AvalonBay Communities, Inc.

NYSE:AVB Stock Report

Market Cap: US$25.2b

AvalonBay Communities Valuation

Is AVB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of AVB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: AVB ($178.96) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($281.98)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: AVB is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVB?

Key metric: As AVB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AVB. This is calculated by dividing AVB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AVB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.7x
EarningsUS$1.17b
Market CapUS$25.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AVB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AVB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.6x
EQR Equity Residential
20.2x-16.23%US$23.8b
ESS Essex Property Trust
19.6x-21.60%US$17.1b
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities
28.7x-8.52%US$16.1b
UDR UDR
85.9x7.78%US$13.5b
AVB AvalonBay Communities
21.7x-9.49%US$25.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AVB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x) compared to the peer average (38.6x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AVB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Residential REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AVB 21.7xIndustry Avg. 25.4xNo. of Companies3PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AVB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x) compared to the North American Residential REITs industry average (25.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.7x
Fair PE Ratio26.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AVB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AVB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$178.96
US$200.17
+11.85%
7.30%US$232.00US$172.00n/a21
Jan ’27US$181.31
US$203.40
+12.19%
7.49%US$235.00US$175.00n/a21
Dec ’26US$179.65
US$204.55
+13.86%
7.99%US$235.00US$175.00n/a21
Nov ’26US$173.92
US$214.43
+23.29%
5.94%US$235.00US$193.00n/a21
Oct ’26US$191.37
US$217.71
+13.77%
5.07%US$235.00US$199.00n/a21
Sep ’26US$195.85
US$219.65
+12.15%
5.57%US$249.00US$199.00n/a20
Aug ’26US$184.44
US$230.55
+25.00%
4.96%US$255.00US$211.00n/a20
Jul ’26US$203.28
US$231.38
+13.82%
4.40%US$255.00US$213.00n/a21
Jun ’26US$206.77
US$232.81
+12.59%
4.71%US$255.00US$213.00n/a21
May ’26US$209.00
US$234.43
+12.17%
4.81%US$265.00US$217.00n/a21
Apr ’26US$214.51
US$238.05
+10.97%
4.51%US$265.00US$220.00n/a21
Mar ’26US$226.18
US$237.62
+5.06%
4.69%US$265.00US$220.00n/a21
Feb ’26US$221.51
US$238.19
+7.53%
5.05%US$270.00US$220.00n/a21
Jan ’26US$219.97
US$239.67
+8.95%
4.74%US$270.00US$220.00US$181.3121
Dec ’25US$235.35
US$237.50
+0.91%
4.62%US$270.00US$220.00US$179.6520
Nov ’25US$216.28
US$235.40
+8.84%
4.18%US$255.00US$220.00US$173.9220
Oct ’25US$222.19
US$230.40
+3.70%
6.91%US$255.00US$194.00US$191.3720
Sep ’25US$225.73
US$222.42
-1.47%
6.51%US$255.00US$194.00US$195.8519
Aug ’25US$213.03
US$213.47
+0.21%
6.03%US$255.00US$194.00US$184.4419
Jul ’25US$204.32
US$209.10
+2.34%
4.10%US$230.00US$194.00US$203.2820
Jun ’25US$192.68
US$206.30
+7.07%
4.31%US$230.00US$194.00US$206.7720
May ’25US$187.93
US$201.48
+7.21%
5.20%US$230.00US$185.00US$209.0020
Apr ’25US$181.32
US$196.64
+8.45%
4.21%US$213.00US$182.00US$214.5121
Mar ’25US$178.14
US$196.02
+10.04%
4.27%US$213.00US$182.00US$226.1822
Feb ’25US$178.15
US$197.24
+10.71%
5.97%US$233.00US$175.00US$221.5121
Jan ’25US$187.22
US$193.95
+3.59%
7.02%US$233.00US$175.00US$219.9720
US$200.17
Fair Value
10.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
21
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/21 11:24
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/21 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is covered by 51 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jacob KilsteinArgus Research Company
Andrew BabinBaird
Ross SmotrichBarclays