Only way is up

Catalysts

• Primarily used as tungsten carbide for cutting tools and wear-resistant applications, it is essential in defense, aerospace, and electronics. I beleive that the three industries mentioned above could move sales or earnings meaningfully.
• Production Dominance: China, Vietnam, and Russia are the leading suppliers, accounting for over 90% of global production.
• Reserves: Total world reserves are roughly 3,200,000 tonnes, with the largest in China.

  Assumptions

  • I think that with the global production being roughly 84,000–98,000 tonnes annually. The market faces a severe deficit in 2026, with Chinese export volumes of intermediate products like Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) falling significantly. And with China controling the majority of supply, and new Western mining projects in Australia, Spain, and North America are attempting to reduce reliance, supply still remains remains constrained. This is why I think revenue will continue to grow and be much higher in 5 years time
  • With the market expected to remain tight, with high prices supported by continued supply restrictions. While new non-Chinese mining capacity is planned, it may take until late 2025 or 2026 for this to significantly impact supply.

  Risks

  • I think with the surging demand in Defense & Technology, Semiconductors & chips required for AI, as well as Japanese suppliers notifying Korean manufacturers of disruption, reports the risks are very low

  Valuation

  • I think with Tungsten prices having surged dramatically, and reports indicating a ~600% increase over the past 12 months, driven by increased restrictions. And on top of that the global tungsten market being valued at approximately US$16 billion, which is roughly 5% of the copper market, then you add in the demand required for defense & Technology, aerospace & electronics and Semiconductors & chips, coupled with the lack of new mines over the past 40 years, the valuation is very promising for the next 3, 5 or 10 years time.