash flow. Because of that, this model uses a rough restart scenario instead of company-published economics.

Illustrative assumptions

This model is aggressive and simplified. It is only useful for understanding leverage, not for setting a guaranteed target price.

Cerro Bayo FCF Model

US$150/oz Silver Scenario

Step 1 – Margin per ounce US$150 – US$20 AISC = US$130/oz

Step 2 – Pre-tax operating cash flow 4.0Moz x US$130 = US$520M

Step 3 – After haircut FCF estimate US$520M x 75 percent = US$390M/year

Cerro Bayo Valuation at US$150/oz Silver

US$200/oz Silver Scenario

Step 1 – Margin per ounce US$200 – US$20 AISC = US$180/oz

Step 2 – Pre-tax operating cash flow 4.0Moz x US$180 = US$720M

Step 3 – After haircut FCF estimate US$720M x 75 percent = US$540M/year

Cerro Bayo Valuation at US$200/oz Silver

Updated Valuation Summary Table

This valuation is highly aggressive and simplified. The real project value could be much lower if production is smaller, AISC is higher, capex is larger, financing is dilutive, permitting is slower, or mine restart execution is difficult. But it shows the key point clearly: if Cerro Bayo can restart at meaningful scale, Andean Silver has very strong silver torque.

Summary & Quick Scorecard

RT Rating, Commentary

Andean Silver is on our watchlist.

We rated this as 5 out of 5 stars.

Andean Silver ticks many of our checklist boxes: high-grade silver-gold resource, past-producing asset, existing infrastructure, strong management, insider alignment, institutional ownership, Sprott participation, and serious exploration upside. Cerro Bayo is exactly the type of silver asset that can become very powerful in a rising silver market because the project already has a large 111Moz AgEq resource and a history of real production.

The best part of the story is the combination of grade, infrastructure and growth. Many silver juniors have ounces but no plant. Others have exploration upside but no mining history. Andean Silver has both a historic mine and a resource base that still has room to grow.

The main weakness is that the company still does not have a public PEA, PFS or FS with official AISC, capex, production rate, mine life or after-tax NPV. That means the market is still pricing a story based on potential, not fully proven economics. The stock has already moved strongly, so investors need to be careful not to overpay before the technical studies confirm the restart case.

Overall, Andean Silver is one of the more attractive silver restart stories on the ASX. The upside can be large if Cerro Bayo proves it can restart quickly and grow into a multi-year high-grade silver-gold operation. But the next stage is critical: resource conversion, technical studies, restart economics and funding discipline.

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Originally written & published at https://www.rocketeller.com/andean-silver-this-asx-silver-restart-story-smart-money-is-loading-up-on-111moz-ageq-ready-infrastructure/