Colleague Level AI Agents And Multimodal Content Will Support A Fair Long Term Outlook

Catalysts

About MiniMax Group

MiniMax Group develops large scale AI models and agent products across language, video, speech and music for global enterprises, developers and consumers.

What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

• Broad adoption of coding assistants and colleague level AI agents in software development is increasing token use on the M2 series. This can support higher Open Platform revenue and better gross profit density as usage scales faster than fixed costs.
• Expansion into non-coding workplace tasks like data analysis, financial modeling and presentation work through MiniMax Agent and Expert Agents widens the paid user base. This can support recurring revenue growth and improve the path from adjusted net loss toward stronger earnings.
• Growing demand for cost efficient intelligence, reflected in more than 50% lower inference compute cost per million tokens and lower Hailuo video latency, supports more price competitive offerings that can protect gross margin while keeping unit economics attractive.
• Global distribution through partners such as Google Vertex AI, Microsoft Azure and large coding platforms like OpenCode and KiloCode increases exposure to international customers. This can add scale to ARR and help spread infrastructure and R&D expenses over a larger revenue base.
• Ongoing shift toward multimodal creation in video, speech and music, supported by models like Hailuo 2.3, Speech 2.6 and Music 2.5, positions MiniMax to capture spend from creators and enterprises seeking richer content formats. This can support higher usage based revenue and potentially lift net margins if compute efficiency gains continue.

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

• Analysts are assuming MiniMax Group's revenue will grow by 189.1% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts are not forecasting that MiniMax Group will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate MiniMax Group's profit margin will increase from -2368.0% to the average HK Software industry of 7.3% in 3 years.
• If MiniMax Group's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $139.7 million (and earnings per share of $1.11) by about March 2029, up from -$1.9 billion today.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 161.3x on those 2029 earnings, up from -21.3x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the HK Software industry at 13.1x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 5.08% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.25%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

• MiniMax is positioning itself as an AI platform company with full modality models in language, video, speech and music, and is already integrated with global partners such as Google Vertex AI, Microsoft Azure and leading coding platforms, so if this platform approach gains wider adoption, revenue and ARR could grow faster than expected.
• The company reported 2025 revenue of US$79 million with ARR already above US$150 million by February 2026 and a very large year over year gross profit increase to US$20 million, so if this monetization momentum continues from higher token usage and broader product uptake, earnings and net margins could improve more than the current loss profile implies.
• Management is heavily investing in R&D with a focus on rapid model iteration, full modality integration and AI-native internal workflows that are already used by nearly 90% of employees. If these efforts keep pushing cost per token lower and speed higher, gross margin and operating leverage could strengthen over time.
• MiniMax is targeting long term trends such as colleague level coding agents, broader workplace agents and multimodal content that could lift token volumes by one to two orders of magnitude. Any meaningful success in these areas could support higher revenue density and potentially better earnings than a flat share price scenario would reflect.
• International markets already account for more than 70% of 2025 revenue, with meaningful presence across over 200 countries and regions. Deeper penetration of these markets or new use cases through products like MiniMax Agent and Expert Agents could widen the paying user base and support higher revenue growth and improved net margins.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

• The analysts have a consensus price target of HK$1104.24 for MiniMax Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
  
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of HK$1400.29, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just HK$992.96.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $1.9 billion, earnings will come to $139.7 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 161.3x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of HK$1010.0, the analyst price target of HK$1104.24 is 8.5% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.