Last Update 07 Jan 26

BITF: Panther Creek Project Financing Will Drive Future AI And HPC Expansion

Narrative Update

The analyst price target on Bitfarms has been revised higher to $7.00 from a prior range around $3.00, as analysts factor in updated assumptions for high performance computing and AI related power demand, modestly adjust discount rates and profitability expectations, and point to the company's growing project pipeline as support for the new valuation framework.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates point to a more constructive stance on Bitfarms, with higher price targets tied to the company’s growing high performance computing and AI infrastructure plans and financing progress.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts link the new US$7 price targets to updated assumptions for high performance computing focused companies. Revised estimates and valuation work have lifted peer price targets on average by 78% and 2026 forecasts by 5%.
Analysts highlight Bitfarms’ 1.3 GW development pipeline as aligned with hyperscaler demand. This is viewed as positioning the company as an underappreciated way for investors to gain exposure to the next wave of U.S. AI and HPC infrastructure buildout.
The conversion of the US$300m Macquarie facility to project level financing, together with the additional US$50m draw to accelerate Phase 1 of the 350 MW Panther Creek campus, is seen as positive for execution on growth projects and capital access.
Some bullish analysts also point to broader AI related power and data center demand, along with new industry deals such as the reported Google and Anthropic cloud partnership, as supportive context for Bitfarms’ expansion plans.

Bearish Takeaways

Even with higher price targets, the research includes references to recent share price pullbacks. This may signal that execution risks or changing sentiment can still weigh on near term valuation.
The uplift in sector price targets and forecasts is relatively modest compared with the size of the AI and HPC opportunity. This can leave less room for error if project timelines slip or costs differ from expectations.
While project level financing helps fund Panther Creek, it can also add complexity to the capital structure and may limit flexibility if project cash flows do not track underlying assumptions.
Heavy reliance on AI and hyperscaler demand concentration means Bitfarms’ growth thesis and valuation are closely tied to continued appetite for large scale power and data center capacity, which may not move in a straight line.

What's in the News

Bitfarms plans to convert its 18 MW Washington State Bitcoin mining facility to support HPC/AI workloads, with up to 190 kW per rack and advanced liquid cooling, under a fully funded US$128 million agreement with a large publicly traded American data center infrastructure provider. The project targets completion in December 2026.
The Washington facility is expected to be supplied with all critical IT equipment and building materials for 18 MW of gross capacity, with an anticipated PuE between 1.2 and 1.3 and validated reference designs for compatibility and performance with Nvidia GB300 GPUs.
Bitfarms reported Total BTC earned of 520 for the third quarter of 2025 versus 414 for the same period a year earlier, and 1,570 BTC for the first nine months of 2025 versus 1,562 a year earlier.
From July 22, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Bitfarms repurchased 7,807,141 shares, representing 1.4% of its shares, for C$10 million, completing the buyback program announced on July 25, 2025.
Bitfarms appointed Jonathan Mir as Chief Financial Officer effective October 27, 2025, with prior CFO Jeff Lucas retiring and remaining as a strategic financial advisor through the first quarter of 2026.

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: The fair value estimate is unchanged at 8.48, indicating no adjustment to the overall model output.
Discount Rate: The discount rate has fallen slightly from 7.59% to 7.56%, reflecting a small tweak to the risk assumptions used in the valuation.
Revenue Growth: The revenue growth assumption has risen slightly from 36.62% to 37.19%, indicating a modestly higher outlook for future revenue expansion in the model.
Net Profit Margin: The profit margin assumption has risen from 34.11% to 35.69%, indicating a slightly stronger view on future profitability in the updated inputs.
Future P/E: The future P/E multiple has fallen from 23.32x to 21.92x, indicating that the updated valuation uses a somewhat lower pricing multiple on projected earnings.

Expansion into renewable-powered data centers and high-performance computing aligns with green energy trends, unlocking new high-margin revenue streams and regulatory support.
Strategic positioning as a U.S.-based, institutionally accessible company with consistent cash flow and share buybacks supports valuation growth and mitigates shareholder risk.
Regulatory uncertainty, high capital needs, geographic concentration, unproven data center transition, and ongoing Bitcoin exposure create significant execution and financial risks for Bitfarms.

Catalysts

About Bitfarms

Operates integrated bitcoin data centers in Canada, the United States, Paraguay, and Argentina.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Bitfarms is uniquely positioned to capitalize on growing institutional demand for Bitcoin and the increased digitization of financial systems, evidenced by its large, efficient North American mining footprint and growing Bitcoin holdings. This could drive higher future revenue and improved profit margins as Bitcoin adoption continues and prices rise.
Strategic conversion of renewable-powered mining sites (particularly in Quebec and Washington) into high-performance computing (HPC) and AI data centers aligns with the global trend toward green energy in tech infrastructure, potentially granting access to ESG-driven capital and regulatory support, while unlocking new high-margin revenue streams.
Development of large-scale HPC/AI campuses in emerging data center hubs like Pennsylvania-supported by robust enterprise demand, political tailwinds, and partnerships with top-tier developers like T5-positions Bitfarms for sustained earnings growth and margin expansion through long-term, contracted revenue streams.
Bitfarms' proactive transformation into a U.S.-based entity with U.S. GAAP adoption and targeted index inclusion significantly broadens access to institutional capital, which, combined with ongoing positive free cash flow and a clean balance sheet, improves capital efficiency and the potential for valuation multiple expansion.
The ongoing share buyback program, funded by steady mining cash flows, demonstrates management's confidence in undervaluation and supports near-term EPS growth while the market awaits the realization of substantial HPC/AI revenue, further reducing downside risk to shareholders.

Bitfarms Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Bitfarms's revenue will grow by 27.1% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts are not forecasting that Bitfarms will become profitable in next 3 years. To represent the Analyst Price Target as a Future PE Valuation we will estimate Bitfarms's profit margin will increase from -35.1% to the average CA Software industry of 11.6% in 3 years.
If Bitfarms's profit margin were to converge on the industry average, you could expect earnings to reach $58.8 million (and earnings per share of $0.09) by about September 2028, up from $-86.2 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 46.9x on those 2028 earnings, up from -8.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the CA Software industry at 66.1x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 7.0% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.7%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Bitfarms Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The company's successful pivot from Bitcoin mining to HPC and AI data centers in Quebec is contingent on regulatory approval to convert crypto mining megawatts to data center megawatts-without a clearly defined regulatory path or timeline, any delays or refusals could materially impact Bitfarms' ability to realize anticipated revenue growth and diversify its earnings base.
Bitfarms' growth strategy requires outsized capital expenditures (e.g., ~$400 million for Panther Creek campus buildout) and significant reliance on access to debt financing and the timely drawdown of facilities like Macquarie's; delays, increased financing costs, or inability to meet drawdown conditions may constrain execution and pressure free cash flow and net margins.
The company's shift toward North American operations does not fully eliminate geographic concentration risk, especially in Quebec and Pennsylvania, where future local regulatory, energy pricing, or policy changes could increase operating costs, disrupt operations, or induce sudden capacity reductions-leading to revenue volatility and reduced profitability.
The transition from high-yield Bitcoin mining to long-term contracted HPC and AI data center revenue remains unproven for Bitfarms; prolonged or unsuccessful customer negotiations, slower-than-expected ramp-up of data center utilization, or high execution risk in complex buildouts may hinder expected revenue and EBITDA margin improvements.
With ongoing Bitcoin mining operations funding share buybacks, CapEx, and G&A, Bitfarms remains highly exposed to volatile Bitcoin prices; future price downturns or higher network hash rates could significantly reduce mining revenue and free cash flow, weakening the financial underpinning of its broader transformation strategy.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$4.507 for Bitfarms based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $504.8 million, earnings will come to $58.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 46.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.7%.
Given the current share price of CA$1.81, the analyst price target of CA$4.51 is 59.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

Have other thoughts on Bitfarms?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

How well do narratives help inform your perspective?

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

BITF: Project Financing Should Accelerate 1.3 GW AI and Data Center Rollout