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#1 Silver Play with Positive Cashflow Gold Miner (Top Notch Team)

Published
26 Sep 24
Updated
03 Feb 26
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1.1k
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RockeTeller's Fair Value
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Author's Valuation

CA$20695.7% undervalued intrinsic discount

RockeTeller's Fair Value

Last Update 03 Feb 26

Fair value Increased 87%

2026 Latest Number

🪙 Discovery Silver Corp. (TSX: DSV)

Discovery Silver is now a diversified precious-metals story: a producing Canadian gold complex (Porcupine, Timmins camp) plus a tier-1, large-scale silver development project (Cordero, Mexico). Near-term value is being driven by Porcupine cash flow + drilling/resource upgrades, while the long-duration upside comes from permitting + construction decision + build at Cordero. (Discovery Silver Corp.)

📌 Capital Structure

🧾 Shares Outstanding (latest available): ~807.76M (as of Dec 31, 2025, OTC Markets)

🧾 Company website snapshot (older): 801M shares (as of May 13, 2025)

🧾 Fully diluted (older): ~816M (May 13, 2025)

⛏️ Cost Structure (Gold + Silver)

1) Porcupine Gold Operations (Canada) — latest AISC reportedAISC: US$1,734/oz sold (Q3 2025) (Discovery Silver Corp.)

2) Cordero Silver Project (Mexico) — feasibility study AISCAISC: < US$12.50/oz AgEq (first 8 years) and < US$13.50/oz AgEq (LOM) (Discovery Silver Corp.)

🧩 Projects Overview & “Grade Feel”

  1. Porcupine Operations (Producing Gold Complex)Status: ✅ Producer Assets include: Hoyle Pond, Borden, Pamour, Hollinger, Dome Mine + Dome Mill.Grade snapshots (from 2024 operating stats on the project page):• Mill feed avg: 3.26 g/t Au (2.90 Mt processed)Borden: 6.54 g/t Au (666 kt processed)Hoyle Pond: 10.8 g/t Au (222 kt processed)Hollinger (2024 before mining concluded): 1.35 g/t Au (2.01 Mt processed)Grade feel: Real, high-grade underground contribution (Hoyle/Borden) + blend/scale from the wider camp.
  2. Cordero (Ag–Au–Pb–Zn Development Project)Status: 🚧 Advanced development (FS complete; key permit pending)Reserves (Feb 2024 FS): 327 Mt @ 29 g/t Ag, 0.08 g/t Au, 0.41% Pb, 0.72% Zn (Total Proven+Probable)Resources (Feb 2024 update): Total M&I 719 Mt @ 21 g/t Ag, 0.06 g/t Au, 0.30% Pb, 0.57% Zn (AgEq grade shown on the page too)Grade feel: Bulk-tonnage, lower-grade silver, economics driven by scale + by-products (AgEq framework).

⚠️ Key Risks (DSV)

🏗️ Cordero execution + financing risk: large initial capex; construction decision timing matters

🧾 Permitting risk (Mexico): environmental approval (“MIA”) timing is a major gating item

💸 Dilution / capital structure risk: already ~808M shares; future build funding could add more

⛏️ Operating risk at Porcupine: cost inflation, grade variability, sustaining capex needs (AISC is good now, but can move)

🧪 Metallurgy / concentrate terms (Cordero): payable terms/TCs matter for AgEq margins

🗺️ Jurisdiction mix: Canada operational stability vs. Mexico permitting/social-license path

⚡ Catalysts (from “now” → next 12–18 months)

Porcupine (Canada):

• Completion of the ~140,000 m drill program (expected early 2026) and updated technical report in 2026

Cordero (Mexico):

MIA environmental approval decision (company said it completed the technical review process and was awaiting approval as of Nov 2025)

• Continued de-risking on power, water, permitting and financing pathways

🗺️ Expected Timeline (Feb 2026 → full production)

Porcupine: already producing today (ongoing optimization + growth via drilling/resource conversion).

Cordero (best-effort schedule using stated steps + FS construction duration):

2026: MIA approval (timing unknown), final permitting steps, FEED/EPCM readiness, financing package

Construction duration: FS states ~2-year construction period for initial build capex. ➡️ If a construction decision lands in 2026, a reasonable inference is first production ~2028 (then ramp-up to steady-state after commissioning). (This is timing logic from the FS “2-year build” statement; the exact date depends on permit + financing close.)

📊 Re-Valued “FCF” Scenarios

  • Silver = US$150 and US$200
  • Gold = US$6,000
  • Keep same production + AISC inputs
  • Show results in CAD per share, FX: 1 USD = 1.366 CAD Shares: 807.8M (latest available)
  • Same multiples: ×10 / ×15 / ×20

🥇 Porcupine Gold (Producer)

  • Production: 282,000 oz/yr
  • AISC: US$1,734/oz

🥈 Cordero Silver (FS basis)

  • Production: ~37 Moz AgEq / yr (Years 1–12 avg)
  • AISC: US$12.50/oz AgEq

🥇 $6,000 Gold + 🥈 $150 Silver

Per-share base (1×) = 2.04 + 8.60 ≈ C$10.64

  • 10× → C$106.4/sh
  • 15× → C$159.5/sh
  • 20× → C$212.7/sh

🥇 $6,000 Gold + 🥈 $200 Silver

Per-share base (1×) = 2.04 + 11.73 ≈ C$13.77

  • 10× → C$137.7/sh
  • 15× → C$206.5/sh
  • 20× → C$275.3/sh

🎯 Quick Scorecard

  1. Management✅ Superb, proven operator leadership, the best in the business I can find.
  2. High Grade✅ Gold side: Hoyle/Borden are meaningfully high grade❌ Silver side: Cordero is big/long-life, not a high-grade silver discovery
  3. Share Structure Discipline⚠️ Heavier structure (~808M shares), and Cordero funding could add more.
  4. Jurisdiction✅ Canada producer base in Ontario⚠️ Mexico permitting path (MIA) is the key gating catalyst/risk

⭐ Final Rating, Commentary

★★★★★ (5 / 5 Stars). DSV is already a gold cash-flow story plus a giant silver optionality call. If your core thesis is macro precious-metals torque.

DSV gives you:

• near-term producer re-rating + drilling-driven upgrades in Canada.

• long-duration Cordero permit → build → commissioning upside in Mexico.

🪙 Discovery Silver Corp. (TSX: DSV)

Discovery Silver is now a diversified precious-metals story: a producing Canadian gold complex (Porcupine, Timmins camp) plus a tier-1, large-scale silver development project (Cordero, Mexico). Near-term value is being driven by Porcupine cash flow + drilling/resource upgrades, while the long-duration upside comes from permitting + construction decision + build at Cordero. (Discovery Silver Corp.)

📌 Capital Structure

🧾 Shares Outstanding (latest available): ~807.76M (as of Dec 31, 2025, OTC Markets)

🧾 Company website snapshot (older): 801M shares (as of May 13, 2025)

🧾 Fully diluted (older): ~816M (May 13, 2025)

⛏️ Cost Structure (Gold + Silver)

1) Porcupine Gold Operations (Canada) — latest AISC reportedAISC: US$1,734/oz sold (Q3 2025) (Discovery Silver Corp.)

2) Cordero Silver Project (Mexico) — feasibility study AISCAISC: < US$12.50/oz AgEq (first 8 years) and < US$13.50/oz AgEq (LOM) (Discovery Silver Corp.)

🧩 Projects Overview & “Grade Feel”

  1. Porcupine Operations (Producing Gold Complex)Status: ✅ Producer Assets include: Hoyle Pond, Borden, Pamour, Hollinger, Dome Mine + Dome Mill.Grade snapshots (from 2024 operating stats on the project page):• Mill feed avg: 3.26 g/t Au (2.90 Mt processed)Borden: 6.54 g/t Au (666 kt processed)Hoyle Pond: 10.8 g/t Au (222 kt processed)Hollinger (2024 before mining concluded): 1.35 g/t Au (2.01 Mt processed)Grade feel: Real, high-grade underground contribution (Hoyle/Borden) + blend/scale from the wider camp.
  2. Cordero (Ag–Au–Pb–Zn Development Project)Status: 🚧 Advanced development (FS complete; key permit pending)Reserves (Feb 2024 FS): 327 Mt @ 29 g/t Ag, 0.08 g/t Au, 0.41% Pb, 0.72% Zn (Total Proven+Probable)Resources (Feb 2024 update): Total M&I 719 Mt @ 21 g/t Ag, 0.06 g/t Au, 0.30% Pb, 0.57% Zn (AgEq grade shown on the page too)Grade feel: Bulk-tonnage, lower-grade silver, economics driven by scale + by-products (AgEq framework).

⚠️ Key Risks (DSV)

🏗️ Cordero execution + financing risk: large initial capex; construction decision timing matters

🧾 Permitting risk (Mexico): environmental approval (“MIA”) timing is a major gating item

💸 Dilution / capital structure risk: already ~808M shares; future build funding could add more

⛏️ Operating risk at Porcupine: cost inflation, grade variability, sustaining capex needs (AISC is good now, but can move)

🧪 Metallurgy / concentrate terms (Cordero): payable terms/TCs matter for AgEq margins

🗺️ Jurisdiction mix: Canada operational stability vs. Mexico permitting/social-license path

⚡ Catalysts (from “now” → next 12–18 months)

Porcupine (Canada):

• Completion of the ~140,000 m drill program (expected early 2026) and updated technical report in 2026

Cordero (Mexico):

MIA environmental approval decision (company said it completed the technical review process and was awaiting approval as of Nov 2025)

• Continued de-risking on power, water, permitting and financing pathways

🗺️ Expected Timeline (Feb 2026 → full production)

Porcupine: already producing today (ongoing optimization + growth via drilling/resource conversion).

Cordero (best-effort schedule using stated steps + FS construction duration):

2026: MIA approval (timing unknown), final permitting steps, FEED/EPCM readiness, financing package

Construction duration: FS states ~2-year construction period for initial build capex. ➡️ If a construction decision lands in 2026, a reasonable inference is first production ~2028 (then ramp-up to steady-state after commissioning). (This is timing logic from the FS “2-year build” statement; the exact date depends on permit + financing close.)

📊 Re-Valued “FCF” Scenarios

  • Silver = US$150 and US$200
  • Gold = US$6,000
  • Keep same production + AISC inputs
  • Show results in CAD per share, FX: 1 USD = 1.366 CAD Shares: 807.8M (latest available)
  • Same multiples: ×10 / ×15 / ×20

🥇 Porcupine Gold (Producer)

  • Production: 282,000 oz/yr
  • AISC: US$1,734/oz

🥈 Cordero Silver (FS basis)

  • Production: ~37 Moz AgEq / yr (Years 1–12 avg)
  • AISC: US$12.50/oz AgEq

🥇 $6,000 Gold + 🥈 $150 Silver

Per-share base (1×) = 2.04 + 8.60 ≈ C$10.64

  • 10× → C$106.4/sh
  • 15× → C$159.5/sh
  • 20× → C$212.7/sh

🥇 $6,000 Gold + 🥈 $200 Silver

Per-share base (1×) = 2.04 + 11.73 ≈ C$13.77

  • 10× → C$137.7/sh
  • 15× → C$206.5/sh
  • 20× → C$275.3/sh

🎯 Quick Scorecard

  1. Management✅ Superb, proven operator leadership, the best in the business I can find.
  2. High Grade✅ Gold side: Hoyle/Borden are meaningfully high grade❌ Silver side: Cordero is big/long-life, not a high-grade silver discovery
  3. Share Structure Discipline⚠️ Heavier structure (~808M shares), and Cordero funding could add more.
  4. Jurisdiction✅ Canada producer base in Ontario⚠️ Mexico permitting path (MIA) is the key gating catalyst/risk

⭐ Final Rating, Commentary

★★★★★ (5 / 5 Stars). DSV is already a gold cash-flow story plus a giant silver optionality call. If your core thesis is macro precious-metals torque.

DSV gives you:

• near-term producer re-rating + drilling-driven upgrades in Canada.

• long-duration Cordero permit → build → commissioning upside in Mexico.

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Disclaimer

The user RockeTeller has a position in TSX:DSV. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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