Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Stock Overview
An independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
NOG Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 27 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$18.52 |
| 52 Week High | US$31.17 |
| 52 Week Low | US$17.18 |
| Beta | 0.71 |
| 1 Month Change | -13.26% |
| 3 Month Change | -31.25% |
| 1 Year Change | -39.75% |
| 3 Year Change | -46.29% |
| 5 Year Change | 16.85% |
| Change since IPO | -38.88% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Jul 06
NOG: Future Upside Will Hinge On Hedging And Duvernay Expansion
Northern Oil and Gas' analyst price target has shifted lower from $29 to about $25.32 as analysts factor in updated oil price assumptions and a slightly higher discount rate, despite broadly steady expectations for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Northern Oil and Gas points to a more cautious stance from several bearish analysts, with multiple price target cuts and rating downgrades reflecting concerns about risk and reward at current levels.Narrative Update • Jun 22
NOG: Future Upside Will Depend On Hedged Exposure To Shifting Oil Prices
Northern Oil and Gas' consensus analyst price target has shifted slightly higher to $29, as analysts factor in updated views on the company’s hedge profile, its relative positioning compared with less hedged peers, and expectations around production performance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Northern Oil and Gas shows a mix of views, with some analysts lifting price targets slightly while others move to more neutral or cautious ratings.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 06
NOG: Future Upside Will Hinge On Hedging And Duvernay Expansion
Northern Oil and Gas' analyst price target has shifted lower from $29 to about $25.32 as analysts factor in updated oil price assumptions and a slightly higher discount rate, despite broadly steady expectations for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Northern Oil and Gas points to a more cautious stance from several bearish analysts, with multiple price target cuts and rating downgrades reflecting concerns about risk and reward at current levels.Narrative Update • Jun 22
NOG: Future Upside Will Depend On Hedged Exposure To Shifting Oil Prices
Northern Oil and Gas' consensus analyst price target has shifted slightly higher to $29, as analysts factor in updated views on the company’s hedge profile, its relative positioning compared with less hedged peers, and expectations around production performance. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Northern Oil and Gas shows a mix of views, with some analysts lifting price targets slightly while others move to more neutral or cautious ratings.Analysis Article • Jun 19
Northern Oil And Gas (NOG) Stock Could Be 45.1% Undervalued After Oil Price Pressure
A reported peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran sent oil prices lower, pressuring the energy sector and pulling Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) stock down 3.2% in the afternoon session. See our latest analysis for Northern Oil and Gas. Beyond today’s move, Northern Oil and Gas has faced sustained pressure, with the share price down 21.9% over 30 days and 32.6% over 90 days, while the 1 year total shareholder return has declined 33.5%. This suggests momentum is fading as investors reassess...Narrative Update • Jun 07
NOG: Future Returns Will Rely On Hedged Upside In Stronger Oil Price Scenario
Narrative Update: Analyst Price Target Shift for Northern Oil and Gas The analyst price target for Northern Oil and Gas moves from $24.09 to $29.00. This reflects updated views on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E as analysts weigh mixed rating changes and revised oil price assumptions across recent research.
Narrative Update • May 22
NOG: Higher Oil Price Decks And Production Execution Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average price target and fair value estimates for Northern Oil and Gas to around $40, down from about $45. This reflects a slightly higher discount rate and hedge related headwinds, even as they factor in marginally stronger revenue growth, profit margins and a lower future P/E.Seeking Alpha • May 08
Northern Oil and Gas: How I Value This Upstream Operator In 2026
Summary Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) receives a 'Hold' rating with a $16/share price target, citing excessive volatility and complex financials. NOG's non-operator model, heavy hedging, and reliance on M&A introduce significant risks, limiting upside from high oil prices. Despite record production and a high yield, negative GAAP earnings, dilution, and high leverage undermine the investment case. I see NOG as a financial vehicle exposed to oil dynamics, not a traditional oil company, warranting a deep valuation discount. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • May 05
NOG: Higher Crude Price Decks Will Support Future Cash Flow Upside
Narrative Update Overview Northern Oil and Gas has its fair value estimate adjusted to $45.00 as analysts revise price targets and supporting assumptions, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, discount rates and future P/E for the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Northern Oil and Gas has been active, with price targets moving both higher and lower as analysts adjust assumptions around oil prices, conflict risk and commodity supply expectations.
Narrative Update • Apr 20
NOG: Higher Oil Price Assumptions Will Shape Future Cash Flow
The analyst fair value estimate for Northern Oil and Gas has been revised to $35.40 from $29.90, reflecting updated Street price targets and analyst assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a modestly lower future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Northern Oil and Gas has been active, with several firms adjusting price targets in both directions as they refresh assumptions around commodity prices, P/E, and company execution.Narrative Update • Apr 06
NOG: Higher Oil Decks And Richer Future P/E Will Support Upside
Northern Oil and Gas has seen its analyst price target increase by about $6, as analysts adjust their models to reflect a higher fair value, a lower discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple supported by revised oil price assumptions across recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a clear shift toward higher fair value estimates for Northern Oil and Gas, with several price target revisions tied directly to updated oil price assumptions and revised valuation frameworks.Narrative Update • Mar 23
NOG: Future Returns Will Hinge On Weaker Margins Despite Higher Oil Assumptions
Analysts have nudged their average price targets for Northern Oil and Gas higher into the low $30s. They point to updated crude oil price decks and expectations for tighter long term supply as key drivers behind the revisions.Narrative Update • Mar 07
NOG: Stable Execution And Oil Supply Risks Will Shape Future Cash Flow
The consolidated analyst price target for Northern Oil and Gas has shifted slightly, reflecting mixed moves such as Piper Sandler raising its target to $27 and other firms trimming theirs closer to the high $20 range as analysts balance changing oil supply risks with updated valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Northern Oil and Gas reflects a mixed stance, with some firms lifting their price targets and others trimming them, all while maintaining neutral ratings.Narrative Update • Feb 21
NOG: Future Returns Will Depend On Weaker Margins And Discounted Cash Flows
Narrative Update: Northern Oil and Gas Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Northern Oil and Gas by a few dollars, with recent cuts of $1 to $3 helping reset expectations as they factor in updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates point to a more cautious tone around Northern Oil and Gas, with several bearish analysts trimming their price targets by increments of $1 to $3.Narrative Update • Feb 07
NOG: Refined Margin And P/E Assumptions Will Support Future Confidence
Analysts have reduced their blended price target on Northern Oil and Gas by about $1, citing updated assumptions regarding fair value, discount rates, growth, margins and future P/E multiples reflected in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research reports have trimmed individual price targets by between US$1 and US$3, but the tone from bullish analysts has not been uniformly negative.Narrative Update • Jan 24
NOG: Future Returns Will Balance Cautious Sentiment With Production And Impairment Risks
Narrative Update: Northern Oil and Gas The analyst price target for Northern Oil and Gas moved from US$25 to US$24, as analysts update their models for a lower assumed future P/E multiple, alongside revised expectations for revenue growth, profit margins and discount rates. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned more cautious on Northern Oil and Gas, with several bearish analysts trimming their price targets in quick succession.Narrative Update • Jan 09
NOG: Clean Q3 Operations Will Support Confidence Despite Weaker Gas And NGL Realizations
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Northern Oil and Gas to US$26 from US$27, citing expectations for clean Q3 operational updates but cash flow that may sit below consensus due to weaker gas and NGL realizations, as well as updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a mixed setup for Northern Oil and Gas, with the latest price target trimming to US$26 from US$27 framed more as a recalibration than a major shift in conviction.Narrative Update • Dec 23
NOG: Clean Q3 Operations Will Support Future Cash Flow Despite Weaker Realizations
Northern Oil and Gas' analyst price target was reduced by $1.00 to $26.00 as analysts factor in weaker expected cash flow from softer gas and NGL realizations, despite anticipating clean Q3 operational updates. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the anticipated clean Q3 operational updates as a sign that execution in core basins remains disciplined and predictable.Analysis Article • Dec 09
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSE:NOG) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon
It's not a stretch to say that Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s ( NYSE:NOG ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.1x right...Narrative Update • Dec 09
NOG: Clean Q3 Execution Will Support Cash Flow Through Weaker Realizations
Northern Oil and Gas' analyst price target has been nudged slightly lower to about $26 from $27, as analysts factor in weaker gas and NGL realizations that are expected to pressure near term cash flow despite generally clean Q3 operational updates. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain focused on how near term commodity price headwinds intersect with Northern Oil and Gas' operational execution and long term growth outlook.Narrative Update • Nov 05
NOG: Future Cash Flow Will Reflect Stronger Production And Improved Operational Efficiency
Northern Oil and Gas's analyst price target has been lowered by $1 to $26. This reflects expectations among analysts for slightly weaker cash flow, driven by softer gas and NGL realizations.Narrative Update • Oct 21
Analysts Weigh Mixed Outlook for Northern Oil and Gas as Valuation Adjusts to Cash Flow Concerns
Northern Oil and Gas Price Target Adjusted Amid Lower Cash Flow Expectations Analysts have lowered their price target for Northern Oil and Gas by $1 to $26, citing anticipated cash flow shortfalls driven by weaker gas and natural gas liquids realizations. This adjustment comes despite otherwise stable operational performance.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Acquisitions And US Shale Will Secure Future Resilience Despite Risks
Northern Oil and Gas's fair value outlook was held steady at $33.70 as analysts weighed continued oil market volatility, high OPEC+ supply, and robust but supply-offset gas demand against incremental sector uncertainties. Analyst Commentary Volatile oil pricing and increased geopolitical risk are raising uncertainty around sector returns.Analysis Article • Jun 24
Is Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Analysis Article • May 16
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSE:NOG) CEO Compensation Looks Acceptable To Us And Here's Why
Key Insights Northern Oil and Gas to hold its Annual General Meeting on 22nd of May Total pay for CEO Nick O'Grady...Seeking Alpha • Apr 14
Northern Oil And Gas Merits An Accumulate Rating
Summary Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. has seen a nearly 50% stock drop in three months, despite an 8% yield and a $100 million share repurchase program. The company focuses on non-operating, minority interests in unconventional oil and gas properties, leveraging proprietary data and relationships to mitigate risks and optimize investments. Despite strong financials and a peer-leading return on capital, analysts have cooled on the stock due to concerns over fewer investment opportunities with sub-$75 oil prices. The stock has seen some recent insider buying and has a solid balance sheet. An analysis of Northern Oil & Gas follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 07
Northern Oil and Gas: Projected To Generate Over $300 Million In 2025 Free Cash Flow
Summary Northern is projected to generate $323 million in 2025 free cash flow at the current strip. NOG is helped by around 65% of its oil production being hedged with a swap/floor of around $72. Northern expects significant production growth towards the end of 2025 and into 2026. Plans may change in response to weaker oil prices. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 07
Earnings Working Against Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s (NYSE:NOG) Share Price Following 27% Dive
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. ( NYSE:NOG ) share price has dived 27% in the last...Shareholder Returns
| NOG | US Oil and Gas | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| 1Y | -39.8% | 19.1% | 19.5% |
Return vs Industry: NOG underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 19.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: NOG underperformed the US Market which returned 19.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| NOG volatility | |
|---|---|
| NOG Average Weekly Movement | 6.6% |
| Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement | 5.9% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.3% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.7% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: NOG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: NOG's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 64 | Nick O'Grady | www.noginc.com |
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| NOG fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.98b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$623.07m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.93b |
1.0x
P/S Ratio-3.1x
P/E RatioIs NOG overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| NOG income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$1.93b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$489.37m |
| Gross Profit | US$1.44b |
| Other Expenses | US$2.06b |
| Earnings | -US$623.07m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
Aug 06, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -5.92 |
| Gross Margin | 74.58% |
| Net Profit Margin | -32.36% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 143.0% |
How did NOG perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
9.7%
Current Dividend Yield-28%
Payout RatioDoes NOG pay a reliable dividends?
See NOG dividend history and benchmarks| Northern Oil and Gas dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Jun 29 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Jul 31 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 12 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 20 days |
Does NOG pay a reliable dividends?
See NOG dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/10 22:27 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/10 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is covered by 26 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Phillip Jungwirth | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Daniel McSpirit | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Noah Hungness | BofA Global Research |