Last Update 05 Dec 25
Fair value Increased 1.66%ANA: Downgrades And 2026 Earnings Cliff Fears Will Shape Outlook
Analysts have nudged their blended price target for Acciona modestly higher to about EUR 162 from roughly EUR 159, reflecting a slightly lower discount rate and marginally improved long term growth assumptions, even as recent downgrades flag an approaching earnings cliff and question how much growth is being priced into its concession assets.
Analyst Commentary
Street research has turned more cautious on Acciona, with a string of downgrades highlighting concerns about the durability of earnings beyond the current project cycle and the degree of growth already embedded in consensus expectations and valuation multiples.
At the same time, price targets remain broadly clustered around or above the revised blended target. This suggests that while risk perception has increased, analysts still see scope for value if execution on long term growth plans is delivered.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts point out that most target prices still sit close to, or above, the current blended target, implying residual upside if Acciona can navigate the expected earnings slowdown.
- Some see the lower discount rate and improved long term growth assumptions as justified by the company’s infrastructure and concession pipeline, which could support cash flow visibility beyond 2026.
- The recalibration of expectations is viewed by some as healthy, potentially setting a more achievable bar for execution and reducing the risk of sharp valuation resets.
- Where target prices remain in the mid to high EUR 100s, bullish analysts argue that the market may be underestimating Acciona’s ability to recycle capital and reinvest into higher return opportunities.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts warn of an earnings cliff around 2026, arguing that current valuations do not fully reflect the step down in profitability once major projects roll off.
- There is concern that the market is pricing in too much growth from concession assets, leaving limited margin for error if project ramp ups, traffic, or regulatory outcomes disappoint.
- Recent rating cuts from Buy or Neutral to more cautious stances signal a shift in focus from growth to capital discipline and cash generation, which could cap multiple expansion.
- Some expect that, as the growth premium compresses, Acciona’s shares could de rate closer to peers, particularly if management guidance is revised or new project awards slow.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: nudged slightly higher from €159.10 to about €161.74, reflecting modestly more constructive long term assumptions.
- Discount Rate: edged down marginally from roughly 8.82 percent to about 8.81 percent, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth: revised to be slightly less negative, improving from around minus 0.96 percent to roughly minus 0.94 percent.
- Net Profit Margin: trimmed modestly from about 2.34 percent to roughly 2.31 percent, pointing to a small reduction in expected profitability.
- Future P/E: increased from approximately 22.5x to about 23.1x, implying a minor uplift in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Acciona's strong infrastructure backlog and renewable energy expansion set a foundation for revenue and operating margin growth through large-scale projects.
- Geographic and technological diversification in renewables and infrastructure mitigate risks, offering stable revenue and higher margins in the long term.
- ACCIONA Energia faces challenges from market volatility, low renewable energy prices, asset dependency, policy risks, and competition, potentially impacting profitability and growth.
Catalysts
About Acciona- Engages in the energy, infrastructure, and other businesses in Spain and internationally.
- ACCIONA's infrastructure backlog reached an all-time high of €54 billion, providing a strong foundation for future revenue growth through large-scale projects and concession awards. This is expected to drive an increase in revenue and operating margins as projects come to fruition.
- ACCIONA Energia's addition of 2 gigawatts of capacity in 2024, following 1.7 gigawatts in 2023, highlights a significant expansion of its renewable energy portfolio. New capacity, particularly from the MacIntyre wind farm, is likely to enhance revenue and EBITDA growth as these projects become operational.
- Successful asset rotation activities in the energy sector, with proceeds of €1.3 billion so far, are aimed at optimizing the portfolio and unlocking value. This strategy is expected to result in gains that enhance earnings and strengthen the balance sheet.
- Nordex's turnaround is evidenced by improved profit margins and a 20% growth in its order book. Its recovery and expansion in the renewables sector position it for stronger net margins and contributions to overall earnings growth.
- ACCIONA's focus on geographic and technological diversification in its renewable energy and infrastructure projects mitigates market risks and enhances growth prospects. This strategic positioning is likely to improve revenue stability and contribute to higher margins over the medium to long term.
Acciona Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Acciona's revenue will decrease by 0.8% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 3.8% today to 2.4% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach €498.6 million (and earnings per share of €8.14) by about September 2028, down from €832.0 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 21.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from 10.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Electric Utilities industry at 15.1x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.14% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.34%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Acciona Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The challenging market in Spain during the first half of the year required ACCIONA Energia to revise down their EBITDA expectations, which initially suggests volatility and uncertainty that could negatively impact future revenue generation if such conditions persist.
- The issue of historically low prices and new generation paradigms bringing challenges like curtailments in the renewable energy sector might affect the profitability and net margins of ACCIONA Energia in the future.
- The rotation of assets as part of a strategy required for refinancing and maintaining investment-grade ratings, particularly in light of high leverage, indicates a dependency on asset disposals for liquidity, which could pressure earnings or net margins if market conditions for asset sales worsen.
- Exposure to energy policy volatility in the U.S. and changes in political environments can influence the returns on ACCIONA Energia's investments, potentially impacting revenue or earnings if current policy support for renewable energies declines.
- Competition from more mature or oversaturated renewable markets, coupled with potential delays or cost overruns in projects, embodies execution risks that could affect net margins or revenue, particularly if investment returns do not align with expectations in these regions.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of €154.118 for Acciona based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €202.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €105.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €21.2 billion, earnings will come to €498.6 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 21.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.
- Given the current share price of €165.1, the analyst price target of €154.12 is 7.1% lower. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
