Last Update 22 Nov 25
🧭 Big-Picture View: AUMB vs the 5 Classic Failure Modes
🧨 1. CAPEX Overruns + Dilution Risk (Highest Risk Area)
Industry Reality:
Developers fail because restart capex or operating capital balloons, forcing massive dilution.
1911 Gold Reality:
✔ Positive:
- They already have a permitted 1,300 tpd mill, tailings facility, power, underground infrastructure — HUGE advantage (avoids $200–300M of new-build capex).
- Rehab work is ongoing; costs have been manageable so far.
❌ Still High Risk Because:
- Even with existing infrastructure, underground restart costs are unpredictable (ground support, backfill, pumping, ventilation upgrades).
- The company is small-cap (251M shares basic / 296M FD) — any capital shortfall means dilution.
- The PEA in Q1 2026 will reveal real capex/opex; right now it’s unknown. They may need working capital + development capex ($20–40M?) before hitting commercial production. A realistic ballpark is ~C$30–40 million of pre-production capital to restart True North, based on what similar Manitoba “existing-mill” underground gold projects
👉 Risk Rating for 1911 Gold: HIGH
What to watch:
- Size of capital needed after PEA.
- Whether bulk sample generates meaningful cash.
- Any equity offering below $0.15–0.20 (dilution danger zone).
🧨 2. Metallurgy & Recovery Risk (Medium-High)
Industry Reality:
Underground mines often fail because recoveries are worse than study assumptions.
1911 Gold Reality:
✔ Positive:
- True North already produced gold historically — metallurgy is known, not theoretical like many new mines.
- Existing mill configuration has processed similar ore.
❌ Risks:
- Historical operations struggled with vein variability and recovery swings.
- If the bulk sample (2026) shows lower recovery or higher grind requirements, AISC can blow past US$1,700+. Any new zones (San Antonio, Deep East, etc.) may not behave the same as old True North ore.
👉 Risk Rating: MEDIUM–HIGH
What to watch:
- Bulk sample results (grade reconciliation + recoveries).
- Any mention of “recovery optimization” → code for metallurgical issues.
🧨 3. Geological / Grade Risk (High)
Industry Reality:
This kills more underground mines than anything else.
1911 Gold Reality:
✔ Positive:
- True North deposit is known and has decades of drilling.
- They are targeting specific high-grade zones for bulk sample.
❌ But Risks Are Serious:
- Historic production had grade-control problems — narrow veins, variable widths.
- Resources need upgrading → PEA → FS. Nothing is NI 43-101 reserve-class yet.
- Bulk sample in 2026 could reveal grade lower than model → restart becomes uneconomic.
- Underground rehab always exposes issues: rock quality, dilution, stope stability.
👉 Risk Rating: HIGH
What to watch:
- Bulk sample head grade vs model grade.
- Any large “adjustments” to resource in Q1 2026 PEA.
🧨 4. Permitting & ESG Risk (Low–Medium)
Industry Reality:
Even permitted mines can run into environmental, tailings, or community issues.
1911 Gold Reality:
✔ Strong Position:
- Existing mine, existing permits, existing mill, existing tailings.
- This is a brownfield restart, not a new mine application.
❌ Remaining Risks:
- Tailings expansion may be needed if production ramps to 100k+ oz/year.
- Rehabilitation zones may need new underground water permits.
- Manitoba regulators can be strict on environmental discharge.
👉 Risk Rating: LOW–MEDIUM
What to watch:
- Any EA filings for expansion.
- Tailings facility audits.
🧨 5. Jurisdiction / Political Risk (Low)
Industry Reality:
Canada is stable, but costs/regulation can creep upward.
1911 Gold Reality (Manitoba):
- Manitoba is a top-tier mining jurisdiction.
- Low probability of political intervention.
- Government generally supportive of brownfield restarts.
👉 Risk Rating: LOW
What to watch:
- None major. Just normal environmental oversight.
>>> Final view: My main concern is with their capex & dilution. A realistic ballpark is ~C$30–40 million of pre-production capital to restart True North, based on what similar Manitoba “existing-mill” underground gold projects. But in today bull market environment, it shouldn't be a problem. Expected trial production start: ~mid-2026 (3‐5 months trial). Expected full production: Not formally announced yet based on modelling estimated maybe 2027-2028 for ramp up.
1911 Gold – Updated Snapshot (September 2025)
Latest verified facts
- The company commenced a PEA on the True North restart in late August 2025 with AMC Consultants; a short trial mining campaign (3–5 months) is planned to validate methods and economics ahead of a bulk sample. Newswire+1
- Corporate presentation (Sept 9, 2025) shows 262.32M shares outstanding (296.19M fully diluted) and ~C$15.2M cash including a recent financing. The investor “Stock Information” page lists ~251.26M shares but appears slightly older; use 262.32M basic for modeling. 1911 Gold+1
- Public materials reiterate a unique position at the True North mine & mill (permitted ~1,300 tpd) within the Rice Lake district and an intention to leverage existing infrastructure for a restart. 1911 Gold+1
Latest AISC
- 1911 Gold is not yet back in commercial production; there is no official AISC published for the restart. ($1,700/oz AISC for sensitivities is fine as a placeholder, but it is not company guidance.) Newswire
Reality-check on the user timeline (aligning with current disclosures)
- “PEA Q1 2026, bulk sample Q2 2026, PFS Q4 2027, production Q1 2027.” Based on the company’s Aug 28, 2025 PEA start and stated plan, a more consistent sequence is: PEA (initiated late-2025) → trial mining / bulk sample mid-2026 → economic decision & possible PFS into 2027 → construction decision thereafter. Production before PFS completion is unlikely; treat Q1 2027 production as optimistic unless the trial/bulk sample justifies an accelerated plan. Newswire+1
Updated risks
- Study/Timing risk: PEA only just started; outcomes on grade, recoveries, and capex/opex may shift, affecting start dates. Newswire
- Cost uncertainty: No AISC yet; inflation, power, labor, and underground development could push costs above placeholder assumptions.
- Financing risk: Bulk sample profits (if any) are uncertain; additional capital may be required, potentially dilutive despite your “no equity” plan.
- Restart execution: Underground restarts often encounter dilution, ground conditions, and ramp constraints that diverge from plans.
- Permitting/ESG: The site is permitted and in Canada, but trial mining and any plant/mine modifications still require regulatory steps. 1911 Gold
- Commodity price exposure: Sensitivities rely on very high gold/silver prices; downside compresses FCF and multiples.
Key catalysts (next 6–24 months)
- PEA completion (first formal restart economics). Newswire
- Trial mining / bulk sample results planned for mid-2026, providing reconciliation data and potential cash contribution. Junior Mining Network
- Additional drill results across True North targets that could grow or upgrade resources. Investing News Network (INN)
- Financing updates and any government support programs; clarity on construction decision path post-PEA/bulk sample. Junior Mining Network
Expected timeline (grounded in current disclosures)
- H2 2025: PEA in progress; underground delineation drilling continues. Newswire
- Mid-2026: Trial mining / bulk sample window (3–5 months) to validate the mine plan and economics. Junior Mining Network
- 2027: Depending on PEA outcomes and bulk sample results, advance to PFS/financing and a construction decision; first production could follow thereafter (not before studies unless an accelerated path is explicitly approved). Newswire
FCF sensitivities (copy-friendly; use your production/AISC path) Method: FCF ≈ annual ounces × (price − AISC). Assumptions: AISC = US$1,700/oz (placeholder), shares = 262,320,000 basic. These are operating proxies (pre-tax, pre-interest, pre-sustaining nuances) for torque illustration.
Gold = US$4,500/oz (margin = 2,800/oz)
- 45,000 oz (your 2027): FCF ≈ US$126M; 10× = US$1.26B → ~US$4.80/sh; 15× = US$7.20/sh; 20× = US$9.60/sh
- 70,000 oz (late-2028): FCF ≈ US$196M; 10× = US$1.96B → ~US$7.47/sh; 15× = US$11.20/sh; 20× = US$14.94/sh
- 100,000 oz (2029): FCF ≈ US$280M; 10× = US$2.80B → ~US$10.67/sh; 15× = US$16.00/sh; 20× = US$21.33/sh
- 120,000 oz (expanded mill): FCF ≈ US$336M; 10× = US$3.36B → ~US$12.80/sh; 15× = US$19.20/sh; 20× = US$25.60/sh
Gold = US$5,000/oz (margin = 3,300/oz)
- 45,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$148.5M; 10× = US$1.485B → ~US$5.66/sh; 15× = US$8.49/sh; 20× = US$11.32/sh
- 70,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$231.0M; 10× = US$2.31B → ~US$8.81/sh; 15× = US$13.22/sh; 20× = US$17.62/sh
- 100,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$330.0M; 10× = US$3.30B → ~US$12.58/sh; 15× = US$18.87/sh; 20× = US$25.16/sh
- 120,000 oz: FCF ≈ US$396.0M; 10× = US$3.96B → ~US$15.09/sh; 15× = US$22.63/sh; 20× = US$30.18/sh
Cash & funding notes
- Corporate presentation lists ~C$15.2M cash post financing (Sept 2025). Any “no dilution” plan assumes bulk-sample proceeds and non-dilutive debt suffice; treat that as aspirational until financing is finalized. 1911 Gold
Bottom line
- 1911 Gold has turned the corner from concept to formal economic work with a PEA underway and a trial mining / bulk-sample plan for mid-2026—the right de-risking steps before construction. With a current basic share count ~262.3M, the project shows strong torque at US$4,500–US$5,000 gold under your AISC/oz path—but outcomes hinge on PEA/PFS results, bulk-sample performance, financing, and execution. Newswire+1
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