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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.NYSE:ZTO Stock Report

Market Cap US$15.4b
Share Price
US$19.14
My Fair Value
US$23.46
18.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
1Y-29.0%
7D1.1%
Portfolio Value
​
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

NYSE:ZTO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$15.4b

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) Stock Overview

Provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. More details

ZTO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation6/6
Future Growth1/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends3/6

Rewards

Trading at 60% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 10.09% per year

Earnings have grown 16.3% per year over the past 5 years

Trading at good value compared to peers and industry

Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 22.6%

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record


ZTO Community Fair Values

Create Narrative

See what 27 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

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ZTO Express (Cayman)

E-commerce And AI Logistics Will Transform China And Southeast Asia

Key Takeaways Accelerated automation, AI deployment, and strategic partnerships position ZTO for rapid margin expansion and increased dominance in China's evolving e-commerce logistics market. Financial strength and network scale enable ZTO to capitalize on urbanization trends, market consolidation, and expansion into adjacent logistics sectors for long-term profitability.
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US$28.15
FV
32.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
16.83%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
1users have followed this narrative
about 2 months ago author updated this narrative
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ZTO Express (Cayman)

ZTO Delivers Solid Volume Growth Amid Margin Pressures in Q1 2025

ZTO Express kicked off 2025 with a strong operational performance, highlighted by a 19.1% year-over-year surge in parcel volume to 8.5 billion —a clear reflection of robust market demand and the company's deepening competitive moat in China’s express delivery landscape. The company reiterated its full-year volume growth guidance of 20% to 24% , underscoring management's confidence in sustained momentum.
View narrative
US$20
FV
4.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
15.78%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
5users have commented on this narrative
3users have followed this narrative
4 months ago author updated this narrative
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ZTO Express (Cayman)

Chinese E-Commerce Deceleration And Cost Pressures Will Strain Performance

Key Takeaways Slower e-commerce growth and pricing pressure threaten revenue expansion and long-term earnings stability amid intensifying competition. Rising costs from automation, regulation, and customer concentration could weaken margins and strain financial flexibility over time.
View narrative
US$17.52
FV
9.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
8.94%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative
about 2 months ago author updated this narrative
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ZTO Express (Cayman)

China's E-Commerce And Automation Will Secure Resilient Market Leadership

Key Takeaways Rapid adoption of automation, AI, and premium service offerings is driving cost reductions, margin expansion, and earnings stability. Stabilizing industry pricing and improved parcel mix support sustained revenue growth and enhance ZTO's competitive market position.
View narrative
US$23.61
FV
18.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
9.26%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
14users have followed this narrative
28 days ago author updated this narrative
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for ZTO Express (Cayman)
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$19.14
52 Week HighUS$27.50
52 Week LowUS$16.34
Beta-0.13
1 Month Change5.16%
3 Month Change6.04%
1 Year Change-29.01%
3 Year Change-24.11%
5 Year Change-33.86%
Change since IPO15.51%

Recent News & Updates

Here's Why ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Sep 27
Here's Why ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Earnings Miss: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Aug 22
Earnings Miss: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Recent updates

Here's Why ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Sep 27
Here's Why ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

Earnings Miss: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Aug 22
Earnings Miss: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

ZTO Express: Both Earnings Miss And Regulatory Tailwinds Are Key Investment Considerations

Aug 20

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) Low P/E No Reason For Excitement

Jul 07
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) Low P/E No Reason For Excitement

Investors Will Want ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) Growth In ROCE To Persist

Jun 19
Investors Will Want ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) Growth In ROCE To Persist

We Think ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

May 14
We Think ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

ZTO Express: Still Lack Of Strategic Clarity - Maintain 'Hold'

Mar 25

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Mar 21
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO)

Mar 05
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO)

These 4 Measures Indicate That ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Jan 29
These 4 Measures Indicate That ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Fewer Investors Than Expected Jumping On ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO)

Jan 11
Fewer Investors Than Expected Jumping On ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO)
User avatar

Decisive Innovations In E-commerce Partnerships And IT Systems To Fuel Logistics Growth

Strategic partnerships and service differentiation efforts aim to boost parcel volume, enhance pricing power, and drive revenue growth.

ZTO Express: Expect An Extended Price War, Downgrade To Hold

Nov 22

ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) Returns Have Hit A Wall

Nov 18
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) Returns Have Hit A Wall

ZTO Express: A Mix Of Positives And Negatives

Nov 06

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Oct 18
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Looks Just Right With A 26% Price Jump

Oct 03
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) Looks Just Right With A 26% Price Jump

ZTO Express: Expecting Accelerating Volume Growth In H2

Aug 22

ZTO Express: Still Undervalued Despite Unexpected Market Share Loss

Jun 12

ZTO Express: Getting Better And Cheaper

Mar 25

ZTO Express: Expecting In-Line Fourth Quarter Results

Feb 19

ZTO Momentum Slows In Third Quarter As Headwinds Build

Nov 28

ZTO Express: Best-In-Class And Trading At Significant Discount

Nov 20

ZTO Express: A Good Company In A Tough Industry

Oct 17

ZTO Express: Staying On The Sidelines

Aug 08

ZTO Express: Watch Industry Data And Company Guidance

May 30

ZTO Express: Consider 2023 Outlook And Share Price Outperformance

Feb 09

Shareholder Returns

ZTOUS LogisticsUS Market
7D1.1%1.1%0.8%
1Y-29.0%-22.1%18.1%

Return vs Industry: ZTO underperformed the US Logistics industry which returned -22.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ZTO underperformed the US Market which returned 18% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ZTO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ZTO volatility
ZTO Average Weekly Movement4.6%
Logistics Industry Average Movement8.0%
Market Average Movement6.4%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.0%

Stable Share Price: ZTO has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.

Volatility Over Time: ZTO's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200223,913Meisong Laiwww.zto.com

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It offers freight forwarding services; and delivery services for e-commerce merchants and traditional merchants, and other express service users. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do ZTO Express (Cayman)'s earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ZTO fundamental statistics
Market capUS$15.45b
Earnings (TTM)US$1.22b
Revenue (TTM)US$6.51b
12.6x
P/E Ratio
2.4x
P/S Ratio

Is ZTO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
ZTO income statement (TTM)
RevenueCN¥46.32b
Cost of RevenueCN¥33.59b
Gross ProfitCN¥12.73b
Other ExpensesCN¥4.02b
EarningsCN¥8.71b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2025

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)10.83
Gross Margin27.48%
Net Profit Margin18.81%
Debt/Equity Ratio28.3%

How did ZTO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.1%
Current Dividend Yield
43%
Payout Ratio

Does ZTO pay a reliable dividends?

See ZTO dividend history and benchmarks
When do you need to buy ZTO by to receive an upcoming dividend?
ZTO Express (Cayman) dividend dates
Ex Dividend DateSep 30 2025
Dividend Pay DateOct 31 2025
Days until Ex dividend3 days
Days until Dividend pay date28 days

Does ZTO pay a reliable dividends?

See ZTO dividend history and benchmarks

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/01 18:19
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/01 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is covered by 37 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Fan TsoBofA Global Research
Rong LiCCB International Securities Limited
Hazim BahariCFRA Equity Research