ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) Stock Overview
Provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 3/6 |
| Financial Health | 5/6 |
| Dividends | 3/6 |
ZTO Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$25.59 |
| 52 Week High | US$26.20 |
| 52 Week Low | US$16.68 |
| Beta | -0.16 |
| 1 Month Change | 1.67% |
| 3 Month Change | 16.69% |
| 1 Year Change | 38.62% |
| 3 Year Change | -5.88% |
| 5 Year Change | -19.22% |
| Change since IPO | 54.44% |
Recent News & Updates
ZTO: Future Share Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price expectations for ZTO Express (Cayman) higher, lifting the updated fair value estimate to about $31.38 from roughly $31.00. Recent research highlights the impact of share buybacks, slightly stronger revenue and margin assumptions, and revised long term P/E expectations across the Street.
ZTO: Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Face Ongoing Execution And Growth Risks
Analysts lifted the fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) from about $21.10 to roughly $23.81. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, a modestly higher future P/E multiple, and recent research that highlights share buybacks and improved unit economics, even as some views turn more cautious.Recent updates
ZTO: Future Share Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price expectations for ZTO Express (Cayman) higher, lifting the updated fair value estimate to about $31.38 from roughly $31.00. Recent research highlights the impact of share buybacks, slightly stronger revenue and margin assumptions, and revised long term P/E expectations across the Street.ZTO: Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Face Ongoing Execution And Growth Risks
Analysts lifted the fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) from about $21.10 to roughly $23.81. This reflects updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, a modestly higher future P/E multiple, and recent research that highlights share buybacks and improved unit economics, even as some views turn more cautious.ZTO: Future Share Repurchases And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) by about $2 to roughly $31, as they factor in updated growth and margin assumptions alongside recent Street research that includes a higher $26 price target at BofA, an upgrade at Macquarie on better unit economics, and a downgrade at Daiwa reflecting more cautious views. Analyst Commentary Recent Street views on ZTO Express (Cayman) are mixed, but there is a clear pocket of optimism from bullish analysts who are leaning into share buybacks, earnings revisions, and improved unit economics as reasons to take a more constructive stance on the stock.ZTO Express: A 'Buy' On Earnings Beat And Appealing Yield (Rating Upgrade)
Mar 19ZTO: Future Buybacks And Unit Economics Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have nudged their price target on ZTO Express (Cayman) slightly higher to $29.03 from $28.84, citing updated fair value work that reflects ongoing share buybacks, a modest FY26 earnings uplift, and improved unit economics. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the latest fair value work leans on factors such as ongoing share buybacks, a 1% uplift to FY26 earnings expectations, and improved unit economics, which they see as supportive for the refreshed US$29.03 price target.ZTO: Future Buybacks And Better Unit Economics Will Support Upside
Analysts now see fair value for ZTO Express (Cayman) nudging higher, with their price target moving from about $27.72 to roughly $28.84. This points to expectations for slightly better long term growth, profitability and P/E support, backed by recent price target raises tied to share buybacks and improved unit economics.ZTO: Future Unit Economics Will Face Pressure From Execution Risks
Analysts have modestly lifted their fair value estimate for ZTO Express (Cayman) from about US$19.53 to roughly US$21.10 per share, citing Street research that points to stronger unit economics, slightly higher projected revenue growth and profit margins, and a marginally lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research around ZTO Express (Cayman) has become more nuanced, with some highlighting better unit economics while others lean toward a more cautious stance on risks around execution, growth, and valuation.ZTO: Future Buybacks Will Support Upside As Parcel Volumes Expand
Analysts have nudged their price target on ZTO Express (Cayman) slightly higher to reflect a fair value estimate of about $27.72, incorporating updated views on revenue, profit margins and an assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) repurchased 2,020,008 shares, about 0.25% of its share base, for US$71.7 million under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).
ZTO: Buybacks And Stable Margins Will Support Fairly Valued Shares
Analysts have increased their price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) to US$23.87 from US$23.29, reflecting updated assumptions about modestly stronger revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Completed share repurchases under the buyback announced on November 14, 2018, totaling 52,919,506 shares, or 6.5% of the company, for US$1.3b (Key Developments).These 4 Measures Indicate That ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well
Jan 07
ZTO Express Delivers Volume-Led Revenue Growth in Q3 2025, but Margin Pressure Weighs on Operating Performance
based on recent valautionZTO: Future Margin Gains And Buybacks Will Support Balanced Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) from approximately $17.52 to $19.53 per share, citing expectations for improved profit margins and a slightly lower future earnings multiple, despite a small reduction in projected revenue growth. What's in the News ZTO Express (Cayman) updated its 2018 share repurchase program, disclosing that between July 1 and September 30, 2025 it bought back 2,020,008 shares, or about 0.25% of shares outstanding, for approximately $71.7 million (company buyback filing).ZTO: Future Parcel Volume Expansion And Buybacks Will Drive Upside Potential
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been modestly reduced to approximately $27.26 from about $28.15, as analysts factor in slightly slower expected revenue growth and a higher discount rate, partly offset by improved profit margin forecasts and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Completed a major share repurchase program, buying back a total of 52,919,506 shares, about 6.5% of shares outstanding, for approximately $1.3 billion under the buyback first announced in November 2018 (company disclosure) Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, repurchased an additional 2,020,008 shares, roughly 0.25% of shares outstanding, for $71.7 million as the final tranche of the long running program (company disclosure) Issued 2025 parcel volume guidance of 38.2 billion to 38.7 billion parcels, implying year over year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% in shipment volume (company guidance) Scheduled a board meeting for November 19, 2025, to review and approve unaudited third quarter 2025 financial results and authorize their publication (board meeting notice) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate was reduced slightly from $28.15 to $27.26 per share, reflecting more conservative growth assumptions.ZTO: Profit Margins Will Strengthen Despite Slower Volume Expansion
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) decreased from $22 to $20, as analysts point to slower delivery volume growth and a scarcity of near-term consolidation opportunities in the market. Analyst Commentary Following recent data releases and industry developments, analysts have provided updated perspectives on ZTO Express (Cayman)'s near-term prospects.ZTO: Profit Margins Will Remain Resilient Despite Volume Slowdown
The analyst average price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) was lowered slightly, down from $23.27 to $23.24, as analysts cite a slowdown in express delivery volume growth and limited near-term consolidation opportunities. Analyst Commentary Analysts provided further insight into ZTO Express (Cayman)'s recent price target revisions, noting a mix of positive execution signals and sector-specific headwinds influencing sentiment.Sustained Profitability And Efficiency Will Drive Continued Market Outperformance
Narrative Update on ZTO Express (Cayman): Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have marginally raised their price target for ZTO Express, increasing it from $23.22 to $23.27. This adjustment reflects sustained profitability, along with a cautious outlook due to slower express delivery volume growth and limited opportunities for near-term industry consolidation.China's E-Commerce And Automation Will Secure Resilient Market Leadership
The analyst price target for ZTO Express (Cayman) has been reduced by $0.39, as analysts cite slower express delivery volume growth and a cautious outlook on near-term market opportunities. Analyst Commentary Analysts have adjusted their perspectives on ZTO Express (Cayman), weighing both the company's operational strengths and the challenges present in the current market environment.Here's Why ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Sep 27China's E-Commerce And Automation Will Secure Resilient Market Leadership
Despite a notable decline in both future P/E and consensus revenue growth forecasts for ZTO Express (Cayman), the consensus analyst price target has edged up from $22.95 to $23.58. What's in the News Company completed buyback of 50,899,498 shares (6.24%) for $1,228.3 million; no additional shares repurchased in recent quarter.Earnings Miss: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Aug 22ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) Low P/E No Reason For Excitement
Jul 07Investors Will Want ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) Growth In ROCE To Persist
Jun 19We Think ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
May 14ZTO Express: Still Lack Of Strategic Clarity - Maintain 'Hold'
Mar 25
Decisive Innovations In E-commerce Partnerships And IT Systems To Fuel Logistics Growth
Strategic partnerships and service differentiation efforts aim to boost parcel volume, enhance pricing power, and drive revenue growth.ZTO Express: Expect An Extended Price War, Downgrade To Hold
Nov 22ZTO Express: A Mix Of Positives And Negatives
Nov 06ZTO Express: Expecting Accelerating Volume Growth In H2
Aug 22ZTO Express: Still Undervalued Despite Unexpected Market Share Loss
Jun 12ZTO Express: Getting Better And Cheaper
Mar 25ZTO Express: Expecting In-Line Fourth Quarter Results
Feb 19ZTO Momentum Slows In Third Quarter As Headwinds Build
Nov 28Shareholder Returns
| ZTO | US Logistics | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 1Y | 38.6% | 46.2% | 28.7% |
Return vs Industry: ZTO underperformed the US Logistics industry which returned 43% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ZTO exceeded the US Market which returned 27.6% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| ZTO volatility | |
|---|---|
| ZTO Average Weekly Movement | 4.0% |
| Logistics Industry Average Movement | 8.7% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.3% |
Stable Share Price: ZTO has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: ZTO's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 23,399 | Meisong Lai | www.zto.com |
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| ZTO fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$19.41b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$1.33b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$7.19b |
14.7x
P/E Ratio2.7x
P/S RatioIs ZTO overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| ZTO income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | CN¥49.10b |
| Cost of Revenue | CN¥36.83b |
| Gross Profit | CN¥12.27b |
| Other Expenses | CN¥3.19b |
| Earnings | CN¥9.08b |
Last Reported Earnings
Dec 31, 2025
Next Earnings Date
May 19, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 11.87 |
| Gross Margin | 24.99% |
| Net Profit Margin | 18.49% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 16.5% |
How did ZTO perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
2.7%
Current Dividend Yield42%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/04/30 04:50 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/04/30 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is covered by 32 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Cherry Leung | Bernstein |
| Fan Tso | BofA Global Research |
| Y. Chen | CCB International Securities Limited |