Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Stock Overview
An independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 1/6 |
| Financial Health | 1/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
MNR Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 32 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Mach Natural Resources LP Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$11.13 |
| 52 Week High | US$15.02 |
| 52 Week Low | US$10.46 |
| Beta | -0.46 |
| 1 Month Change | -12.43% |
| 3 Month Change | -11.31% |
| 1 Year Change | -14.97% |
| 3 Year Change | n/a |
| 5 Year Change | n/a |
| Change since IPO | -39.31% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Sep 04
MNR: Higher 2026 Oil Mix And Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Mach Natural Resources to $17.29 from $18.43 as they factor in updated assumptions for lower revenue growth, a softer profit margin outlook, and a reduced future P/E multiple. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP reported second quarter 2026 production of 148.9 Mboe/d, with a mix of 15% oil, 69% natural gas and 16% NGLs. Source: Company operating results announcement for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Seeking Alpha • Aug 26
Mach Natural Resources: Turning The Next Oil Downturn Into An Opportunity
Summary Mach Natural Resources LP remains a Strong Buy, with the market undervaluing its disciplined oil pivot and robust capital allocation. MNR’s Q2 saw lower distributions due to elevated CAPEX, but the annualized yield remains attractive amid strategic oil drilling expansion. Management prioritizes reducing leverage toward its 1x target by 2027, positioning MNR for opportunistic acquisitions in cyclical downturns. Valuation implies a steep discount rate, offering a significant margin of safety for a well-run, acquisition-savvy operator. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRecent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 04
MNR: Higher 2026 Oil Mix And Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Mach Natural Resources to $17.29 from $18.43 as they factor in updated assumptions for lower revenue growth, a softer profit margin outlook, and a reduced future P/E multiple. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP reported second quarter 2026 production of 148.9 Mboe/d, with a mix of 15% oil, 69% natural gas and 16% NGLs. Source: Company operating results announcement for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.Seeking Alpha • Aug 26
Mach Natural Resources: Turning The Next Oil Downturn Into An Opportunity
Summary Mach Natural Resources LP remains a Strong Buy, with the market undervaluing its disciplined oil pivot and robust capital allocation. MNR’s Q2 saw lower distributions due to elevated CAPEX, but the annualized yield remains attractive amid strategic oil drilling expansion. Management prioritizes reducing leverage toward its 1x target by 2027, positioning MNR for opportunistic acquisitions in cyclical downturns. Valuation implies a steep discount rate, offering a significant margin of safety for a well-run, acquisition-savvy operator. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 13
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Support Attractive Unit Repricing Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Mach Natural Resources to $20.00 from $22.00, reflecting updated assumptions that include a slightly higher discount rate, more moderate revenue growth expectations, a marginally higher profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple. What’s in the News for Mach Natural Resources Mach Natural Resources LP filed for a follow on equity offering of $100 million in common units, structured as an at the market offering.Narrative Update • Jun 22
MNR: 2026 Distributions And Equity Offerings Will Support Future Upside
Mach Natural Resources' analyst price target has been revised slightly lower to $18.43 from $18.71, as analysts refresh their fair value, discount rate and future P/E assumptions to reflect the latest model inputs. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP completed a follow on equity offering of 9,000,000 common units, raising approximately $117.45 million at a price of $13.05 per unit, with a stated discount of $0.24 per security.Analysis Article • Jun 18
Mach Natural Resources (MNR) Stock Could Be 33.5% Undervalued Despite Recent Share Price Weakness
Mach Natural Resources (MNR) is drawing investor attention after a recent stretch of weaker share performance, with the stock down about 5% over the past week and 16% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Mach Natural Resources. Looking beyond the recent pullback, Mach Natural Resources has a year to date share price return of 10.67%, while the 1 year total shareholder return is down 7.28%. This suggests momentum has recently faded as investors reassess risk and return expectations...Narrative Update • Jun 06
MNR: ATM Equity Program And 2026 Cash Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Mach Natural Resources' updated analyst price target has shifted modestly to about $18.71 per share from roughly $19.14, as analysts factor in changed assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and the stock's future P/E multiple. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources entered into an equity distribution agreement with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC for an at-the-market program of up to US$100 million in common units, with proceeds intended primarily for term loan repayment and general partnership purposes, according to a recent 8-K filing.Analysis Article • May 15
Mach Natural Resources' (NYSE:MNR) Problems Go Beyond Weak Profit
Mach Natural Resources LP's ( NYSE:MNR ) stock showed strength, with investors undeterred by its weak earnings report...Narrative Update • May 12
MNR: Equity Offering And 2026 Production Guidance Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have revised their price target for Mach Natural Resources to $19.14. The change is based on updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, which they view as better reflecting the company’s current risk and return profile.Narrative Update • Apr 27
MNR: Equity Offering And 2026 Production Outlook Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have nudged their price target for Mach Natural Resources from about $18.57 to around $19.14, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP filed a follow-on equity offering of 9,000,000 common units of common stock.Narrative Update • Apr 11
MNR: Production Outlook And Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have updated their view on Mach Natural Resources with a refined price target of $18.57, reflecting slight adjustments to the discount rate, expected revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions that together reshape how they view the stock’s risk and earnings profile. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP filed a follow-on equity offering of 9,000,000 common units, classified as common stock.
New Narrative • Apr 09
Deep Anadarko Cost Pressures Will Challenge Cash Distributions Yet Long Reserve Life Should Support Returns
Catalysts About Mach Natural Resources Mach Natural Resources is an energy producer focused on oil, natural gas and NGL production across the Mid-Continent and San Juan Basin, with a model centered on cash distributions to unitholders. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 27
MNR: Higher Margins And Cash Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Mach Natural Resources to approximately $18.57 from $19, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources issued production guidance for fiscal 2026, with total production expected to range between 150 MBoe/d and 157 MBoe/d (Corporate Guidance).New Narrative • Mar 26
Long Life Acreage And Growing Reserves Will Support Stronger Future Cash Distributions
Catalysts About Mach Natural Resources Mach Natural Resources is an oil and gas producer focused on acquiring and developing long life, cash generative assets in the Mid Continent and San Juan Basin. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 12
MNR: Steady Fair Value And Cash Distributions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts kept their fair value estimate for Mach Natural Resources steady at $19.00, noting only very small adjustments in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that together did not meaningfully change their price target view. What's in the News Mach Natural Resources LP declared a fourth quarter 2025 cash distribution of $0.53 per common unit for its unitholders.Narrative Update • Feb 25
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Support Upside As Discount Assumptions Ease
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Mach Natural Resources slightly, citing updated assumptions for fair value of $19.0, modestly adjusted discount rates and revenue growth expectations, and a small change to the implied future P/E multiple. What's in the News The board of directors of Mach Natural Resources LP's general partner declared a fourth quarter 2025 cash distribution of $0.53 per common unit.Narrative Update • Feb 11
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Drive Upside With Improved Market Confidence
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Mach Natural Resources to $19.40, citing updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as the key drivers of this adjustment. Valuation Changes Fair Value: $19.40 has been maintained, with no change from the prior estimate.Narrative Update • Jan 26
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Drive Upside Despite Recent Impairment
Analysts have adjusted their price target for Mach Natural Resources to US$19.40 from about US$19.17, citing updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that slightly refine their outlook on the shares. What's in the News Reported third quarter 2025 production results, with average total net production of 94,000 Mboe/d for the period (company announcement).Narrative Update • Jan 11
MNR: Future Cash Distributions Will Support Upside Despite Recent Asset Impairment
Analysts have reduced their price target for Mach Natural Resources by about $0.67, reflecting slightly revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, margin, and forward P/E in their updated models. What's in the News Reported third quarter 2025 total net production of 94,000 Mboe/d, providing a fresh reference point for recent operating scale (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 23
MNR: Future Distribution Stability Will Support Upside Despite Recent Impairment
Narrative Update on Mach Natural Resources Analysts have reaffirmed their price target for Mach Natural Resources at approximately $19.83 per share, citing largely unchanged expectations for growth, profitability, and valuation multiples, with only marginal adjustments to discount rate assumptions. What's in the News Reported third quarter 2025 operating results, with average total net production reaching 94,000 Mboe/d, highlighting continued scale in upstream operations (company filing) Recorded a $90.43 million impairment of oil and gas properties for the third quarter of 2025, signaling a reassessment of asset values amid commodity and reserve updates (company filing) Declared a reduced quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit for the third quarter of 2025, payable December 4, 2025 to unitholders of record on November 20, 2025 (company announcement) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $19.83 per share, reflecting consistent expectations for long term intrinsic value.Narrative Update • Dec 08
MNR: Higher Future Multiple May Reward Moderate Profitability Expectations
Analysts have trimmed their 12 month price target on Mach Natural Resources from approximately $21.00 to about $19.83 per share, citing expectations for slower revenue growth and moderating profit margins, partly offset by a higher assumed future price to earnings multiple. What's in the News Reported third quarter 2025 operating results, with average total net production of 94,000 Mboe/d and highlighted continued scale in its upstream portfolio (Key Developments) Recorded a $90.43 million impairment charge on oil and gas properties for the third quarter of 2025, signaling reassessment of asset values amid changing market conditions (Key Developments) Declared a reduced quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit for the third quarter of 2025, payable on December 4, 2025 to unitholders of record on November 20, 2025 (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Fair Value Estimate was lowered moderately from approximately $21.00 to about $19.83 per share, reflecting a slightly more conservative outlook on intrinsic value.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Growing US Natural Gas Demand Will Unlock Long-Term Value
Mach Natural Resources’ consensus price target was revised downward, primarily reflecting a lower future P/E multiple, resulting in a reduced fair value estimate of $21.00. What's in the News Reported Q2 average production of 83.6 Mboe/d, with 23% oil, 53% natural gas, and 24% NGLs. Q2 production revenues totaled $219 million: 51% oil, 31% natural gas, 18% NGLs. Declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.38 per common unit for Q2.Analysis Article • Aug 10
Mach Natural Resources LP Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
NYSE:MNR 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Mach Natural Resources's Fair Values from the Community and select...
New Narrative • May 01
2025 Rig Increase And Acquisitions Will Secure Future Potential
Mach Natural Resources aims to grow through strategic acquisitions during market distress, focusing on high-return projects and maintaining low costs to maximize earnings.Analysis Article • Mar 16
The Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Mach Natural Resources LP ( NYSE:MNR ), which a week ago released some...Seeking Alpha • Feb 07
Mach Natural Resources Reduces Its Interest Costs With A New Credit Facility
Summary Mach Natural Resources LP announced a roughly 12.9 million unit public offering at $15.50 per unit. The proceeds are going to help pay for a minor prior acquisition as well as pay down some of its term loan credit facility debt. Mach is also entering into a new credit facility and will pay down the rest of its term loan credit facility debt using that new facility. This is expected to save Mach $38 million in 2025 interest costs, as well as push out its credit facility maturity by over 2 years. This also potentially frees up more cash for distributions, since Mach's new credit facility doesn't have required payments. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 25
Sentiment Still Eluding Mach Natural Resources LP (NYSE:MNR)
It's not a stretch to say that Mach Natural Resources LP's ( NYSE:MNR ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.2x right...Analysis Article • Dec 11
Mach Natural Resources (NYSE:MNR) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Seeking Alpha • Nov 26
Mach Natural Resources: Expect A Smaller Distribution In 2025
Summary Mach Natural Resources announced $3.20 per unit in 2024 distributions. This was boosted by the sale of non-producing assets and drawing down some of its cash on hand. Mach is currently projected to generate $2.18 per unit in 2025 free cash flow. It also has $83 million (about $0.80 per unit) in 2025 term loan repayments to make. Mach's 2025 distributions are likely to add up to under $2 per unit. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 12
Mach Natural Resources: Using Acquisitions To Boost Near-Term Free Cash Flow
Summary Mach's Q2 2024 oil production was around expectations, while its production of natural gas and NGLs significantly outperformed expectations. Mach reduced its 2024 capex budget, leading to 2H 2024 oil production expectations being reduced by around 7%. Mach then announced a public offering to help pay for two acquisitions. These acquisitions may boost Mach's 2025 free cash flow per unit by $0.25 at mid-$60s oil. The Ardmore Basin assets appears to have high decline rates though, so the benefit in later years is more uncertain. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| MNR | US Oil and Gas | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -11.5% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 1Y | -15.0% | 40.3% | 12.1% |
Return vs Industry: MNR underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 40.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MNR underperformed the US Market which returned 11.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MNR volatility | |
|---|---|
| MNR Average Weekly Movement | 3.8% |
| Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement | 5.8% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.8% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: MNR has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MNR's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 840 | Tom Ward | www.machnr.com |
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) reserves. The company owns a portfolio of midstream assets, as well as owns gathering systems, processing plants. and water infrastructure.
Mach Natural Resources LP Fundamentals Summary
| MNR fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.86b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$100.61m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.30b |
18.5x
P/E Ratio1.4x
P/S RatioIs MNR overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MNR income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$1.30b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$591.35m |
| Gross Profit | US$707.05m |
| Other Expenses | US$606.44m |
| Earnings | US$100.61m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 0.60 |
| Gross Margin | 54.46% |
| Net Profit Margin | 7.75% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 63.5% |
How did MNR perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
17.7%
Current Dividend Yield282%
Payout RatioCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/20 00:22 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Mach Natural Resources LP is covered by 11 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Brian Velie | Capital One Securities, Inc. |
| John Phillips Johnston | Capital One Securities, Inc. |
| Charles Meade | Johnson Rice & Company, L.L.C. |