Last Update 27 Nov 25
Fair value Increased 1.91%ABCB: Core Earnings Momentum And Buybacks Will Sustain Confidence Despite Sector Risks
Analysts have increased their price target for Ameris Bancorp from $80.60 to $82.14. They cite strong core earnings, continued solid loan growth, and a resilient profitability outlook as key factors supporting the upward revision.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst commentary points to a mix of optimism and caution in evaluating Ameris Bancorp's outlook, largely influenced by recent quarterly performance and broader market trends.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight consistent core earnings and the company's track record of quarterly results aligning with expectations.
- Solid loan growth remains a central positive factor, reflecting Ameris Bancorp's ability to capture new business opportunities while managing risk.
- Resilient profitability is seen as a distinguishing feature, particularly in a period where many financial institutions face earnings pressure.
- Some analysts believe that, despite market volatility, the company's strong earnings profile positions its shares for continued investor interest and potential valuation upside.
- Bearish analysts express concerns about the broader environment, where deal-focused banks have seen stock prices suffer even with stable fundamentals.
- Heightened investor scrutiny in the sector could lead to increased volatility and downward pressure on valuation, even for well-performing banks.
- Execution risk remains, with ongoing uncertainty around loan growth sustainability and shifts in market sentiment potentially weighing on future results.
What's in the News
- Ameris Bancorp reported net charge-offs of $7.45 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. This represents an improvement compared to $8.07 million a year ago (Key Developments).
- Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 125,900 shares for $8.48 million, completing the repurchase of over 2.1 million shares under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).
- On October 20, 2025, Ameris Bancorp announced an increase in its equity buyback plan authorization to $200 million and extended its plan duration through October 31, 2026 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has increased from $80.60 to $82.14, reflecting a modest upward revision.
- Discount Rate has remained virtually unchanged at 6.96%.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has declined slightly, moving from 8.25% to 8.05%.
- Net Profit Margin has risen marginally from 32.60% to 32.76%.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased from 13.71x to 13.98x. This indicates a higher expected valuation multiple.
Key Takeaways
- Economic and population growth in core Southeastern markets, alongside digital banking enhancements, are driving sustained deposit and loan growth, fostering market share expansion.
- Strong asset quality and conservative loan practices are stabilizing earnings, while industry disruption and consolidation open avenues for organic and acquisition-driven growth.
- Ameris Bancorp's strategic focus on aggressive growth in cyclical, concentrated markets exposes it to margin compression, revenue volatility, and heightened execution and regional economic risks.
Catalysts
About Ameris Bancorp- Operates as the bank holding company for Ameris Bank that provides range of banking services to retail and commercial customers.
- The company is benefitting from strong population migration and economic growth in its core Southeastern markets, providing a tailwind for ongoing loan and deposit growth, which is expected to drive higher revenue and expand market share.
- Accelerating digital banking enhancements and emphasis on treasury management are enabling Ameris to acquire and retain more granular, low-cost, noninterest-bearing deposits, supporting net interest margin sustainability and efficiency improvements.
- Increased productivity and expansion of relationship bankers, combined with strategic positioning in growth areas, are allowing Ameris to capture greater commercial and SMB lending opportunities, fueling long-term organic revenue and earnings growth.
- Robust asset quality and conservative loan portfolio management are providing stability in credit costs, supporting consistent earnings and defending against earnings volatility, which should bolster long-term tangible book value growth.
- Industry disruption and bank consolidation in the Southeast create further potential for Ameris to capitalize on growth opportunities (both organic and selective M&A), leveraging strong capital and scale to enhance future earnings and efficiency ratios.
Ameris Bancorp Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Ameris Bancorp's revenue will grow by 8.8% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 35.1% today to 30.5% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach $438.2 million (and earnings per share of $6.37) by about September 2028, up from $391.4 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 14.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from 12.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Banks industry at 11.9x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.71% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.78%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Ameris Bancorp Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Ameris Bancorp is facing heightened competition for both loans and deposits, with increasing pressure to pay up for deposit growth and more aggressive competitor behavior, which may compress net interest margins and affect overall earnings.
- The company's strong loan growth is currently centered in cyclical sectors like mortgage warehouse lending, which are sensitive to interest rate and housing market cycles; a weakening or slowing in these cycles or an unexpected downturn could directly impact revenue stability and future loan growth.
- Sustained low or volatile interest rate environments and an industry-wide normalization of margins are likely to exert downward pressure on Ameris's net interest margin (NIM) over time, challenging profitability and limiting net margin expansion as projected by management.
- Overreliance on growth in key Southeastern markets, combined with limited geographic diversification, increases Ameris Bancorp's vulnerability to regional economic downturns or demographic shifts, potentially leading to lower loan and deposit growth and affecting long-term revenue prospects.
- The company's aggressive organic expansion strategy, including rapid hiring of new revenue generators and potential M&A activity, brings execution and integration risk that could lead to increased operating costs or cultural misalignments, adversely impacting efficiency ratios and net margins.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of $77.667 for Ameris Bancorp based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $1.4 billion, earnings will come to $438.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 14.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
- Given the current share price of $73.38, the analyst price target of $77.67 is 5.5% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Read more narratives
There are no other narratives for this company.
View all narratives