Last Update 09 Jul 26
Nintendo will phase out switch 1 in Europe by 20207
Nintendo's phase out of switch 1 in Europe during 2027 will affect sales. The 200 Million units threshold of Switch 1 + 2 will still be hit in 2027. How fast retailers will sell through remaining stock remains to be seen.
Nintendo currently holds a competitive advantage because the unit price of the switch 2 undercuts the steam deck significantly. Apparently supplier arrangements have secured the supply of LPDDR5X 12 gb modules. The absence of GTA VI on the console during the holiday poses a significant risk. Currently the switch 2 is not serving the casual audience. Casual players might not opt for a switch 2 and stay with their switch 1. The switch 2 seems to target a more dedicated audience which overlaps with it's competitors namely ps5 and xbox. PlayStation 6 launch in 2027 may pose a risk. In the handheld and hybrid division Nintendo is the Monopoly with more than 90% of the market share. Sony and Microsoft have announced price increases higher than the price increases of Nintendo which puts Nintendo at the lowest barrier of entry having not only the cheaper switch 2 but also offering the switch 1 which is the only console at a reasonable price value. The 4 Gb of ram in he switch 1 helps to keep cost low. Housholds seem to purchase multiple devices. The software lineup for 2026 is rather weak with it's only blockbuster being Ocarina of Time. New entry Tomodachi Life caters to the female audience with good sales. In 2027 however Pokemon Wind and Waves as well as some unannounced mainline titles will drive sales. Therefore sales and revenue will increase in 2027. The effects of Nintendo being significantly cheaper than it's competitors through successful supply chain management and fair value product design still has to be quantified and will crystalize during the first 2 quarters of 2027. Total installment base across switch 1 and 2 will hit 200 million devices in 2027. The movie production serves as a complementary marketing tool also leading to increased sales of software and hardware. Further research needs to be done to pinpoint the exact numbers.
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