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Bullish and loaded with it at avg price of $1.54

Published
12 Nov 25
Views
87
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mjb11's Fair Value
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1Y
239.5%
7D
9.8%

Author's Valuation

CA$14.3943.8% undervalued intrinsic discount

mjb11's Fair Value

The numbers were not great, as Mt Polley copper slipped a bit, as predicted. That said, they did not issue new shares, but forced the convertible a year early. How could they do that? Well, it was held 100% by Norman Murray Edwards, who has carried the company and owns almost 50% of the stock. He did not need to do this, and gave up the coupon to reduce costs. Likely they are looking to get more permanent financing at more attractive levels, as straight debt had a 12% coupon, most of which Edwars also owned. In addition, they retired somewhere near $200 million in 12% debt. The real story, however, is the Red Chris mine, which has a pre-feasibility study on the block cave future of the mine, put out by Newcrest ,who owned 70% of the mine before the Newmont takeover. Newmont has determined this to be a Tier 1 mine. At peak, starting in FY 29, and running for 6 years at peak level, it is expected to produce 80,000 metric tons of copper annually, and 316 ozs. of gold. This year, the estimate(not underground) the mine will produce 80 million lbs of copper and 86,000 ozs. of gold, so the new target is 176 million lbs of copper or 96 million additional lbs. And the gold, will be an additional 230,000 ozs. Imperial gets 30%, so the new production will add, for Imperial 95,000 ozs of gold and 29 million lbs of copper. At today's prices, let's say $3,500 for gold and $4.50 for copper(like Q3), this will add $332,500,000 for gold revenues and $150,000,000 in copper revenues. This is more than a 50% increase from today. The pre feasibility study can now be obtained only from Newmont's website by searching for it by name. Newmont reports all revenue as gold or gold equivalent. Imperial reports all revenues as copper or copper equivalent.

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Disclaimer

The user mjb11 holds no position in TSX:III. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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