EV Adoption And SiC Leadership Will Build Future Resilience

Key Takeaways

• Leadership in electric vehicles, industrial automation, and AI data center power solutions is fueling design wins, supporting sustained growth and improved margins.
  
• Strategic cost savings, advanced material investments, and local manufacturing initiatives strengthen market share and long-term revenue stability as global demand evolves.
  
• Rising competition in China, inventory imbalances, restructuring challenges, automotive sector volatility, and adverse currency movements could pressure margins and create earnings uncertainty.

Catalysts

Designs, develops, manufactures, and sells semiconductor products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific.

• The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles and hybrid cars
• especially STMicroelectronics' leadership in silicon carbide (SiC) and smart power solutions
• is driving design wins and high-volume programs, positioning the company for significant future revenue growth and margin expansion as EV adoption rates recover and competition stabilizes.
  
• The industrial automation rebound, strengthening general-purpose microcontroller sales, and broad design-in activity across applications like power systems, solar inverters, and data center power solutions (including collaboration with NVIDIA on AI data centers) are reinvigorating top-line growth and improving visibility on sustained future earnings.
  
• The normalization of distribution channel inventories, with genuine end-market demand driving industrial segment growth rather than just inventory replenishment, points to a healthy demand environment that should reduce unused capacity charges and structurally improve gross margins in coming quarters.
  
• The company's ongoing footprint reshaping and cost-base resizing initiatives-expected to deliver substantial annual cost savings by 2027-will improve operational leverage and net margins over the medium term, especially as revenues scale with new product ramps.
  
• Investments in next-generation SiC and GaN, local manufacturing initiatives ("China for China"), and deep engagement with Tier-1 customers/large OEMs position STM to capture incremental market share and support future revenue stability, even as global supply chains diversify and decarbonization efforts fuel long-term demand.

STMicroelectronics Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming STMicroelectronics's revenue will grow by 9.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 5.5% today to 14.1% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.2 billion (and earnings per share of $2.45) by about September 2028, up from $651.0 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $1.6 billion.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 15.5x on those 2028 earnings, down from 34.8x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Semiconductor industry at 33.4x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.75% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

STMicroelectronics Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Intensifying competition and price pressure in China-particularly in silicon carbide (SiC) products-could erode margins, especially as Chinese OEMs are increasingly encouraged to use domestically designed and manufactured chips; this threatens revenue growth and profitability due to significant exposure (13–14% of total revenue) to Chinese customers.
  
• Persistent and still-elevated inventory levels across certain product families and geographies indicate lingering demand-supply imbalances, risking future periods of lower sales and margin compression as excess inventory is worked down, potentially lowering earnings and cash flow.
  
• STMicroelectronics is currently undergoing a significant restructuring and manufacturing reshaping program, incurring substantial impairment and restructuring charges; these changes carry execution risk and may result in continued periods of lower manufacturing efficiency and underutilization, impacting net margins.
  
• The automotive segment, a major revenue driver, remains volatile due to macro uncertainty, rapidly shifting demand between battery electric and hybrid vehicles, ongoing changes in global EV adoption projections, as well as customer-specific order fluctuations; this could generate earnings volatility and make long-term growth less predictable.
  
• Sustained foreign exchange headwinds-particularly a weakening US dollar relative to the euro-are materially impacting gross margin and will continue to do so, constraining net earnings and potentially offsetting gains from operational improvements or top-line growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of €25.838 for STMicroelectronics based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €31.05, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €20.09.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $15.5 billion, earnings will come to $2.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 15.5x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
• Given the current share price of €21.8, the analyst price target of €25.84 is 15.6% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.