Carlsberg will gradually evolve from a traditional beer company into a broader premium beverage group, with beer, soft drinks and alcohol-free beverages all contributing to growth.
The acquisition of Britvic strengthens Carlsberg’s exposure to soft drinks and gives the group a more balanced portfolio at a time when beer volumes are under pressure in some markets. Premium beer, alcohol-free beer and soft drinks should support modest organic revenue growth, while cost discipline, integration synergies and operating leverage should allow operating profit to grow slightly faster than revenue.
I expect Carlsberg to remain a defensive, cash-generative consumer staples company rather than a high-growth stock. My base case is that adjusted EPS grows from about DKK 61 in 2025 to the mid-to-high DKK 60s over the next few years, supported by Britvic synergies, premiumisation, Asia growth and continued dividend discipline.
Using a fair multiple of around 16–17 times normalised earnings. This assumes moderate earnings growth, no major deterioration in consumer demand, gradual deleveraging and continued dividend growth.
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